OK.
How about a performance based bet, then?
Loser of the bet must display a signature on all his SDMB posts for three months as follows:
I’m BobLibDem, and I know nothing about Wisconsin politics. So if I’m posting about Wisconsin politics, disregard this post as utter nonsense.
-or-
I’m Bricker, and I know nothing about Wisconsin politics. So if I’m posting about Wisconsin politics, disregard this post as utter nonsense.
Just to be a chops-buster, actually they did win control of the senate in the June recalls, although it didn’t mean much in the end:
from wiki Wisconsin 2012 recall elections entry
Noted. When I said “control,” I was thinking more actual, as opposed to nominal, control, but your point is well-taken. They controlled the Senate but only while it was not in session.
That’s a great idea. Let’s give Democrats control of all chambers everywhere - but only while they are not in session.
By God, Chauncey, never mind spotting the Tufted Throat-Warbler Mangrove, look over there! The rarest bird of all, Republican humor!
Also there’s the fact that I meant to post 2012 recall instead of 2010! :smack:
Surprised nobody picked up on that.
I haven’t lived in Wisconsin for 35 years and the right wing takeover of the Milwaukee radio air waves happened after I left, but Mark Belling and Charlie Sykes, the two radio voices mentioned, certainly fit what I would call racist haters.
Sykes wrote a book entitled, “A Nation of moochers” and calls Michelle Obama “mooch”. Belling called a young black Milwaukee man who had died in police custody a “piece of garbage” and attacked “the pigs of mothers who are too lazy to put their children in a crib and roll over the top of them while sleeping on a futon on the floor.”
Unlike Faux News which routinely gets caught in lies by Jon Stewart, among others, apparently there is no counterweight to hate radio in that state. They control the air free of fact checking.Naw, those kinds of bets are silly. And let’s not forget the huge pile of money at Walker’s disposal. I think he’s going to lose, but it wouldn’t be the biggest upset in history if he didn’t.
Well given that a prosecutor has released his findings, this isn’t JAQing off, notwithstanding Bricker’s helpful quoted qualifications upthread.
Give me 5 to 1 odds on !(B) and we have a basis for PM negotiation. I’m thinking 5 vs 1 week of signatures. Also, I’d add a hyperlink. But I don’t think you’re that confident on that score though. And I don’t have an opinion on (A). (And I think it’s meaningless to just bet if you’re in a pissing contest. The point is to fight ignorance, mostly your own regarding modeling and prediction.)
Still, methinks that’s a pretty good structure for friendly SDMB wagers. It’s not entirely perfect as posting for 5 weeks is probably less than 5x worse than posting for one week. But that issue could be set aside: it’s the setting of odds that are meaningful. Not sure what I would think of an effusive 104:1 offer though. I might also petition the mods to open up an MfM bet tally thread in Marketplace, if I could work out a tenuous loophole of some sort.
I’m MfM and I know nothing about Wisconsin politics. So I outsource my opinions to Charlie Cook. 
Regardless if you don’t like the way he reported it, a number of inner city women did claim to roll over and kill their infants. It’s been a bit of an epidemic around here lately.
What fact checking needs to be done? It’swhat happened. You seem to imply he was lying.
Heh.
No, I’m 5:1 against indictment. I’d give 3:2 on election.
No worries, but that won’t work for me as 40% odds are within the range of “Tossup”.
[hijack] Again, the point of these bets is to learn something. Even most experts don’t have a clear understanding of what they know and don’t know – which is why there are experts on expert opinion. (Key trick: after you ask for a prediction, you get them to imagine themselves being wrong. Most experts can think of a plausible counter-scenario if prompted - but they do require such prompting.)
Bricker’s mistake during the Romney election was to focus on an economic metric (the unemployment rate) which had been passed over by Ray Fair, an economist who had been studying election models for decades (albeit for maybe 5 weeks every 4 years). The deeper problem with the unemployment rate was that it didn’t have strong relationship between its level and the margin of victory or defeat. So while you could retrospectively generate a superficially strong rule, it wasn’t likely to be a robust one.
More generally, you need to figure out who those who are a) experts and b) straight shooters and listen to them. Don’t worry about their partisan affiliation: do worry about whether they are grinding an axe. Some (not all) of the articles in the Economist are decent examples. At their best, the writers will inform you of their opinion, while providing you with sufficient information and context to permit a range of reasonable disagreement.
Hijack2: Bayesian thinking. As Bricker has been willing to lay odds on his opinion of this case going forward and as I have little intuition on the subject, my subjective probability of indictment has moved from perhaps 50-50 (or null)* to somewhere in the direction of (but also short of) 17%. Which is intentionally vague: I’m just saying that Bayesian updating is an aspect of rational thought.
Dismissing the mothers as “lazy pigs” is an inflammatory label and does nothing to actually address the issue. These co-sleeping deaths occur in the poorest parts of Milwaukee. Drugs and alcohol often play a role, as does the fact that many inner city mothers either can’t afford cribs or they haven’t been educated as to how babies are supposed to sleep.
Because, just like Faux News, they lie whenever and however they please?
Someone uptread questioned the racism of Milwaukee hate radio. The story I linked had a couple of examples which I then cited.
If you think Rush Limbaugh and Faux News don’t lie every day, you need to get out of your bubble.
I just read that recent polls have shown Burke and Walker about tied.
Given the higher likelihood of Republicans voting, even polls now indicate a 53-47 type Walker victory in the fall.
I would estimate Burke needs about 6 point lead in the polls to be about actually even.
This also ignores any new and effective Republican vote suppression efforts. I understand they may bring armed “poll watchers” into Democratic precincts.
How did you reach this understanding?
He made it up.
WTF?
Belling did not make up stories about inner city women killing their children by rolling over on them. It’s happened several times in Milwaukee. How about giving a cite about any lies he’s broadcast?
And as far as his terminology to describe people, remember Belling is not a newscaster. He is a talk show host and he frequently admits that he is biased.
Have you ever heard him when he hosts Limbaughs’ show? He’s nowhere near as obnoxious as he is on his own show.
Yet you post like you’re an expert, quoting an article from a guy who doesn’t know what he’s talking about, whose one source made half that shit up.
Yes, it is. But so what? As I posted earlier, Belling is not a newscaster and routinely makes that point abundantly clear. He is a talk show host and his agenda is to comment on issues as he sees fit. I’m the first to say that while I agree with most of his politics, I find him to be obnoxious and irritating. But so what? He is not a newscaster but a talk show host. And he frequently makes clear that he is biased.
Anyone comparing belling to Fox news is a fool. He never claims to be a newscaster.
If you don’t like his comments turn the dial. He does not claim to be “the news”.
But I’ve never known Belling to outright lie on something. That claim has not been substantiated and the poster who made it has yet to submit a cite.