Can Scott Walker be re-elected Governor of Wisconsin?

[BigAppleBucky]

Brown Shirts to show up armed at Wisconsin polling places in support of Walker.

Story

A self-described militia group claims to be checking names on the 2012 Scott Walker recall petition and plans to confront those found to have outstanding warrants or tax defaults at the polls on Nov. 4.

“We prefer our people be armed,” reads a Facebook post by Wisconsin Poll Watcher Militia, screen captured on a blog at Politicususa.com. “Some will be heading to some of Milwaukee, Racine, and Beloit’s worst areas. We will be armed with a list of people to look for at each location.”

[BigAppleBucky]

@BigAppleBucky

Brown Shirts to show up armed at Wisconsin polling places in support of Walker.

Story

One local comment:

This is going to be an ugly, ugly election this fall in Wisconsin.

If the ID remains in effect, expect the time to vote to at least double. Expect many angry voters. Add in angry vigilantes and you have a volatile mixture.

I expect the entire election will be challenged in the courts, because we can’t seem to settle anything anymore without a court ruling.

[BrainGlutton]

@BigAppleBucky

Brown Shirts to show up armed at Wisconsin polling places in support of Walker.

Story

. . . Poll Watcher Militia . . .

Y’know, things in America have reached a point where I’m actually surprised that I have never before seen those three words together.

[eschereal]

Can a person with a warrant be prevented from voting on that basis? Is that not presumption of guilt?

[Reginald_Hobbes]

The facebook page is only four days old, and no evidence of this “group” existing before that.

I’m not buying that this is real.

[BigAppleBucky]

@Reginald_Hobbes

The facebook page is only four days old, and no evidence of this “group” existing before that.

I’m not buying that this is real.

It would be nice if that were the case. This website seems extremely elaborate to be a hoax:
http://putwisconsinfirst.com/

Heck of a lot of work compared to, say, the fake GOP websites that appear to be Democrats, but were actually GOP fundraising sites.

[BigAppleBucky]

Lawsuit filed by Wisconsin Club for Growth thrown out by federal court

In its decision, the appeals court panel found Randa’s *(US District Court Judge) *ruling halting the investigation into Walker’s campaign and 29 conservative and Republican groups active during the 2011 and 2012 recall elections was “imprudent,” “unnecessary” and “an abuse of discretion.” The judges found the injunction violated a federal law that gives broad latitude to state courts to handle their own cases.

The ruling written by Judge Frank Easterbrook also poked holes in the plaintiffs’ argument that coordination between political campaigns and ostensibly independent groups was legally protected so long as those efforts did not expressly advocate for or against the election of any candidate. The court found that Randa’s decision “broke new ground” — but not in a good way.

“Until the district court’s opinion in this case, neither a state nor a federal court had held that Wisconsin’s (or any other state’s) regulation of coordinated fund-raising and issue advocacy violates the First Amendment,” Easterbrook wrote.

“The (U.S.) Supreme Court has stated repeatedly that although the First Amendment protects truly independent expenditures for political speech, the government is entitled to regulate coordination between candidates’ campaigns and purportedly independent groups.”

The state court had quashed subpoenas to some of the groups supporting Walker, so this decision might not actually get the investigation moving again.

[Shodan]

@BigAppleBucky

Lawsuit filed by Wisconsin Club for Growth thrown out by federal court

The state court had quashed subpoenas to some of the groups supporting Walker, so this decision might not actually get the investigation moving again.

And the reason the subpoenas were quashed was because of a lack of probable cause that any crime had been committed. So we are right back where we started - the anti-Walker coalition is hampered in its efforts by an inconvenient lack of evidence for their accusations.

Regards,
Shodan

[adaher]

Nothing here about Burke’s plagiarism scandal? That’s gotta hurt a little.

[BrainGlutton]

Michelle Obama is campaigning for Burke – the goal is to whip up enthusiasm and turnout among the urban base, especially Milwaukee.

Burke needs those constituencies, and then some, to defeat Walker. In 2012, 74 percent of Milwaukee’s voters turned out, which was higher than the national average of 60 percent turnout in urban areas. The Burke campaign wants that kind of turnout, which could be hard to achieve, especially in the wake of an appeals court decision reinstating the state’s new voter ID law, which could disenfranchise as many as 300,000 voters who don’t have state-approved identification. Most of them are Democrats, and that’s the point of the GOP’s voter-ID crusade since Obama was elected in 2008.

The race remains incredibly close: among likely voters, crucial in a typically low-turnout midterm race, one recent poll showed Burke ahead, but the last one showed Walker with a slight edge. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s reliable political reporter, Craig Gilbert, noted that the Democratic base seems as fired up as the Republican base, a plus for Burke. Walker’s polling margin in the white north and west precincts of the state is much smaller than it was this close to election day in 2010 or 2012, indicating that Burke can pick up some votes in those GOP-friendly areas.

Yet Burke can’t win without turning out the party’s most loyal voters in Milwaukee, and that’s where the First Lady came in. She talked about the country’s declining poverty rate among children, its rising high school graduation rate, the falling numbers of uninsured thanks to the Affordable Care Act, a pitch crafted for her audience.

[BigAppleBucky]

The most accurate poll in 2010 and '12 was from Marquette. That poll now has Walker with a 50-45% lead among likely voters. More than the margin of error.

The lead among registered voters is smaller at 46-45%. The difference indicates to me that Republicans have been more fired up over the last couple of months than the Democrats. (Burke lead among likely voters a few weeks ago.)

Unless there is some sort of major gaffe on Walker’s part, the race appears to be over.

[BrainGlutton]

Interview with Mary Burke.

[BigAppleBucky]

@Terr

Is it illegal for a politician to solicit donations going to a PAC?

PAC no. “Social Welfare organizations” yes.

Why?

Because PACs must disclose their donors and donations.

“Social Welfare” organizations do not have those disclosure requirements which is why money to them is also known as “dark money”.

The tax code requires that the major efforts of “social welfare” organizations NOT be for political purposes if such organizations want to maintain their tax free status.

(Remember, PACs are always tax free as long as they disclose properly.) But not dark money organizations. Coordination between dark money groups and the Walker campaign is clearly a violation election laws in Wisconsin. And also, it seems to me, of the US tax code.

Apparently the IRS has been intimidated into not enforcing the code against dark money organizations which, to me, is the real IRS scandal.

In related news

The US Supreme Court put a hold on the restrictive Wisconsin voter ID law. No final decision has been made, but the law will not be in effect for the 2014 election.

[adaher]

@BigAppleBucky

Apparently the IRS has been intimidated into not enforcing the code against dark money organizations which, to me, is the real IRS scandal.

.

The IRS has been intimidated? I don’t think so. The IRS at WORST, from your point of view is enforcing the law as it always has. It was the attempt to tighten things up,a decision made by people who weren’t authorized to make such decisions, that was the change.

It would be like someone deep in the bowels of the IRS bureaucracy deciding on their own that any church that hosted a political figure would permanently lose their tax exempt status.

[Hayden]

Burke is like a deer in headlights. God help us if she wins.

Also the repeal of the Voter ID Law is laughable. Of course the left accuses the right of voter suppression, but it’s such a bogus argument. I’m pretty neutral as a voter and don’t stick to party lines, but anyone can see that the Left’s argument does not hold water.

[Chronos]

Which part of the argument fails? The numbers show quite clearly that voter ID laws do, in fact, suppress turnout, and some key Republicans have even admitted openly that that’s their purpose.

[Lobohan]

@Hayden

Burke is like a deer in headlights. God help us if she wins.

Also the repeal of the Voter ID Law is laughable. Of course the left accuses the right of voter suppression, but it’s such a bogus argument. I’m pretty neutral as a voter and don’t stick to party lines, but anyone can see that the Left’s argument does not hold water.

It is a fact that we know of very little, in the range of tens, cases of in-person voter fraud.

It is a fact that Voter ID laws put a burden on people that are very disproportionately Democrat.

In light of those two facts, what is hard to believe? That the GOP would be so vile as to try and keep poor people from voting? If you want to legitimately enact voter ID, make good faith efforts to get every citizen an ID first.

[BrainGlutton]

@Hayden

Burke is like a deer in headlights.

What do you base that on?

[eschereal]

@BrainGlutton

What do you base that on?

Probably that there are a lot of deer in Wisconsin – and a lot of headlights. The boilerplate press copy describes the first debate as basically a wash, though Politicus is, not surprisingly, calling it a Burke win.

If anyone epitomizes deer-in-headlights, it has to be Walker, who seems like if he were facing a snarling mountain lion, he would still be trying to decide whether to run or to hide as it was pulling his liver out for a snack.

[Hayden]

@Lobohan

It is a fact that we know of very little, in the range of tens, cases of in-person voter fraud.

It is a fact that Voter ID laws put a burden on people that are very disproportionately Democrat.

In light of those two facts, what is hard to believe? That the GOP would be so vile as to try and keep poor people from voting? If you want to legitimately enact voter ID, make good faith efforts to get every citizen an ID first.

Isn’t it obvious that there wouldn’t be many confirmed cases of voter fraud? How can we confirm whether or not it’s happening if we’re not checking IDs?! Example: You need to be 21 to purchase alcohol. If you weren’t required to show an ID while purchasing it, do you think there would be many people charged with purchasing underage? Of course not.

While I do understand that it would make it a little bit harder for an extreme minority, almost no one is prevented from voting. It just requires a little more effort. While I do understand that this can potentially lead to voter suppression, that is their choice in the large majority of cases. I understand that there are rare circumstances where some don’t possess their birth certificate or SSN. The system is not perfect but I think it is required to maintain the integrity of our voting system.

Don’t you find it insane that all of the programs/tasks listed below require a photo ID, yet deciding on the direction of the nation does not? It’s insane, on principle alone.

Things that require a photo ID:
-Driving
-Opening a Bank Account
-Welfare
-Food Stamps
-Medicaid
-Unemployment
-Social Security
-Gambling
-Purchasing Alcohol
-Hospital Visits