Scenario for a Jones win in AL: Moore runs for the nom, loses, and his ego drives him to launch an independent bid, pulling off enough that Jones beats a more generic Republican. Unlikely but not impossible. And if it happens you heard it here first!
Quite reasonable. Given my rather blemished track record in that department, I don’t know why I continue to make the occasional prediction, but I apparently can’t help myself.
But I was really just wondering what you’d heard from the local news and whatnot about who might run against Tillis. That would be more than I know already.
Just because we’ll almost certainly lose Alabama, doesn’t mean that we’re guaranteed not to win the Senate. There are a lot of other opportunities.
Yeah, on the predictions section of the 2020 elections, there are 5 tossup or “lean R” states that are in play and are currently held by Republicans. The 5 states are ones that I would have picked had I been forced to pick 5, so it shows that the predictors are not crazily out of sync with the common wisdom. However, I do not know how much they have taken into account voter suppression efforts in two of these states.
I however, would not accept odds of it flipping either way, it’s too close to call in my opinion. Too many unknown unknowns. If the predictors are off and there is a systematic shift redward before the election the dems are toast, but the winds could just as easily blow the other way.
Doesn’t Alabama have a sore loser law?
Yes, it would still take a miracle. Jones squeaked by in a special election held during Christmas time and that was after a special primary and then a special run off election.
Much easier to whip people up to vote in a general election and the news won’t be all over Moore during a presidential election where we know Alabama is heavily Trump.
Quick search and yes but it wouldn’t prevent a write in campaign.
I never thought I would say this, but any vote for any republican labels you as a traitor to the United States. Republicans need to be shown that things like Trump simply will not be tolerated. I believe the only way to do that is to send a very, very strong message. I don’t care if you’re running for County Clerk or Judge or Senate or House or Dog Catcher. Remove all of them.
Every last one of them.
Keep in mind that if a miracle occurs and the Dems somehow eke out 50 Senators alongside a Dem VP, Joe Manchin would then likely flip to the R side just as he flirted with doing in 2010 and 2014.
Face it, McConnell is there to stay, and since he is Lawful Evil to Trump’s Chaotic Evil, things won’t improve much at all when the next president gets sworn in.
Yes. A look at it in the context of Moore’s last run when the state GOP was looking at pulling his nomination includes this:
Correct. But can be a write in candidate. See post 27.
According to electoral-vote.com, a poll matching Tillis in a hypothetical run with a state senator named Erica Smith had Tillis behind by 46-39.
See ElectoralVote.
Disclaimers: I have no idea who Erica Smith is (I don’t live in NC), other than this one mention, and no idea whether she has any intention of running; and of course it’s early, early, early. So I don’t know that I would take it too seriously. Still, for a sitting senator to be underwater against a theoretical opponent in a state that leans toward his political party…well, it ain’t nothing.
Which leads me to add that it isn;t necessarily a killer blow if well-known people like Hickenlooper or O’Rourke decline to run against the incumbents. Obviously it’s great if you can get a big and popular name to enter the race. OTOH, Bredesen in TN last year didn;t come close to beating the non-incumbent GOP candidate Blackburn (in a race that many felt was very winnable), and who had heard of Stacy Abrams before she nearly won the governor’s race in GA? The Collinses and Gardners and Ernsts of the Senate may not be challenged by folks we’ve heard of at this point; doesn’t mean the race will be a guaranteed loser.
Assuming that your groupings are 95% chance to go D, 72.5% chance, 50% chance, 27.5% chance, and 5% chance, the average result that I get is 20.6 Republicans and 14.4 Democrats.
Not impossible, but far from certain.
I guess, in a sense, having more people on one side at the start isn’t necessarily helpful to that side. Even if most of them are more likely to maintain their seat, there’s still more of them to lose their seat.
Regression towards the mean.
That’s 35.
Also, these aren’t independent results: national factors will affect multiple races in similar ways. But that’s just a quibble.
Quibbles aside, how does your analysis leave the Senate after the election? How many D, how many R in total?
Hm…as you say, there should be 34 openings not 35.
…
Looks like I miscounted the solid Ds. I counted eight instead of seven, accidentally. That puts it pretty solidly down as 20.5 to 13.5.
Certainly, this is all a crap analysis. Now that I’ve looked up the better numbers on Wikipedia, I could probably do something better but, with the current setup, we would expect 51 or 52 seats for Republicans, 46 or 47 for Democrats, and 2 Independents (Sanders and King).
Basically, I would suggest frying sausages for the Crocodile God, wishing that Trump wrecks the economy.
Thanks for a completely rational post.
Back when the American colonies were near to seceding from Britain, Samuel Adams was (probably) one of the crazy hotheads who ran around, dressing like a Native American, setting things on fire, and throwing stuff into the ocean, because he had decided that he just couldn’t stand the Brits and how they treated the Americans.*
His cousin John was a lot more cool-headed and reasonable and, I assume, to some extent looked at Samuel and had to restrain his inner facepalm as the guy ran around spouting off crazy nonsense. But that didn’t mean that John didn’t, at the base of things, agree with Sam about the British and the need to secede. He just thought that there were better ways to go about it that were more productive than Sam was getting up to.
But so, yes, enipla’s post is a bit overwrought.
At this moment in time, though, I’m loath to say that I basically have to agree with him. The President has significantly and continuously broken his oath of office, in multiple and varied ways. And while the Democrats have ignored most of them, that’s because they’re sort of stupid and fixated on Collusion. But the Republicans really have no excuse. They’re harboring a person who cheered for other countries to attack our own, who stole from American vets, who jokes about trying to become President for Life, who considered trading away the country and people of Montenegro to Russia in exchange for a deal with North Korea, who orders his people regularly to break rather than preserve the laws of our nation…and I could go on for a while, before even getting to the things we only believe he’s probably guilty of as well. Those are all things we already know to be true.
The Republicans of today are despicable and, so far as I am concerned, a person is just as much a traitor to our nation if he has rejected our Constitution, its laws, and the oaths within it as if he decided to work for a foreign nation.
Today, any Republicans who support Donald Trump - which is almost all of them - are, as silly as it may sound to say, just a bunch of traitors to the flag and deserve to be treated with scorn and disgust at every turn.
- Not necessarily an accurate depiction.
IIRC, I don’t often agree with D’Anconia. But I do here.
I believe that Trump is at least in the colloquial, a traitor. We are not at war with Russia, so the constitutional 'giving aid and comfort to the enemy may not apply.
I firmly believe that Trump and his team willing accepted help from Russia. To what end? That’s difficult to nail down. Russia clearly wanted Trump to become President. Possibly because they know he’s basically a fuck up. Possibly for favors in return and or that they have compromising info on him in the form of embarrassing stunts, or simply that he’s on the hook for a lot of money. Everyone has to decide for themselves it that should be considered treason. I do.
I call supporting a person that acts in such a way treasonous. Sure, there are republicans that don’t support Trump. And may find them in his tent by these unfortunate events. They can either denounce Trump, leave the tent or get voted out. A message must be sent. This shit should not be tolerated. YMMV.
Trump and the GOP are traitors on a far wider scale than just this country.
They have been nearly unanimous for decades in their opposition to doing anything about climate change, usually denying its very existence. And now, as the shit is hitting the fan, they haven’t changed a bit. Here’s Trump blocking written testimony from the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research outlining the catastrophic threat climate change poses - one whose effects, as the story at the link notes, our military is already preparing for.
ETA: The Bureau of Intelligence and Research was the intel agency that got Iraq right.