For an economy that so many smart economists thought was almost stagnant (and some thinking recessing), it seems that the GDP number that came out today (2.0%) looked very damn good. Since these numbers can be “revised” twice before they are final I can’t help but think that someone in the Commerce Dept. made the numbers a little happy to allay fears of a recession.
What goes on during these revisions?
Is the Commerce Dept. non-partisan?
Just thought I’d give it one more chance.
The GDP-per-capita numbers are a poor indicator of general prosperity for the simple reason that Conrad Black making $60 million does not have the same effect on the economy as every Canadian making $2.
The question isn’t about GDP per capita as a measure of general well-being. It’s about changes in quarterly GDP as a quick-and-dirty measure of the economy’s health, for which it’s perfectly reasonably measure.
The head of the Commerce Department is a political appointee, and I suppose it’s possible that the numbers could be “greased.” But I doubt that they are. Wall Street wants accurate numbers out of the Commerce Department, not political spin. If an administration was found to be covertly faking GDP statistics for political reasons (as opposed to openly faking things, like Budget estimates;), they would face the wrath of a furious and united financial sector. No President wants to face that.
Note that quarterly GDP numbers aren’t very accurate, though, and are frequently revised. So it’s entirely possible that last quarter’s estimate will be revised downward.