Tiger is safe to Cog Hill if he shoots 72, IMO. If shoots a 74, he might be in trouble.
He probably needs at least a 66 to get into top 10.
If he shoots another indifferent round tomorrow, he will need his best finish of the year in Chicago to get into the Tour Championship.
As far as his ranking, if he does not have an outstanding week in Chicago, he will lose his ranking, it is only a matter of time. If its not Mickelson, it will be Westwood.
Sitting idle, he is losing 0.16 pts off his average per week. Other players are losing points off their average as well, but Westwood is also losing tournaments off his divisor. Tiger is not losing tournaments from his divisor. He is already at the minimum.
realistic assumption for tomorrow and next week-two 10th place finishes.
His average at the Ryder Cup will be 9.1. His average when he next tees it up in a stroke play tournament , in November, in China will be aroung 8.1 Phil is at 8.99 right now, and Westwood is 8.82 (and Westwoods is not moving much as he is losing tournaments from his divisor.)
And the same philosophy that is helping Tiger maintain his number 1 ranking this year, will be hurting him next year as he tries to get back his #1 ranking. He has a lot of 2010 baggage that will be weighing him down.
Last year, #30 had 1532 points before the points were reset going into the Tour Championship.
As of tonight, Tiger has 1032 points. If last year is any indication, then Tiger needs 500 points which is equivalent to a solo 6th place finish. Anything better than a 3-way tie for fifth, he should get into the TC. Sixth place (or 3 way T5 finish) should be close, either way, and anything worse will probably be out of the TC.
I read speculation on a golf forum, that the top 30 cutoff will probably be lower than the 1532 number this year. The guy pointed out that a lot of this years points were pilfered by PGA Tour Non members. (PGATour non-members won three of the four majors this year, and 2nd place in three of the majors were also from PGATour non-members) Here is what the top 10 earns each week in the playoffs.
1st place … 2500 pts
2nd … 1500
3rd … 1000
4th … 750
5th … 550
6th … 500
7th … 450
8th … 425
9th … 400
10th … 375
Players want to be in the top 5 going into the TC, the only way TW can do that is to win. if they get to 10th place, they have a reasonable chance to win the Fedex cup, He needs to finish in a two way tie for second to get into the top 10. (unless the stars align very strangely).
FTR, I read speculation on a golf forum, that the top 30 cutoff will probably be lower than the last year’s 1532 points. The guy pointed out that a lot of this years points were “pilfered” by PGA Tour Non members.
*PGATour non-members won three of the four majors this year, (McDowell, Oosthuizen, Kaymer)
*2nd place in three of the majors were also from PGATour non-members (Westwood, Havret, Westwood)
*Westwood also won a PGATour tourney in Memphis.
Tiger sucked again. He is 2 over while Kuchar is -7. Last week they said he had to get to 5th place to continue. That is not likely to happen. He will struggle to make the cut.
Phil is even par first round.
he is in the process of redoing his swing again. He was the best golfer in the world, you can see the pressure to change. Can’t just stay the best, what fun is that?
TW better hurry up if he is going to shoot in the mid 60’s today. Even par after 12 holes. Tomorrow will probably be his last round on the PGATour in 2010, unless he makes something happen late today and tomorrow.