Canada and the Coronavirus

I’m tired of this too. I am completely mystified as to why you are angry at the government of Ontario for a failure that does not appear to actually exist, but not at the federal government for a failure that does.

This is not a small matter. There will be more pandemics, an honest accounting of the government’s failures matters, and the federal government has done an objectively atrocious job. They have been shielded from criticism largely because the Trump administration down south was such a dumpster fire by comparison. I’m not saying the Ontario government has done a good job here - they have not - but their failures aren’t with getting vaccines into humans. So far they’ve done a good enough job of that and I have every confidence they’ll get Ontario’s vaccines into Ontarians; it’s not really that difficult an exercise.

I hope and expect that everyone can have a vaccine by mid-summer. This talk of varients is causing stress that vaccines can alleviate. Canada has spent more than most countries to pre-buy vaccine doses and we are way down the list of developed countries in getting shots in arms. The United States celebrated 50 million doses delivered yesterday. That does not speak well of the Canadian government and I will be interested in reading how the contracts they negotiated with suppliers put us so low down the list in regard to priority.

My parents are both over 80 and have not yet had the opportunity to schedule a vaccine shot. I want to be able to see them this summer as they both also have other health issues. Canada needs 60 million doses, not 20 million.

I am also feeling the fatigue of this situation, and having an effective vaccine that is not available is frustrating.

I’m seeing numbers like this from the feds:

This shows that about 1/3 of the population could be fully vaccinated (both shots) by June, excluding AZ. Hillier is saying we won’t even get to people under 60 before July. The local PHU are proceeding with their own plans.

Who is wrong here?

National Post has an interesting article comparing vaccination rates and schedules in all of the provinces and territories:

Wait, how did they know the second number without knowing the first?

No one is wrong. The federal government is being optimistic in an effort to deflect criticism, but tey aren’t lying, they’re just makiing optimistic assumptions there; “if additional vaccine candidates are given the green light by Health Canada.” The provincial government is still making projections based on what they are pretty confident they will receive, not what they hope will happen.

I am still curious as to what the provincial government has done wrong. If they get the vaccines, the vaccines will be administered. Ontario does not have a bunch of vaccines unused. They use all the vaccines the federal government gives them. The problem so far has been supply. That’s not an opinion, it’s a fact.

The feds numbers are based on approved vaccines currently under contract. Millions of doses are set to be delivered. This does not include J&J and others as they are not approved yet.

My issue is that the province does not feel like they are standing on the track waiting to accept the baton. The fact that the PHUs have had to set up their own web sites is part of it. York, Guelph, and Ottawa are accepting appointments and giving shots this week.

Nationally we have only administered 77% of doses received, or about a 10-12 day supply.

As long as they don’t get it in the way of the local PHUs, I really don’t care but I have faith the Ford government will screw it up still.

That chart seems useless to me. Much more useful in terms of assessing provincial performance would be to show how much of the vaccine they’ve actually received has been distributed.

Last I looked most provinces were in the 80-90% range, meaning the problem isn’t really with the provinces.

It’s sad to see percentage numbers that low. I was just listening to an American podcast where they were complaining that having only 20% of the population vaccinated by now was scandalous and outrageous. We are at 3.8%.

The first number is the number of people fully vaccinated, while the second is the proportion who’s received at least one dose. Quebec has pursued a “breadth-first” approach, giving one dose to as many people as possible instead of two doses to a smaller number of people. If the website I’m looking at is correct, nobody has received two doses in Quebec, which would explain the N/A. (Although that website says the same thing for Nunavut, in contradiction with the above information.)

This seemed so self evident to me that I didn’t even bother commenting on it, but now I’m wondering if Fins or anyone else actually thinks these numbers are indicative of some sort of provincial failures.

PROTIP: they aren’t.

Saskatchewan at 107% administration rate. Obviously nailing the extra dose from each vial trick. I have to say after how crappy we’ve been doing over the past few months it’s nice to see that at least our vaccination effort is efficient.

Texas removed their mask mandate yesterday at a time they are reporting 3x the new cases and 5x the deaths per capita than we are in Ontario. Look at all the stats, not just one.

What’s indicative of a failure at the provincial level are Hillier’s comments that 60 year olds won’t be vaccinated until July. It’s wrong and it indicates that the province has not properly addressed the challenges in delivering the volume of vaccine incoming starting immediately.

Rick, I think you live in Halton. Why did Halton launch their own web site and start vaccinating seniors before the provincial web site has even launched?

https://www.halton.ca/For-Residents/New-Coronavirus/COVID-19-Vaccines

This will be a failure if, in fact, there are vaccinations for those people and they don’t get them. I am unconcerned with “comments,” and concerned with people getting vaccinated.

If the federal government actually delivers enough vaccines to Ontario to vaccinate people, and for some reason the vaccines are not used, that will be a failure. I see no evidence that will happen.

Ontario managed to deliver over 5.1 million influenza doses in by November 2020. If you assume the delivery period was October to December that would be 400,000 a week. So as with everything, supply chain is the critical piece for right now.

There is a business based in Quebec that allows those in Canada to fly to the US (Plattsburgh, NY - about 10 miles for the boarder), and their cars to be transported to the US, reunited them, all within the COVID-19 protocols, and setting them off in the land of the free and the home of covid to return home to O Canada. Additionally the Adirondack mountains in NY is a Canadian tourist destination for many (slightly) north of the boarder.

What if you own your own place?

Just because you own doesn’t mean you can’t also rent.

As an American living in Canada, I’m mulling over the idea of making a trip back to see my family (whom I haven’t seen in well over a year) and getting the vaccination while I’m there. I’m really not looking forward to another summer stuck inside the house. I just found out that I’m eligible to get my vaccination in Utah (my last place of US residence) as of today.

But as my wife points out, we’d have to get the two shots, separated by two weeks, and we’d have to quarantine (at our own expense) when we got back to Canada… so that plan probably won’t work out.

It’s gonna be a long summer. The only thing I can hope is that once enough Americans get their vaccination, the US will allow Canada to get some of the shots as well.

More good news on the vaccine front:

You know what? At ~7000 new cases a day we are actually a bit below the solid Grey line “With spread of VOC, current public health measures will be insufficient, and epidemic resurgence is forecast” on Slide 13 the one with Variants of Concern from the February update on COVID-19

damn it.