On the plus side, wasn’t the worst case scenario supposed to be ∞ cases/day by now?
Eta: it’s not a bit below the grey line. We’re into April and the grey line is over 10 000.
Slide 13 Solid Grey Line in April has 10,000 cases. Our current 7,000 cases puts us below that line and within the model confidence interval. Which I guess is winning?
Slide 11 Solid Grey Line in April has under 1,250, or ~3,300 if we open back up. VOCs have made an obvious impact on case loading and consequently on hospitalizations and ICU loading.
New March view
The variants didn’t cause any surge like this in the UK or Denmark when they became dominant there. We may have to accept the fact that this surge could be caused by whatever magic caused the other two.
I too am upset the world didn’t line up with your expectations.
I’m not upset.
So what caused the first two surges that is no longer present?
Cases are rising steeply in Alberta as they are in other provinces as well. New restrictions are being put back in place such as no seating inside of restaurants. My wife and daughter where in a restaurant yesterday, and a group of 5 people all refused to wear masks loudly, even after being asked several times. They were still served.
Alberta made a new change to the vaccine rules that mean I can get vaccinated now. My wife already has her first shot. I phoned around today but the pharmacies do not have the vaccine in stock yet.
I’ve signed up with my local pharmacy, and am just waiting for the shipment to come in. I also signed up with Alberta Health, and have arranged an appointment for the 28th… if the pharmacy doesn’t get to me first.
Got my first shot yesterday, yeah!, from my regular pharmacist who just got the shipment in - Astrazennaca. It seems supply is getting a bit better.
Wow!! I innocently drove over to Home Depot today to pick up a minor item, and was astonished to find the huge parking lot virtually empty. Then I saw the sign at the door saying the store was only open for curbside pickup. Long story short, I soon discovered that this was the case everywhere throughout Ontario (and some other provinces) for all except designated essential services. I had typically only needed to go to grocery and liquor stores and found them almost normal, except for mask-wearing and distancing, but wow! Aside from those, retailing is practically shut down (as of April 3, as I later found out, due to the third wave). I had no idea.
I went home and ordered it for in-store pickup early this afternoon, and called the store just now to find out why the hell I still don’t have my “ready for pickup” email. Apparently it’s taking them one to two days to process this stuff. I could have walked into the store and out again in ten minutes. Or maybe had the same thing actually delivered from Amazon sooner.
I ordered 3 tubes of caulking, a pack of lightbulbs, a pack of washers, and a plumbing compression fitting yesterday morning from HD. I’m still waiting.
I’m glad I wasn’t dealing with a plumbing emergency.
Alberta government defers spring sitting for at least two weeks:
It appears that as of about a week ago, the number of Canadians with at least the first shot of vaccine is only around 30%. So it’s no wonder that case counts are still rising, and Ontario is nearly shut down except for essential services. Thankfully every member of my immediate family now has at least the first shot of Pfizer, either because of age qualification or some other qualifying factor, but I guess this is far from typical. Nevertheless, the mass vaccination clinic I attended was pretty busy, and progress is being made.
We are over 40% of the eligible population with at least 1 shot and adding 1-1.25% per day, but the smart people are saying we can’t vaccinate our way out of the variants. The R0 has been hovering around 1 in Ontario so it’s not getting much better yet and the hospitalizations and ICU admissions are a lagging KPI.
I’m at least feeling like there is an end in sight.
There’s a joke making the rounds about how Wal-Mart and other big-box retailers have to cope with the “non-essential goods” rules. First of all, as you may know, in some provinces, retailers such as Wal-Mart have had to rope off everything except groceries and pharmacy. With that said, here’s the joke:
A guy walks into Wal-Mart. He wants to buy a pair of pants and a shirt. Upon finding that the clothing section is roped off, he asks why. “I’m sorry, sir,” comes the reply, “but clothing is not deemed essential under provincial rules.” The guy leaves.
Fifteen minutes later, the guy returns, buck naked, except for a pair of shoes. “Sir!” says the greeter, “You can’t come in here like that!”
“Why not?” asks the guy. “According to the province, clothing is not deemed essential.”
BC just hit the lowest number of new cases for the past 47 days (March 19)
I’m feeling a little better today, as our 7 day average is on a good steady downward slope, and BC just announced a million vaccines arriving in May. Vaccination clinics are going full speed. The province is looking into how to really help out the hot spot of Surrey in the lower mainland by working with community groups, new immigrant centers, mosques, churches and temples. (people will tend to listen to respected community members about getting vaccinated)
Things seem to be looking up.
Now we just need to build a wall across the Rocky Mountains…
Don’t hold your breath waiting for the Mexicans to pay for it.
Cases are declining in general across the country. Still high, but headed in the right direction; to what extent that is the result of lockdowns, and to what extent the still-very-limited vaccinations, is hard to say.
It’ll be interesting here in Ontario to see where lockdowns go. The public got very angry over the “papers, please” law, and there is a great deal of continued grousing over rules that don’t make a lot of obvious sense, like closing golf courses and other outdoor sports.
Calgary Herald has an article about why Alberta’s rate of Covid is currently the highest in Canada (higher than every state as well - by around 50%). The writer puts it down to 4 factors:
Experts and commentators say a premature easing of restrictions, an underestimation of variant spread, an inequitable vaccine rollout and non-compliance with public health measures all played a part.
Of course, the comments section is full of folks who don’t understand science, medicine or how vaccines work chiming in with idiotic statements as per usual. It seems the non-compliance is driven by sheer stupidity.
I asked in another thread “What the heck is wrong with Alberta?” and this seems to answer my question. Interestingly, there was no mention of how this is all Trudeau’s fault, as our friend here Sam Stone postulated.
Interesting juxtaposition in the “most read” articles in the Calgary Herald at the moment:
#1 Alberta’s COVID rate is the highest in Canada. How did the third wave get so bad here?
#2 Calgary COVID-19 dissidents vow to resist court order
I’m remaining optimistic. Vaccine campaigns are hitting their stride as supply ramps up. We’re rapidly approaching the vaccination rates where countries ahead of us in the vaccination game have seen marked drops in new infections even with other measures relaxed or abandoned.