I’m really hoping that we’re on track to looking more like the UK curve. They seem to be doing quite well.
Ontario passed the 50% mark for eligible adults today and the vaccination rate is still accelerating. We should hit the 80% mark by around May 31st , at which point the 2nd shots will start in earnest.
If I had to guess, 12-16 year olds will get their shots starting June 20th and then their second shot around August 20th. This is just a guess, but it would position middle/high school to return after Labour Day with a hugely reduced risk profile.
I’m feeling positive enough that we have booked a trip to Florida for Family Day weekend 2022. I’m not convinced a Christmas trip is a wise move.
For comparison, the US is at about 70% of the adult population with at least one shot and will likely end up with under 80% vaccination rate.
Where we seriously lag is in the second shot. We did the rightbthing by diverting our second-shot supply to get more people their first shot, but the result is that as of today 39% of Canadians have had one shot, but only 3.9% have had two.
And the first Pfizer shot is only 25-50% protective against infection by the variants dominating in the west. We are also delaying the second shot by four months, which is way outside the bounds of the clinical data.
I really, really, really wish people would stop saying that we’re delaying the second shot by four months. We’re delaying the second shot by up to four months. But assuming Pfizer and Moderna continue to hit their delivery schedules, which they have been doing (Moderna occasionally a week late admittedly), we’ll have enough doses to provide two shots to 75% of adults some time in July. That’s not counting any additional AZ or J&J supply, as there are no current delivery projections for those. Very few people are likely to approach the full four months.
We started delaying the second shot some time around the beginning of March. Saskatchewan, at least, is starting second shots back up beginning the week after next, which will be about 10 weeks for those who’ve been waiting the longest. Those second shots will just be a trickle for the first bit, basically just keeping pace with the first shots given out in March, but once demand for first shots starts slowing (based on delivery schedules we’ll hit 75% of adults in early June) the pace on second shots will be significantly higher than the pace of first shots leading to that 10 week gap shortening to 8 weeks or less. I guess the delay might be slightly higher if we have an extraordinarily low rate of vaccine reluctance. That would be a problem I’d be happy to live with.
Also, your source for the “only 25-50% protective” data is, if I’m not mistaken, a study that looked at the effectiveness of Pfizer in the three weeks between the first and second shot in…UAE? Somewhere that was following the three week schedule, in any event. And surprise surprise, the first shot does fuck all in the first week. When this is a third of your data set, it skews the numbers. I would be happy to be corrected if you have another data source on that claim that is more applicable to what we’re doing here.
The other thing about the original proposal that the two shots be only a few weeks apart was that testing for the vaccine effectiveness was initially only for short periods, and it wasn’t known how effective it owuld be with a longer gap between the two shots.
That information is now starting to be available, given the large numbers of people around the world who have recieved their vaccinations, and it looks like even the first shot confers considerable benefits:
Thanks for this Northern Piper. Sam really needs to assess his sources a little more critically, as they seem to be giving him poor information.
Please read this from the American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology. The key is data at least 10 or 14 after the first dose. That is when the body has produced enough antibodies.
Dis any of you notice that I was specifically talking about the variants we are finding here, and that I was specifically talking about efficacy against them after only one mRNA shot?
From the New England Journal of Medicine:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2104974
Look at table 1. After one dose, they found only 29.5% effectiveness against infection by the B117 strain, and only 16.9% effectiveness against the B1651 variant. 14 days after the second shot those numbers jumped to 89.5% and 75%, respectively.
The point I was making is that if B117 becomes the dominant strain, the waiting periid between shots still leaves us fairly exposed to infection. The good news is that the rate of hospitalization and death drops substantially if you do get infected, even aftervthe first shot.
Ah yes, Qatar. Got the wrong Gulf state. That study is not trying to determine the difference in effectiveness of the first dose on its own vs the complete regime. It’s trying to determine the difference in effectiveness of the vaccine vs the different variants. That’s why they aren’t throwing out the incidences of infection within 14 days of the first shot. The authors don’t care about that. Using that chart to predict the effectiveness of a single dose of Pfizer/Biontech after 2-3 weeks is worse than useless - it’s actually misleading. Without knowing how long after the first shot the infections in that cohort occurred, the data in that chart doesn’t provide any guidance on how effective a single shot is after 3 weeks, or 6, or 16.
The few studies that have specifically looked for first shot efficacy after two weeks indicates a very significant portion of the protection of the full regime.
Exactly. The researchers were not testing what @Sam_Stone is trying to claim. They lumped all first dosers together and we know you need somewhere around 10 days to see significant amounts of antibodies in people. If 14 days of the second shot is nearly as effective against the B.1.1.7 variant as the wild type, I doubt the effectiveness is as low as 25-50% 14 days after the first shot.
In fact, didn’t both UK and Israel delay their second doses and had data to vindicate their decisions with real world results?
I see Ontario is joining Alberta in pausing the AstraZeneca vaccine “out of an abundance of caution”. I am not at all convinced this is the best move based on 3 deaths from blood clots in two million vaccine doses but it is what it is. Perhaps they have more information than I do. If you received the AZ vaccine as your first dose I wouldn’t worry about it. I think if this delays people getting vaccinated or causes them to reconsider than this exceeds the harms.
I think I’m almost past caring about AstraZeneca. There is zero AZ in the delivery pipeline at the moment and we’ll be nearly done first doses in another month or so.
It’s not just “What it is,” it’s a total failure of communication and has utterly bewildered millions of people.
Scientists should not be muzzled as they were under Harper. They are free to interpret evidence and discuss their opinions. Reasonable people may believe different things and debate them in a reasonable way.
Once in a great while, this actually happens. More commonly, people spout off to a media eager to print any dissenting view, even when ridiculous. Egos, politicians, pundits, those who like the sound of their own voice - get in the way and turn every mild conjecture into a pissing match.
I can take or leave AstraZeneca and have no personal stake. Thousands of women claim vaccines have disturbed their menstruation, which is possible since there has been a lot of stress concerning Covid. An immune mechanism is possible but I don’t know of one. No one wants to minimize harms but a lot of medicine reduces to a numbers game and the risk is extremely small, compared to a considerable benefit. Why upset those who received a safe vaccine? I am not saying I have access to the same information as the decision makers. I am not under those stresses.
In my residency, a grizzled thoracic surgeon teacher once memorably and correctly described his view of medical administrative decisions when the smallest problem arises. “All the mice run into the corner.” Out of an abundance of caution, don’t needlessly worry folks.
I have had my first vaccine, which was Astra Zeneca. Now it looks like the supply is not available in Alberta for a second shot. I guess i get Pfizer or something, and I will be an experiment to see how mixing two different vaccines work.
New Brunswick is using it’s supply of AstraZeneca to complete people who had the first shot and to offer it to people who cannot leave their homes to get to a vaccination clinic for whatever reason. The government is making sure that everyone offered is made aware of all the side effects so they can give informed consent. I think this is a good decision. A lot of teachers were given the AZ shot several weeks ago and have been in limbo ever since. They have the option to take the 2nd dose or wait to see the results of mixing vaccines.
I believe there are some studies underway in the UK looking at mixing vaccines. In theory it should be fine, possibly better than two doses of the same shot due to stimulating the immune system in slightly different fashion. There’s just no clinical data yet to confirm that expectation.
Also, we should eventually see some more AZ deliveries. We ordered tens of millions of doses and have so far only received just over 2 million.
It may offer better protection. They claim a higher risk of side effects. Future studies will further clarify.
I’ve seen this claim made several times, but the examples they give all seem to be mild side effects like fatigue. I’m perfectly willing to endure two days of a low-grade fever and fatigue for better protection. Is there some reason these side effects should be concerning, or is this just the incessant need for journalists to balance a positive with a negative?
They do seem to be modest side effects - when they occur - like chills, fatigue or discomfort and should not stop you from getting vaccinated.
I was surprised to see the Toronto Globe & Mail claim today only about 60% of Canadians want to get vaccinated. About half of Canadians are scared of side effects. The media has helped educate people but a constant focus has also made people anxious and numb. Since anxiety is common and Covid itself can likely cause clotting, I wish the overall communication had been much better, recognizing things change and the task is hard. Creating fear of vaccination by AstraZeneca overfocus has been unhelpful.