Shouldn’t they change the name to the 343? I mean, they did change the number of seats.
338 is currently predicting 9 Liberal seats in Alberta, which would be huge. However there’s quite a bit of variance built into that projection: from a low of 0 to a high of 14.
There’s a little tag under their logo box: “Yes, we know it’s 343 now.” My guess is that they didn’t want to change their branding so close to an election.
Branding. People would be looking for “338canada” and getting frustrated.
No data yet, or possibly until Monday, to see if the French debate moved the needle, but it likely won’t; it doesn’t affect things much outside Quebec, and from the sound of it no one really screwed up or landed a knockout punch.
Many are saying Singh was the more-or-less winner, but the NDP is sitting at single digits in Quebec. If he absolutely nailed it, a best case scenario is that it pulls the NDP up from one seat in Quebec to two. Quebec is a fight between the Grits, Tories and Bloc. He needs to CRUSH it in the English debate to get the NDP back to official party status. Not impossible; he can turn a phrase, there are a lot of natural NDP voters out there who are currently leaning Liberal and could be converted, and a few points in the polls makes a big difference.
Just to be clear: I know that “Tories” = conservative. “Grits” = Liberals?
Correct
It used to be http://www.threehundredeight.com/ I’m not certain nailing your branding to Parliament seat count is a good idea (but perhaps it is, I’ve been a dedicated follower for years now).*
The French language debate was vigorous and lucid. Everyone was alert and a lot of attacks were made. Perhaps I’m wrong, but I see no reason why it would change anyone’s vote thou. It was mostly a wash (thus Carney is walking away with a win). Lets see the English one now.
Edit: 338canada is not by Éric Grenier. My mistake.
You don’t have to recognize it, but Singh has met ALL of those stated reasons. NDP was close to over taking the Liberals before Freeland finally was able to gather enough support to force Trudeau to resign the start of Jan. By then Singh had already vowed to overthrow the government (Trudeau was out being ousted thus no longer could be muscled and threatened anyways) once Parliament returned from Dec’s prorogation (which it never did).
And again, I must repeat, all of which have nothing to do with pension. Singh gained a seat in a 2019 February 25th by-election. This stupid attack is because PP wanted to attack and punish Singh for not overthrowing the government BACK IN JUNE! Singh would be AN COMPLETE IDIOT if he pulled down the government then, or anytime before his policy concessions were not safely granted Royal Ascension.
But that requires some form of principles of which I’m pretty sure Singh lacks given his actual actions. It also requires some foresight given that Trump was elected in 2024 and you’d know the chaos he’d cause. The lack of both is why he is likely a dead duck politically.
Singh is politically dead because of Trump, yes, but also because PP was unable to provide himself as a suitable alternative to Carney. Frankly, PP is loved by his base, but he is HATED by everyone else. PP might get record votes, but also he is also getting record opposition. PP never needed to gather all this fear and hatred. He did it willingly.
NDP voters are supporting Carney not because they hate Singh, another NDP leader will take his place, NDP voters DESPERATELY want to DENY PP/Tories GOVERNANCE.
As it stands in Canada, if all the Left join and support the Liberals, there is just NO WAY any Tory can get to be PM. PP didn’t need to be so unlikable to non-Tories. He’d still win rural Alberta (by 60% instead of 80%) if he pandered to sub-Urban/Urban Ontario more. That’s not what PP did.
I’m in Toronto, which appears to be going overwhelmingly red. We very temporarily have a Tory in our riding after a byelection following Carolyn Bennett’s retirement. The local NDP candidate sent out a mailer with a rant about how strategic voting is “undemocratic”. Hah!
Hey I agree. Our current system is stupid. No current country would volunteerly exchange pr for first-past-the-post. Its too archaic.
However THIS ELECTION is what it is. The voters are not voting in Europe, or Australia, or New Zealand.
I don’t think Carney should even mention electoral reform until after the election, but I do think that, if he wins a strong majority, he should push for reform. He’ll have a solid five-year mandate to deal with Trump, but I think he’s smart enough to realize that the conditions of his (potential, still, but looking likely) win were unique to this particular year. So he shouldn’t be overly attached to the system under which he won this time. I think he’ll realize that, in a more normal year, the Conservatives would still have had a decent shot at winning.
No way. Carney h̶a̶s̶ will soon have a mandate to govern boringly. I assume he’ll do just that. No voting reform (it was never a Liberal idea anyways). My only hope for voter reform is from the provinces. They will take the lead, then the Federal government after many, many years later.
I didn’t say he was likely to do this, I just think he should do it. I can’t imagine us having a better zeitgeist for such reform that what we’ll have in two weeks.
Apathy towards Singh definitely has something to do with it, and Carney does too. but the guy who has the most to do with the current situation in polling isn’t even Canadian.
As a few pundits have pointed out, when times are serious, people want serious leaders. Carney looks and sounds like a serious statesman in a way Poilevre doesn’t.
If Trudeau were still Liberal leader things would be way closer, even though Poilevre would be the same guy. If Kamala Harris had won the US election Poilevre would be way ahead.
That doesn’t make strategic voting “undemocratic.” A person getting a real vote and choosing who to vote for is the most democratic thing I can think of.
You might not like the FPTP system but it’s not undemocratic. People get a vote, and we have the riding system to allocate seats. It isn’t perfect, but here’s the thing; NO system you will ever be able to devise is perfect. It cannot be done. Some may be less imperfect, but if people get an honest vote and it counts, it’s democratic.
This is actually mathematically proven, incidentally. Though of course some systems are better than others.
While a perfect system is impossible, there are lots of systems that get a lot closer to satisfying Arrow’s criteria than FPTP.
Which is entirely irrelevant to an NDP voter deciding to vote strategically for a Liberal, because the voting system in place is FPTP. Incidentally, in Canada voters who choose beween NDP and Liberal candidates based on which is more likely to defeat the Conservative candidate are known as ABC voters. Anyone but Conservative.
That’s us! We’re still deciding: it looks like our riding won’t go Conservative regardless, so we’ll probably vote NDP. But we’re keeping an eye on the polls and will vote Liberal if we must.
My riding has gone Liberal by a huge margin in every election in its existence. But I’m voting Liberal in any case, because I’m voting for the Popular Vote. You just know that if Carney gets a majority government, but nowhere close to a majority of the popular vote, the Conservatives are going to scream about that non-stop the entirety of the next term. I’m hoping to put at least a bit of a damper on that shit.
The only reason the Liberals are where they are now is because of Trump. If all that happened is that Carney replaced Trudeau it would still be likely that the Liberals would still lose and the Conservatives would have a majority. Carney alone is not exciting enough to overcome years of Trudeau incompetence. So, if you are a Liberal supporter you should be thanking Trump. So, don’t confuse your irrational hatred with how everyone else feels.
This is a big reason but not the only one.
Carney showed himself to be politically astute by stealing PPs most popular policies - getting rid of the consumer carbon tax and encouraging building homes through measures like reducing the GST.
Carney has also mostly sounded sensible and serious during the debates, though these rarely change votes (even Biden did not much change the vote).
PP has also been slow to pivot and mentions JT too often. It does not help that he seems to have failed to build support with Ford and Teneycke when he had a big lead or congratulate Ford soon after winning.