I should clarify. The trend line STARTED in Jan 6th, and didn’t stop until sometime around April 1st (one week into the campaign). Take of that what you will.
Terrific post …what a dramatic change and had not realized the coincidal timing of Justin leaving and the dumpf inauguration.
The center left circled the wagons and decided not to split the vote.
Carney’s stature internationly surely helped AND not being a career politician
338 is back up for me.
Ontario looking true to form…
CBC, 338, The Economist, Nanos all basically have similar numbers that give the Grits between 85-89% chance of winning. NDP in single digits, Libs almost double BQ support in Québec.
We will see.
Last poll from Abacus is typically detailed. Interesting points:
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Grits’ message appears to be more focused than the Tories’ message(s) and helping to firm up support;
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Carney has higher likeability factor than Poilievre;
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in addition to the regional split, there is a gender split, with men more likely to favour the Tories, women more likely to favour the Grits;
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Young voters more likely to be concerned about pocketbook issues, so favour the Tories;
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Older voters more likely to be concerned about Trump, so favour the Grits;
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Education is an indicator; high school grads more likely to vote Tory, university grads more likely to vote Grit;
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NDP is perceived as strongest on health care, which is why they’ve been campaigning on that, but not really helping them;
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BQ has clawed back up a bit, but Grits out-polling them generally; vote distribution in Quebec will likely be very important for final outcome of Quebec seats;
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Grits have better “voter efficiency”, or more generally allocated, so Tories’ rank in voter percentage not as significant, because of high percentage in Alberta and Sask;
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Turnout may be a factor that has differing impacts regionally; high turnout in Atlantic and Ontario more likely to favour the Grits, in Manitoba and BC, more likely to favour the Tories;
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Trump is despised.
https://abacusdata.ca/2025-federal-election-final-poll-of-campaign/
Election in a nutshell
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/is-the-race-narrowing-in-poilievre-s-own-riding-here-s-what-residents-think-1.7519864
and I do hope PP loses his seat. Could do without him in parliament for a good long while. 
I’ve been needling the right wing echo chamber in my Canadian mcycle forum by posting up the seat count projects and and one guy who I had on ignore anyway blew up and in short said
“stay out, you left the country, none of your business”
I pointedly reminded him that I’m a Canadian citizen regardless of where I currently live, have dottor in Canada so yes I have a vested interest and my vote is just as valid as his.
I was pissed …and it reinforced why I had him on ignore.
338 currently showing BC with a two-seat difference. Definitely dropping by the local church (where voting is) tomorrow.
On 338, Saskatchewan is showing one “safe” Liberal seat (the northern riding), one “toss-up” (Conservative/Liberal -Regina Wascana, Goodale’s old seat) and the rest are Conservative “Likely” or “safe”.
The northern riding, Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River) is an interesting fight. It covers the northern half of the province, and was held by Gary Vidal of the Conservatives since 2019. He’s not running again, apparently because of internal Conservative Party politics caused by the redistribution.
The two leading candidates are both Indigenous, as is most of the population of the riding: Buckley Belanger for the Liberals and Jim Lemaigre for the Conservatives. Both were involved in provincial politics.
Belanger was elected provincially for the Liberals in 1995, then crossed to the NDP in 1998 and was re-elected in every provincial election after that. He resigned from the Assembly to run for election as a Liberal in the federal election in 2021, but lost to Vidal. His provincial seat was Athabaska, which is the western portion of the federal Churchill riding.
Lemaigre was elected to the Assembly in 2022 for the Sask Party, in the by-election for Athabaska after Belanger resigned. He was the only right-of-centre canadidate to win that provincial riding - ever. He ran again in the 2024 provincial election but was defeated by the NDP candidate.
Now the two former MLAs for Athabaska (provincial) are fighting for the Churchill riding (federal).
Worse than China? Good Lord.
As an American who loves Canada and wants our two countries to be best friends and firm allies, I’m mortified. As a Democrat who loathes Trump and resents his reckless foreign policy, I’m not at all surprised.
China is a rival, and cares not one whit for the well-being of any other country, but they’re smart enough to know that they benefit a lot more from peace than they do from war (and other nations also benefit from that peace, but again, they care not one whit about that).
The US, under its current leadership, is stupid enough to think that war will benefit us.
Yeah, sadly, not surprising at all.
Yep. In three months, Trump has destroyed a friendship that has developed over a century and a half (starting after your Civil War).
The man has talents. Bad ones.
I didn’t see anywhere in the Abacus poll where they asked people’s views on whether water is wet.
And will the Sun rise in the east tomorrow? People are wondering.
Questions about the Pope being Catholic were retracted at the last minute.
But what about the bears?
The bears are Presbyterian.
Todays pressing issue is whether, 7mil+ having voted in early poles, ( a record for certain!), will mean;
-polling station will be not crowded and it’s all smooth sailing!
Or,
-line ups will persist throughout the day and well into the evening.
Or, possibly, even;
Polling stations remain open past time as lineups persist even at closing time. The outcome then also delayed!
We could be up late into the night awaiting an outcome I think.
I don’t think we will see long lineups. There will be lineups, but as each poll only serves about 600 voters (don’t ask me where I heard that, but it sounds reasonable), and some of those voted early, and we (unlike Americans) have no downballot races so we only have to vote for one candidate, I imagine things will go smoothly and quickly.
Yeah, that was me.
But I’ll add a caveat. This is based on my experience roughly counting electors for the voter roll for my box in the Carleton riding last election. Not certain how generalizable it’ll be to other ridings in other elections.