You may be right:
CBC at least seems to be indicating only Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge is still uncalled (currently 47.4 % con and incumbent, 45.2 lib, ~7.5 all the rest): Canada federal election 2025 live results | CBC News
ETA: And they just called it.
I’m okay wth a Liberal minority government. In practice it won’t be limiting. In theory it may reduce scandal and smugness (like it did so very well previously). I also hope Carney continues to borrow (and perhaps credit) good Conservative ideas including getting tougher on fraud and intelligently decreasing the size of government. It will be interesting to see if Cabinet stays “small” given how important some deem regional and gender parity to be.
I thought the Cons would do a bit better than predicted, and am reasonably happy with the result.
So am I but I don’t see where they called it. There were 12 outstanding close races a few hours ago. Libs only needed 4
Formal coalitions such as are common in some European countries are virtually unknown in Canada, although minority governments often strike deals with smaller parties in order to get their support, whether or not it’s formalized as a confidence and supply agreement (usually it’s just an informal understanding). It often results in better governance, especially when Conservatives have to appease the NDP. In this case I wish that Carney had an unstoppable majority, but in general a minority government is not necessarily a bad thing.
The “supply” part of the name in “confidence and supply” is that any vote on a budget is automatically a confidence vote. A minority government losing a budget vote means a new election.
In the present situation, Mark Carney’s Liberals are so close to a majority that they’re bound to get some support from other parties to avoid non-confidence, and from the looks of things, a lot of it will come from the Bloc. Quebeckers hate Trump more than any other group. They’ve long struggled as a linguistic minority on this continent, and are well aware that Trump has no respect whatsoever for any minority that is not exactly like himself.
I find it rather ironic that there were widespread predictions that the last US federal election might not be settled for weeks, and it was all over the same night, and that it’s the Canadian election results that are dragging on! The winner is clear, and was accurately predicted by the polls, but the minority/majority issue is still not resolved, AFAIK.
I thought the results were now clear. There are mandatory recounts in some ridings, but one would hope that an accurate count in the first place means these will not vary.
I just checked and the CBC is projecting a minority Liberal government (but still a “projection” as of 8 minutes ago) the results apparently having stabilized at 169 seats for the Liberals, just three short of a majority.
The CBC sez that Carney and Trump spoke this morning, but it doesn’t describe the circumstances. It would be nice to think – but extremely hard to believe – that the Orange Felon called Carney to congratulate him. But at any rate, by all accounts I think that Carney has already established a good relationship with him, something that Trudeau seemed incapable of doing.
Don’t think the polls got the strength of the Cons correct.
Called now tho I’m still surprised
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-minority-vs-minority-count-1.7521714
It’s true that the polls didn’t predict that the two major parties would pick up virtually all of the seats between them, especially at the expense of the NDP. What I meant was that they did predict a Liberal victory.
As a side note, I think what hit the NDP really hard this time and led to the demise of Singh as party leader is that all the good things that the NDP stands for were just not considered relevant in this election. It would have been like voting for the party of sweetness and kindness in a time of war. I admire what the NDP stands for, but in this election I had no hesitation in voting for the Liberals under Mark Carney. Why anyone voted for Poilievre I have no idea.
Indeed with NDP collapse.
The polls were calling for majority and missed. That’s telling.
I just learned the reason for the 90 plus candidate names on the ballot for the Carleton riding, there’s an organization named the Longest Ballot Committee which advocates for electoral reform and one of their activities includes gathering enough signatures in specific ridings to qualify as many candidates as possible - Longest Ballot Committee - Wikipedia
I’m not sure how effective this practice is, I only heard about it because one of the organizers, also a candidate on the ballot, was interviewed on the CBC “As It Happens” radio program. I did a quick estimate, it looks like the total of all of the independent candidate votes is around 750, well below the 4315 vote lead that Bruce Fanjoy (Lib) has over PP.
It’s not true at all though? The Liberals drawing support from the smaller parties was one of the major findings of the polls. CBC poll tracker predicted 5 NDP seats, 23 BQ, 1 green; 338 predicted 9 NDP seats, 23 BQ, 1 green; actual results were 7 NDP seats, 22 BQ, 1 green. Pretty damn close.
Telling of what? Again, both 338 and CBC gave a 20% chance of a Liberal minority. They thought a majority was more likely, but this was well within the expected outcome. Looking at the predictions, the difference seems to be a 3% error in the popular vote in Ontario (within the margin of error for most polls), that swung about 20 more seats than expected for the Conservatives.
At the federal level, we’ve only had one coalition government since 1867. It was a wartime coalition in WWI in support of using coalition to keep the Canadian army in France going.
Damn near tore the country apart on linguistic lines.
An experiment that’s never been repeated.
After many, many years I helped dislodge PP from my riding. I’m totally ecstatic. He stuffed enough toadies as candidates as to completely change the nature of the CPC to his vision… but nonetheless he must now go pitch his tent somewhere else. Go, you jerk.
ETA: Also Ontario came up short for the Liberals. Luckily for Carney Quebec came out in full force with seats. Plus former NDP voters made up the difference in Ontario.
Congratulations!
338’s final poll aggregation was
Liberal 43% +/-4
Conservative 39% +/-4
NDP 8% +/-2
BQ 6% +/-1
Actual vote
Liberal 43.7%
Conservative 41.3%
NDP 6.3%
BQ 6.3%
That’s not perfect, but it’s easily within margin of error.
Not a critique of you, but this is slightly inaccurate. The media always gets it wrong, when they say a majority government needs 50% of the seats + 1.
It’s actually 50% of the seats +2, because of the Speaker.
The Speaker does not vote, so losing a member to the Speaker’s chair reduces your party strength by one seat.
If the Liberals had elected 172, and then elected a Liberal as Speaker, they would be down to 171 votes, an exact tie with the total opposition parties. (343 - 1 = 342. 342/2 = 171).
Now, it might be that a government with 172 seats could strike a deal to elect an Opposition member as Speaker, perhaps from one of the smaller parties, but that’s iffy.
I’m wondering how much PPs support of the truckers rally and rogue Saskatchewan conservative MPs doing the Trump “thumbs up” for pictures with the truckers in Ottawa at the time, factored in to PPs ouster.
It wasn’t a big factor for ME simply because I already hated him. (up-thread in March)
For his possible supporters? yeah, if you had any business downtown in the winter, you were always fucked for time. Can’t imagine what it was like to hear their noise at all hours thou. Plague bearing idiots, all of them.