I know he’ll win the seat, but is anybody else joining me in the delightful fantasy that he loses it?
The Road to 169!
A very strategic move.
The riding (Battle River-Crowfoot) is in Alberta. And right now, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is rumbling about holding a referendum on whether Alberta should separate from Canada. Or something. That would get even less traction, if the leader of Canada’s Opposition is seated in Alberta.
I say “or something” because it’s not clear what Smith is angling for. It doesn’t seem to be full separation. As I understand it, what Smith wants is more like what Quebec wanted in 1980: certain federal powers under Constitution s. 91 devolved to the province, but only after negotiations. Nevertheless, some Albertans (and I’m being generous when I say “some”; it is more like “a few”) think Smith means “Alberta will be an independent country or in a best case scenario, an American state.”
At any rate, Smith’s goal is going to be a lot harder to achieve when an important figure in Canada’s Parliament holds an Alberta seat. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear that she has Poilievre’s photo on a dartboard right now.
All the deep inter-party political maneuvering is over for now. An election was just held. Everyone is adjusting to the new realities of the new parliament, but nonetheless the results have been accepted by all the party leaders and all of them clearly said its time to move forward, behind Carney as PM.
The parties are in no mood for anything. The NDP is broken and leaderless. The Bloc is weaken and Blanchet declared that Carney will get his party’s support for 12-18 months on confidence votes. The CPC is gobsmacked, with PP silent and behind the scenes politicking to tamp down any surprise insurrections.
For about a year Carney has a blank check to do whatever he wants. He campaigned on getting work done protecting Canada’s economic safety without distractions, he got it. Canadians want to see Carney the technocrat banker not Carney the shrewd politician. He knows this, and feels quite safe in his position now (having upset our political landscape and beat all comers).
ETA: There is talk of stealing 4 MP’s from the other parties (the NDP MP’s have mostly won on their own names and might welcome a career boost, also Tory MP’s might be fed up with the behaviour of PP)… but at this time such political dealing/wheeling is not necessary; just a distraction. However should the House turn hostile before the Grits are ready, the Liberals would peruse these flips hard.
Having said this. I’m not quite certain what’s PP’s plan now. He has been mostly silent, leaving his MP’s to talk to the press in his stead. (That Jivani eh? PP has put the word out to focus blame on Ford and Teneycke to keep the heat off his own choices.)
We’ll see if he can keep the CPC jackals back and scared. Whether he does or not, I doubt PP will change. He is what he is.
Quite often, the other parties will decline to run a candidate. I’m hoping for a Bruce Fanjoy type to rise up, and challenge him as an independent.
Do Canadian voters ever punish “carpetbaggers” like American voters sometimes do? And even if Canadian voters sometimes do, does a party leader generally get a pass?
It’s usually not much of an issue. Party leaders in PP’s position are usually the only ones who do stuff like this.
Candidates are mostly chosen by the party’s riding association unless they are of particular fame/usefulness as decided by the party leader. The party leader can both reject choosen candidates and parachute their own friends in if they fancy it. There are reasons why they should (at least) follow local association’s procedures and just lend their favour to someone instead, but hey… there’s perks being the leader.
They can veto or overrule on good grounds or simple arbitrary whim. Voters mostly vote on choices made at the party (or even party leader) level, not on local name recognition anyways. Mostly, not always.
Reminds me of a child in Nazi Germany being forced to have a blood transfusion that will kill to save a German officer’s life.
Would be so cool to see him lose twice. I wonder if then he would get the message.
In Battle River-Crowfoot, not going to happen. The CPC got 82% of the vote there.
As for Alberta separation, I think there would be about 30% support, mostly rural. Maybe as much as 50% depending on how the question was worded. A lot of Yes voters would be in “troll mode” just trying to raise crap, and extort and posture like Quebec has been doing for decades.
What happens if no one volunteers? Or if the selected sacrificial candidate says “fuck off, I won fair and square”? Can the party compel compliance in some way or is this purely a matter of negotiation?
Ultimately, the MP can stay if they want to, the party by itself can’t change that.
What they can do is make their life uncomfortable. Deny them any of the good jobs in Parliament, like sitting on committees, and maybe even tossing them out of the party, so they sit as an independent, or try to join another party.
But as a practical matter, there’s always someone willing to step up.
If a sitting MP (rules are different for a mere candidate) doesn’t step aside, they can be expelled from the party caucus (by secret ballot). If this happens then they’ll need to continue the session as an independent MP.
Definition of “caucus”
49.1 In this Division, “caucus” means a group composed solely of members of the House of Commons who are members of the same recognized party.
Marginal note:Expulsion of caucus member
49.2 A member of a caucus may only be expelled from it if
- (a) the caucus chair has received a written notice signed by at least 20% of the members of the caucus requesting that the member’s membership be reviewed; and
- (b) the expulsion of the member is approved by secret ballot by a majority of all caucus members.
An MP can’t be compelled by anyone to stand down, but the MP elected in that riding on Monday has announced he will give up his seat for Poilievre to stand as a candidate.
Such individuals are usually referred to as “party stalwarts”.
This has happened before in our history. A Nova Scotia MP stood down for Brian Mulroney to get into Parliament in 1983. An MP in Prince Albert, Saskatchewan, stood down in 1926 to allow Prime Minister Mackenzie King to get back into Parliament. John A MacDonald from Ontario represented Victoria BC for a term.
Funny enough that arse from the Rebel (Ezra Levant), refused to step aside after pursuing and winning the party’s nomination for Preston Manning’s old riding of Calgary Southwest (a very safe seat). Of course, the new party leader muscled him out and Ezra resigned in a hissy fit.
Stephen Harper won that by-election and eventually became Prime Minister.
Not only that, but Levant’s 24 year old campaign communication director left Alberta to run in the next election and won in the Carleton riding in Ottawa (yes, he was PP himself).
Grits back up to 169 seats: Milton East - Halton Hills has flipped to them, but there will be an automatic recount.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/election-validation-riding-flip-liberal-conservative-1.7525641
40 posts were split to a new topic: Alberta, Natural Resources, and the Rest of Canada
What is the expected quid pro quo for Conservative Party stalwart Damien Kurek?