That sound more like it might be a push-poll rather than an actual poll. They’re not really polls at all, but rather a dishonest (IMHO) campaign tactic.
To my shame I’ve done a few in my youth for money when I was doing telemarketing for a political marketing firm. Worst job ever.
I like Trudeau. Still do with some significant reservations. Could do without an election at this time. Am still undecided after the Libs published their platform. All parties have a few good ideas, but also too many expensive things that should not be priorities now.
I am thinking that this US abortion decision will play into Trudeau’s hands, even though it shouldn’t make much difference here.
It’d be very strange if it did make a difference in the Canadian election. The only possible conclusion would be that culturally, Canada is part of the US.
Not at all. Legally, it makes no difference in Canada. I am not assured it will make that much difference in the US - outside of Texas -though admit it may embolden Conservative States for a while and this is not remotely an area I follow closely.
But politically, the Liberals have always tried to portray the similar Conservatives as bogeymen with a secret agenda and now they will point south and say the same. Culturally, there are some similarities - nothing more.
Of course it will. The main Liberal attack on the Conservatives is that religious conservatives are in the driver’s seat and so will force O’Toole to introduce legislation on abortion. Since it happened in GOP controlled Texas (and Mississippi) the thinking is that the Conservatives will ape the GOP approach.
I’d doubt it since any move like that would immediately bleed off center right support the Conservatives want to pull from the Liberals.
Though I bet if you asked Canadians about the legal framework around abortion most wouldn’t actually know.
Bill C-16 is an entirely useless piece of legislation. The bill amends the Canada Election Act to set “fixed” dates for federal elections, but the first paragraph acknowledges that the rest of it has no legal effect*, recognizing that, under the Constitution, it is legally the GG’s prerogative to call elections (by convention normally at the PM’s request), and the law cannot constrain this power. In effect, the “fixed” date is merely a suggestion with no force in law.
Powers of Governor General preserved
56.1 (1) Nothing in this section affects the powers of the Governor General, including the power to dissolve Parliament at the Governor General’s discretion.
Any one planning on watching either debate is way more motivated than I am.
Any one who says the debate really affected their vote? Normally I would be dismissive, but less so this year. The parties are more similar, with more giveaways and less costing.
As I’ve said, if it does make a difference, it shows that as far as culture – or at least “media environment” – is concerned, Canada might as well be said to be part of the US. It’s not like political news from any other country could affect a Canadian election.
Which is ridiculous. How on earth could you ever hope to keep out the culture ebbs and flows of 30 million people from influencing a smaller political unit of 8 million people that share borders and cultural history.
Wait, I meant to make this about the US and Canada but the point stands.
You know, that was far too snarky - I apologize for my tone.
FWIW, I cannot see how that Texas law can have any effect on a Canadian election.
I stick to my feeling of being unable to support a party that, in its last government, put a creationist in charge of science policy.
I wonder if the Texas example will inspire the like-minded in the Conservative party to press for similar changes and how successful that might be. If they are loud enough, even if not successful, will it move the “Overton window”?
I think Trudeau’s biggest problem is Canadians don’t really like rapid elections that much. It feels like a power grab, and that rankles Canadians. Plus, I have to hand it to O’Toole, he’s done a good job of keeping the election away from the issues with which they normally struggle, e.g., climate change, social conservatism, the crazies (anti-vaxx, etc.) in the party, etc. However, overall, it was Trudeau’s job to make a convincing reason why we needed an election and he’s failed spectacularly at this. I think with the last election call there was a reasonable reason. To ask for a mandate on how to handle COVID. Asking for a new mandate just seems odd right now. I saw a Beaverton article that said something to the effect “Trudeau announces platform of things he could have already done.” And it really does feel that way.
The good news, if O’Toole wins it does not seem like it will be a majority. And just like Canada can survive Trudeau mediocrity (despite the Conservative’s mantra of “Trudeau is destroying the country” 
), Canada can survive an O’Toole government.
If it meant that the Liberals would dump Trudeau, I almost kind of like him to win. Trudeau has been ok, but I really feel like we can do better. Maybe I’m just getting old and cranky.
At an anti-vax, anti-mask, anti-lockdown rally in Vancouver, there were lots of “Jail Trudeau!” No Communism!” etc. signs alongside the no vax stuff. The rally was organized by something called Canadian Frontline Nurses, two of whom allegedly attended the Capitol demo/riot of 6 January. I suspect some of that crowd will vote Conservative, because who else would they vote for if they are not ready or able to vote for a fringe candidate? Like abortion, whatever the Tory leaders think, they will certainly draw uncritically on that support.
Err, what? The last election was Oct '19, a couple months before SARS-CoV-2 was discovered.
Shows you how much I follow politics. I could have sworn it was after COVID.
If you took “Canada might as well be said to be part of the US” as a slight, or an insult, that wasn’t my intention and I’m sorry. It was intended more as a reflection on how the world in general, but Canada in particular, tends to view the world filtered through American culture. The example that comes to my mind right now is how criminal defendants in all countries “plead the fifth” (using those very words) to avoid self-incriminating, but there are many more examples. I mean, I’m not any exception to this: probably the majority of my media consumption is American as well. But it’s also clear that Texas restricting access to abortion has no more effect on Canada than, say, Poland restricting access to abortion, so it would be an interesting effect if it somehow did cause voters to shift from the Conservatives to the Liberals. It is true that, despite Erin O’Toole being completely bland and inoffensive, many voters instinctually distrust the Conservative party and see it as a Trojan horse for social/religious conservative ideas. I see it all the time on the Quebec subreddit, for example, and it kind of baffles me. But it’s true that it exists and the specter of “abortion restrictions” is apparently a large part of it.
I believe the Liberals are using the wrong messaging.
O’Toole has done a decent job making reasonable statements about health care or social rights. The Liberals have responded with fear and hyperbole - O’Toole wants private health care!!! It is ridiculous but not quite as much as that immature Conservative ad.
A better message for the Liberals might be: O’Toole cannot control the extremists in his own party. Given global events, this might seem a more critical concern. “In 2016, O’Toole was much more Conservative than when he ran in 2020. Does he really mean it? Can he control the people in his party who…”
(Some of the Conservative policies seem better than the alternatives; his ideas about labour representation are a reasonable starting point, his fossil fuel ideas fairly serious. I find it a mixed bag, but would say the same for other platforms too.)
Many years ago, a friend of mine observed that, what the US is doing now, Canada will be doing in ten years. Time has largely proven that to be correct.
The various flavours of conservatives in Canada seem hell-bent on aping the GOP strategies of appealing to stupidity and ignorance, simply declaring Trudeau to be a “disaster” without apparently feeling any need to actually point out what he’s done to be considered a disaster. I see no reason to suppose they won’t continue down this path, and the Texas abortion issue is hugely popular among the social conservatives. It might not happen over night, but if the new Texas law stands, it seems like a safe bet that, in a few years, some conservatives in Canada will start eyeing the possibility of moving in the same direction.
And I say this as someone who used to vote conservative, and was going to vote conservative again in the last Ontario election until the party foisted Doug Ford on us. I’ve spent the last decade and a half watching the various evolutions of the conservative party embracing all the elements I was never really in favour of, while distancing themselves from the parts that I supported.
Considering the unavoidable socio-political cultural bleed constantly seeping osmotically northward from the US to our wonderful, bucolic stetches, you darn bet your Lillian Vander Zalm headbands that the conservative movement will incrementally radicalize in moving in that direction; accordingly, the CCP will be requiring a close eye kept on them.