Apparently, or so I have I heard, blackjack can actually be beaten quite easily so that the player can gain around about a 1% edge over the house. Is this true? And is it really that easy to do?
The big advantage the house has over the player is that,
as soon as you bust (go over 21) you lose.
That is, most casinos call a ‘push’ a tie; the player gets
his/her chips back, and nobody wins.
But in the case of busting, you never find out if the house
would have busted too, because the game’s over for you
right then, and you lose.
Put another way, there are 4 scenarios:
- Neither player nor dealer busts.
- Only the player busts.
- Only the house busts.
- Both dealer and house bust.
The house combines 2 and 4 into ‘player busts’ and you lose.
That’s a big advantage.
To your question directly:
If a player counts cards, which is cheating, they can
sometimes know that odds are changing toward the end of
the run of the 8 decks that have been shuffled together.
It’s not easy, no.
I don’t know how often the player gains an advantage,
either.
Thanks for your reply, bup.
But I have to ask, you said card counting is cheating. Do you mean morally or legally? And what exactly is the process involved in card counting?
Of course. That’s why most casinos in Las Vegas can’t afford to expand or redecorate, and usually go bankrupt and shut down within months.
Don’t they?
It depends on the blackjack setup.
It is possible to gain an advantage over the house in blackjack because, unlike some other games of chance, previous events in blackjack can affect future outcomes. By noting what cards have already been played (card counting), you can gain an edge when playing perfect strategy. When the remaining deck is favorable (lots of 10s, face cards, and aces left; sometimes nines as well, depending on the strategy), you bet more, on the principle that you’re more likely to be dealt a winning hand. When the remaining deck is unfavorable, you bet less to minimize your losses. Card counting strategies are obviously somewhat more involved that this and there are many variations, but this is the basic idea.
This potential advantage is negated if the dealer uses a high-deck count shoe or if the dealer reshuffles often. Also, it’s usually fairly easy to spot a card counter (unless the card counter is skilled enough to mask the fact that he/she is counting). While card counting is not against the rules in any way, the casino does reserve the right not to provide you with service, and so has the right to kick you out of the casino for counting if they so choose.
Pray tell how do you spot a card counter?
They watch your betting strategy. If, all of a sudden, your bet goes from $10 to $100, and back down to $10 a bit later, the dealer will know something is up. The pit boss (I think) will then keep an eye on you and see if you’re following a pattern. Most people just bet the same every hand, or let winnings ride. The non-counter doesn’t usually have big swings in the amount they bet.
Watch his lips move when he looks at his hand…
Seriously, there are many card counting strategies which involve more or less work. The very basic is just counting the tens (K,Q,J,10) that have been played so you know how many remain to be dealt. If the deck is heavy or light on tens, this will affect basic strategy choices in some cases. Counting just tens is fairly easy for the counter and very difficult to spot. More involved counting schemes count more groups, breaking the cards in to low, mid, high or somesuch. This takes more concentration.
Whatever the scheme, the counter must tally all the cards he’s interested in at the end of play. That means he pays a great deal of attention to not only the dealer’s cards, but every other player’s hands. If you’re at a table with four or five other players and no one busts so everyone’s hand gets flipped in rapid succession, you have to count very fast. This is where it’s easy to spot.
You count cards right along with the counter.
In order to succeed at card counting in blackjack, you must vary the size of your bets. So when you notice someone varying the size of their bets over time, you start counting cards yourself. If you find that the player is betting big when the deck is favorable and small when the deck is unfavorable, this will clue you in that the player is a potential blackjack card counter.
I’ve read a few books on the subject, and there are charts in these books of how to play every single possible combination, and there are only a few dozen. With some practice at home you could probably memorize it in a few days. The books say you have a little over 1% advantage if you use these charts and count and bet accordingly depending on how many 10 value cards are left (I forget whether it is more or less left). It is difficult to count when multiple decks are used as most casinos do.
I’ve set my computer to count the cards perfectly and play the charts perfectly and to play a million hands. All six players lost all their computer money long before a million hands.
I have a friend who makes his living playing blackjack. There are other things you can do too. In order for the deck to be completely random, it must be shuffled seven times. No customers would wait for this with a six deck shoe, so the cards are not random. If you have enough experience playing and play at a table with no bad players, you can gain quite a significant advantage.
If you start winning using these methods (losers get to stay!) you will get thrown out of the casinos and included on a list that goes around with photos and thrown out of all casinos that subscribe. (This is an anti-competitive practice, but the casinos do it anyway.)
Card counting is not illegal nor is it really cheating (unless you use mechanical aids such as a computer to help you along). You’re merely using your head to improve your own odds.
That said a casino will throw you out if they suspect you are counting cards (and are being successful at it). They are a private business and can refuse service if they wish and in this case they would definitely wish it. If the movie Rain Man is any guide they’ll likely let you take what you’ve won so far but beyond that you would be wise to move along when asked.
As a defense against card counters casinos use several deck shoes and will usually replace the shoe before it gets too close to the end (which is when a good card counter can have the best chance of knowing what cards are left). Unless you are a savant like Rain Man or have a computer at your disposal effectively counting those shoes is going to be very difficult. Computers in a casino are definite no-no’s and will get you arrested for cheating.
I’ve heard this as well, in some book on cards; Scarne on Cards, maybe? I read it a long time ago. The idea was that by doing the optimal things, such as doubling down and splitting cards correctly, the player could extract a very small percentage ( 1~1.5% IIRC). It did not involve counting cards, just playing extremely well.
I remember there was a long, in depth statistical analysis of the game, but I didn’t work all the way through it, so can’t speak to its accuracy.
If everyone overnight started to count cards and beat the house at blackjack, the casino’s would simply stop offering blackjack. Since you can still play blackjack, I am sure the house still has the edge.
The occasional counter is probably good for the casino, since having winners makes the other poor suckers think that they have a chance.
One thing that I have noticed casinos using more and more is the continous shuffle shoe, where after every hand, the used cards go back into the mechanical shoe that is constantly shuffling the cards. The advantages to the casino for this is that it makes card counting impossible (well almost,) and play does not pause while the dealer reshuffles the deck.
I did see on TLC that their was one auto-shuffler (not a continuous shuffler) that was beaten in Vegas for a while because it was not completely randomizing the cards. This is why I said card counting may be possible with the continuous shuffle, but you would have to collect a lot of stats to identify any patterns coming out of the shoe.
No, if a player plays blackjack using only optimal strategy, the dealer will have roughly a 0.4% advantage over the player, depending upon the setup, of course; the 0.4% advantage is for a 6-deck shoe blackjack game with typical table rules, with fewer decks yielding a smaller house advantage. As bup stated, the primary advantage that the dealer has over the player is that the player plays first. If the player busts, the dealer always wins, regardless of whether or not the dealer busts as well.
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- In the US, how long you can count at blackjack is not only a matter of how well you can count, but how long they feel like letting you win. Casinos here can throw you out for any reason they want, including winning too often -they watch the percentage of hands you win/play as well as your running balance, and make the decision based on their own standards. They do not have to prove you cheated or counted anything. - MC
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Even if the player did manage to get a small percentage advantage, the house would still make money because it has a (in practical terms) unlimited bankroll. Even if a player has a considerable advantage, there will still be long runs of the house winning (and then long runs of the player winning). Eventually what will happen is that the player, even if the odds are with him, will probably hit a long streak of “bad luck.” Eventually, he’ll lose his stake and have to leave. If he had more money, he could keep playing and over an infinite number of passes he’d win it back plus much more, but you can’t play the odds if you don’t even have one chip to bet with. This is called, at least by Michael Crichton in “The Lost World,” Gambler’s Ruin. The same process affects the house, but since its stake is orders of magnitude above your own, it will always have one more chip to play with. You won’t.
–Cliffy
Caldazar, thanks. That actually refreshed my memory. You are, of course, correct - optimal strategy (which is amazingly hard to do over the long run) gets you close; the slight edge does require counting. Hey, its been 12 years since I read the book, standing in a used bookstore.
Sorry about that.
I would point out that this isn’t entirely true - with enough of an advantage, there is a reasonable chance that you will come out ahead, forever.
This link is to a Discover magazine that explains how it is possible to consistantly win at blakcjack and, of all things, video poker.
Among the things you need to do:
Be able to count cards really well.
Have bankroll of 1000x the table’s minimum bet.
Have an awful lot of free time.
All this for a theoretical maximum return of ~1.5% more than you bet (actually, since no one can play perfectly, the actual return is less than 1%).
Seems you’d do better keeping your cash in a passbook
savings account.
(OK, on preview that link takes you to their search engine. Just type in “blackjack” and it should be the only article found)