Fixed.
Thanks!
And I can’t wait to see polling results from after Joe’s announcement.
(After the news has settled in, I mean.)
I see three Trump-Harris polls, at RealClearPolitics, with information collected after Joe dropped out.
In theory, we can compare to the final Trump-Biden poll, for the same polling organization, from earlier this month, to see how much Kamala has helped the Democratic ticket.
Problem is, depending on the date of the earlier survey, the result is mixed up with the bump Trump got from being shot. Also mixed in is any bump Trump got from the GOP convention. Also, many of those polled did not consider Harris the presumptive nominee. When they do, I think she might get a bump from being perceived as a more powerful person.
So it is just too early to say what bump the Democrats got from Joe dropping out.
Absolutely. It is still way to early. But at least these polls were conducted after the bombshell.
Looking a bit more, I wonder if it will ever be possible to, using polling data, reliably disaggregate Trump’s shooting bounce, Trump’s convention bounce, and Harris’s locking up the Democratic nomination bounce. There may be dueling poly sci journal articles on this decades from now.
In 2020, there was no real convention bounce. But I’m thinking that the GOP could have gotten a bounce from Vance because of him being young and a possible (if you are paying only the slightest attention) check on Trump’s extremism. And Rasmussen, which I do not dismiss for the Nate Silver reasons, says:
If the above is true, it is going to look from polling that Harris becoming the presumptive nominee failed to instantly help her party, when actually she did.
As with that Reuters poll (where Harris went from 2 ahead without RFK jr to 4 with) this is potentially huge. I thought this might happen, as the GOP has done so much to court the bonkers anti vac demographic post covid. It seems RFK is taking votes away from Trump not Harris(the opposite of what all the polls said with Biden) . That is hilarious given how much they clearly tried to convince him to run to split the DNC vote
Of course it only matters at all if its close, and I’m daring to think it might not actually be very close and Harris might run away with it. If only for my blood pressure I really hope thats the case (though its more hope than expectation)
I have said already and will say it again here - the polls will take 1-2 weeks to really tell what changes this will bring. If any.
There is a great deal of positive energy among black voters, women and young voters being mentioned by the media because of this change. I am hopeful this will end up being accurate.
The utter panic being exhibited by the GOP will help I suspect.
Your link seems to indicate these polls were released today 7/23. I’m missing where it says they were conducted since Sunday. Please help me see what I am missing.
Reread my post and it say my pair of polls are fresh.
The one in the OP is from Sunday.
Sorry but when I follow THIS link it goes to an RCP page that shows the polls being dated 7/23. I see nothing showing a poll conducted on Sunday. And if it is there I’m not clear what that would show.
ETA I agree it is way too early to rely on any polls about the changes to the race.
No idea what you’re asking.
I posted 2 polls I think in post 19. Those are fresh.
The Sunday poll is in the OP.
The RCP link is just a link to what @PhillyGuy was posting about.
The way it’s displayed makes it look like you linked to it. Whatever.
I’m still not putting much stock in any polls for the next week at the least.
And yes, I looked at your post 19 and that Reuters/Ipsos poll makes more sense to me. Though I still think it’s a bit early since its was conducted yesterday and today.
Isn’t Marist considered a bit biased toward the GOP?
Of course it is too soon for the polls to mean much. I think almost everyone has said that in this thread.
No idea on Marists leanings.
I do not think one poll normally means much, but this one — survey on Monday and Truesday — at least gives some ideas for how to think about the polls to come, when there are enough to average:
Republicans reading the above may say “Harris improves” is a misleading headline, because Harris is three points behind Trump. But that’s in a polling panel that happens, maybe by pure chance, to skew GOP with respect to polling averages.
So — big takeaway — comparing June to present, we see, in the same panel (so no real sample size issue) the taking the Trump being shot bounce, and Trump convention bounce, and Biden dropping out bounce, it all adds up to +3 for the Democratic ticket. This seems very hopeful for the Democrats.
What about the fact that Harris is still behind by 3 points, even before you take into account the GOP electoral college advantage, and the historical shy Trumper situation? Well, Biden’s situation was a lot more dire than many here thought. And Trump is about to dump a whole lot of negative advertisements in an attempt to define Harris as a left wing extremist. The fact that Democrats are enthusiastic about Harris means zip, because they were voting for their ticket regardless, and Democratic enthusiasm fits into the coming GOP narrative about her being extreme. Harris is an underdog, just not as bad as Biden was.
Enthusiasm means turnout, which is probably going to be more important convincing the vanishingly few undecideds, so I wouldn’t say it means zip.