Just released. Note this was before Biden’s withdrawal.
Then, today, this was released:
Those are not great numbers overall.
The Black & Women voters will hopefully climb.
The 18-29 is reasonable, but higher would help.
Where is the link for this poll?
Here you go. Note this:
In other words, all of it is polling done from prior to Sunday.
So a nearly useless poll. I suspected as much.
I literally said that it was prior to Sunday, WE.
All polls are “nearly useless” this early in the race.
Removed my post as moved post and replies instead.
Think of that pre-Sunday poll as Harris’ floor. It already looked better than Biden’s ceiling, but now things will look even better I imagine.
For a Democrat, getting anything less than 90% of the black vote means serious trouble.
Yes, but I meant as in almost no value as things have changed dramatically since the poll was conducted.
Wait until the next poll, based on the new reality. That one was worthless.
Summary
The first three paragraphs of the image you broke seemed on point and had nothing to do with a dated poll.
~Max
Moderating: Don’t argue moderation in thread.
I just pulled that post and the replies out to its own thread.
I restored the tweet.
Have fun.
Regarding the letter to the Trump campaign.
The TLDR version of it seems to be: Ignore the cult of personality that Harris is currently enjoying, eventually that will fade away and we will win on the issues.
If this is the Republican party saying this then they must really be in trouble.
It’s a boiler plate “Don’t Panic!” memo. Both sides will have a dozen or more of these in their inboxes by November.
Nah. It’s pragmatic and reasonable and a correct analysis.
I’m not so sure. He’s saying they will link Harris to Biden’s policies. Biden’s policies are stellar; it’s his perceived health and vitality that sunk him; not his policies.
I should have been more clear. The analysis in the beginning where he discussed how the polling may go is correct.
I have no comment on the strategy discussed at the end.
And we have a very basic NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll conducted July 22, 2024: It is 45% Harris to 46% Trump to 9% undecided.
Add Kennedy to the mix and it 42% for both and 7% for Kennedy with 1% for Stein and 1% for West. <1% for Oliver.
This stands out to me:
- 87% of Americans think Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race was the right thing to do. 12% believe it was the wrong thing to do.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted Monday and Tuesday: Harris 44% to Trump at 42%
Kamala. Not Kamela, as in the thread title.