I think this would be helpful to gauge where people are coming from and how they feel at this point. It would add context to some of the discussions.
List, at the least, your best estimate of the odds (in percentage out of 100%) of Biden winning at this moment versus Harris’ odds versus your favorite candidate that you think has a reasonable chance of getting the nomination.
I think Biden has 40% odds of beating Trump. He only eked out victory against Trump by the skin of his teeth four years ago, and he’s polling worse now than he was then.
I’d give Kamala about 60% odds - she’s better than Biden, but still rather widely disliked.
I think any other mainstream Democrat, such as Newsom, Pritzker, Bullock, etc. stands a 70% or even 80% chance of defeating Trump.
Nate Silver guessed that Biden will have a 20 percent chance, in his model, once ten days or so of post-debate polls get factored in. In my heart, I do not see it, because, in the past four years, Trump’s voter appeal is unchanged, and Biden’s lessened. So I have to say — 10 percent.
If there is a brokered convention, I have no basis for an opinion. But as a pessimist I’ll say 40 percent.
538’s 50-50? Inexplicable to me.
Biden v Trump: 45 % if nothing changes drastically between now & November.
Biden v Trump: actually impossible to calculate because the odds of heart attack, stroke, senior moments, and death are actually not too low for men of their age in a given four-month period of high stress and full-time work, not to mention world events.
Anyone else v. Trump is the Democrats unite behind them NOW: 75%
Anyone else v. Trump in any remotely realistic scenario: 45%.
Too late to edit: “if” rather than the “is” that doesn’t make sense.
Roughly 55% Biden.
Harris has a 45% chance.
Biden has a greater than 50% chance of winning based on what I expect to occur between now and the election. Any other Dem candidate winning is a fantasy, IMO.
What @Stratocaster said.
The idea of the Ds changing horses now simply guarantees total abject defeat. If it is/was to be done at all, the time to swap Biden out and somebody else in as heir apparent (or better termed nominee presumptive) was about 2 years ago.
Biden in our real world will outperform any D that the party might choose in some alternate fantasy world that diverges starting today. Had the Ds diverged those worlds 2 years ago the calculus would now be different. But they did not and here we are.
Which also means that if Biden can’t win, then no D can win.
Sorry.
Care to be specific with percentages, as requested? Or do you entirely agree with Stratocaster’s numbers?
So, like, below 10%?
Any non-Biden D versus Trump? Zero percent chance of a win. Not today, and not in November.
Biden vs. Trump? Mid 40s percent chance of a Biden win if the vote was today. With a reasonable chance of improving that by November enough to actually win it.
November may well be a squeaker and I would not be surprised to see the popular and electoral votes go opposite ways given their respective biases.
As always, what matters is if the Ds bother to vote. They can be energized by fear of an unfettered RW dictatorship just as well as they can be energized by a inspiring D orator / candidate such as Obama or Clinton in their primes. But energized they must be or this one will make Reagan-Dukakis look like a nail-biter.
Anally extracted numbers are an exercise in self-delusion. Putting down any 2 digit percentage implies accuracy to 1 part in 100. Which is nonsense.
Sure, but without some kind of context, no matter how much of an ass pull it is, all we have is a bunch of pointless screaming at each other about how how obviously Biden is [the only one who can / can’t possibly] beat Trump.
Hmm. I’ll say 20%. So, “unlikely” would have been a better word than “fantasy.”
Biden vs Trump: 50%
Any other Democrat vs Trump: 0%
Dems have to get out the younger voters and the double haters to the polls. Biden is challenged on that score.
The default has to be Kamala, because she knows the donors and has access to the Biden Harris funding. She flips the age “issue” to a liability for Trump. Madison Ave can probably drive a reset and Kamala will turn out more younger voters, blacks and Indian Americans than Biden will (when key states are decided by 10k voters, any block that will come out helps).
I get some of you think it’s Biden or Bust. Biden either has to turn things around 180 degrees this week, or he’s taking on water.
Al Franken has a pretty good podcast on this. Guest Norm Orestein
Thanks, but about those specific numbers…? 
I’ve said before that I think some polling is driven by a need for drama. Websites need clicks and pundits need followers. Fund raisers will have more success if they can say “your dollars could make the difference!”
If Biden voluntarily drops out- Harris has a decent chance. No one else
However, the same survey found that neither Harris, nor any of the other Democrats being floated as contenders to replace Biden—including Whitmer and California Governor Gavin Newsom—would fare better than Biden in a two-way matchup against Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee.
Newsweek has contacted Whitmer’s representatives via email for comment.
In a Biden-Trump matchup, the poll found 45 percent of voters would back Biden, while 48 percent would choose Trump. Harris would perform the same in a head-to-head matchup against the Republican, according to the poll.
Other, lesser-known candidates would perform worse, although more voters would indicate they are “not sure” when it came to those matchups.
Holy crap, Whitmer in a hypothetical polls same as Biden. Lessee, what if it becomes real with Whitmer on the dementia attack against Trump, Whitmer in a debate against trump and bitch slapping trump with fact checking and logic, Whitmer appealing to the cheddar head states, none of the Israel/Palestine baggage, etc. IMHO I think she would start polling ahead of Biden real soon if it was a real match up.
Not quite but almost.
But it cant be anyone but Harris.
Only listed that as Whitmer as a hypothetical candidate is polling even with Biden.
I’m drawing the same conclusion. Harris is the VP, next in line, and has the fund raising. Sidesteps the shit show of pulling a black woman off the ticket in favor of a white guy, especially when the right to choose and by extension the Supremes are explicitly on the ballot. The entire party needs to coalesce around Harris and mission one of beating Trump like a dead horse.
Furthermore, can flip the script on the age thing vs trump, will use the federal prosecutor experience to both fact check and eviscerate Trump should he be so stupid as to step into the octogon with Harris. And if Trump dodges a debate, Harris will get under his skin as a black woman calling him a pussy.
IMHO opinion, improving Harris public perception (she has name recognition but is largely unknown) will be easier than Bidens. No matter what, Joe ain’t getting younger and there is no spin in the world on that front. Unfair it may be, but the Repubs have the narrative going there, which flips should younger blood like Harris be on the top of the ticket.