CBS reports alleged plan to attack the Capitol tomorrow (edited title)

[gdave]

@Buck_Godot

Very unlikely. See unlike the current leader of the US, the leaders of Iran actually pay close attention to world politics. They know that Biden is showing an inclination to reinstating the Iran nuclear accord, and that it was Trump who authorized the attack against Soleimani. Which is why they singled him out in their arrest warrant to Interpol.

On the other hand this threat perfectly fits the agenda of a right wing activist who hopes to shut down the electoral vote confirmation, wants to exacerbate anti Muslim sentiment in the US, and has a poor understanding of the US/Iran conflict such that they think that they threat the broadcast is the sort of thing that Iran would actually do.

@Cervaise

I’m married to an Iranian woman and I am close with her extended circle of family and friends.

I would assert, quite strongly, that Iranians have a much better sense of perspective on their own government, and on the relationship between the American public generally and the U.S. government, than the inverse. There is no equivalence as implied above.

I’m going to try to be very careful with what I say here.

I don’t think the threat was an official act by an authorized agent of the Iranian government.

I don’t think that there is enough information right now to do more than take a wild guess on who or why. It’s possible it was an American right-winger who wanted to disrupt the vote count and used a “false flag.” It’s possible it was some who genuinely wants revenge for Soleimani’s death. It’s possible it’s a crank who just wants to sow chaos.

Please note that I was careful in my original post to say “many Iranians”, not “all Iranians” or even “most Iranians.” I did draw an equivalence with American attitudes towards Iran, and I will admit I overstepped there with precision and accuracy in an attempt at brevity and clarity. From everything I know and have read, the average Iranian generally has a more sophisticated and accurate understanding of the U.S. political system than vice versa. But do you really think that every Iranian and Iranian sympathizer really draws a sharp distinction between American presidential administrations? Again, Iran and the U.S. have been involved in a low-intensity conflict that has flared up into quasi-war multiple times since 1979, through seven U.S. presidential administrations, of both parties.

Having said that, I think it’s frankly silly to rule out even the possibility that the threat had exactly the motivations it said it did based on the idea that an Iranian or Iranian sympathizer wouldn’t want to target a vote to install the candidate who defeated Trump.

It’s a joint session of the U.S. Congress, which (in theory, we’ll see if Pence actually shows up) will be attended by the Vice President of the administration that ordered Soleimani’s assassination. I don’t see how you can seriously argue that it’s impossible that an Iranian or Iranian sympathizer would see an attack on that gathering as an opportunity to avenge General Soleimani’s assassination.

Again, I’m not arguing that the threat was actually motivated by genuine anger over General Soleimani’s assassination. I’m just saying the possibility shouldn’t be ruled out out of hand.