Following is a grammar test which in answer keys sheet, (b) is mentioned as the correct one. The question is why (a) can’t be used? or it can be but when these two are given as a choice, (b) stands the first priority. I’m after the subtlety of the reason.
Mary: I’ve got it. … it’s Dobson. Yes, that’s it — Michael Dobson.
When you say surely, you’re saying ‘I’m pretty sure this is true’.
When you say certainly, you are saying ‘I am absolutely certain this is true’.
In the sentence, it’s like the person is saying ‘I can’t remember the name. Oh, hang on, I have a feeling (surely) it might be Dobson. Oh yes, now I remember and I’m absolutely certain that it is Michael Dobson.’
So surely is correct for the first part of their sentence, then they could add certainly to the second part if they wanted to (but it’s somewhat implied in the sentence structure).
To me, I think this is one of those cases where certainly and surely mostly mean the same, but someone who says “certainly” sounds a little stuffy or formal or show-offish.
One would be more likely to use certainly in writing, rather than conversation.
None of those choices, except perhaps “naturally”, would actually be incorrect. Which you would use would depend on nuances of the intended meaning, but “surely” would, indeed be the most likely of those choices. As sandra_nz says, despite appearances, “surely” actually conveys a hint of doubt, of unsureness, which the others do not.
If Mary were to say, “Certainly, it’s Dobson,” it would mean she was 100% sure. She then would have no reason to say, “Yes, that’s it — Michael Dobson.” Both sentences would mean the same thing.
As sandra_nz states, the implication is that Mary is going through a process of becoming sure while she is speaking. She was almost sure it was Dobson when she said her second sentence, but became even more sure when she spoke her third sentence.
This is some pretty advanced stuff, so I am not surprised you are having some trouble. Most native speakers would notice there was something that sounded weird, but would not know what was wrong.