Chance China invades Taiwan

[Shalmanese]

@Stranger_On_A_Train

I agree that Taiwan let military readiness fall into a poor state in the late-‘Nineties and beginning of the 2000s because the rhetoric about PRC ‘reunification’ became just kind of a background noise but what I’ve seen of readiness estimates in the last ten years shows substantial improvement.

Oh really, where exactly have you seen these “estimates” of readiness improvement? Because they are totally counter to the consensus view:

Neglect is hurting military morale (Taipei Times, 2011)

Forget the PLA, Taiwan’s Military Threatens Itself (The Diplomat, 2013)

Taiwan Spy Affair Shines Light on Military Morale(Wall Street Journal, 2015)

For Taiwan youth, military service is a hard sell despite China tension (Reuters, 2018)

Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell (Foreign Policy, 2020)

Taiwan’s army ‘ill-prepared’ for potential Chinese attack (Deutsche Welle, 2021)

Poor preparation and low morale are pressing concerns [for Taiwan’s military]; sweeping leaves and pulling weeds in basic training (Wall Street Journal, 2021)

They Were Trained to Defend Taiwan From China. They Aren’t Sure They Can. (Vice, 2022)

Taiwan is readying citizens for a Chinese invasion. It’s not going well. (Washington Post, 2024)

One tell I use for who is worth paying attention to in the China-Taiwan conversation is who has a realistic assessment of Taiwan’s military. It’s not the “sexy” part of the China-US great powers battle so amateurs don’t bother learning anything about it.