What percentage chance do you think Obama has of being assassinated:
- during the election?
- assuming he wins, as president?
I bring this up after reading this.
(Sorry if this has already been a topic, I looked around and didn’t see it!)
Earlier thread…Assassination attempt probability on Obama vs. Clinton
No one has ever been assassinated while running for President, so let’s guess less than 1% for that.
If elected, about 9%. Whoever is elected will be the 44th POTUS. Four Presidents have been assassinated. Do the math.
Probably as close as you are going to get for a factual answer.
Regards,
Shodan
Ever hear of a guy named Robert Kennedy?
Not recently.
My bad. I only thought of Wallace, and he didn’t die until much later.
Regards,
Shodan
I know people that get that vibe about him. It’s the downside of being Kennedyesque; we will forever associate a handsome young president (or an inspirational black man) with assassination.
The terrorists have won.
The chance will increase or decrease depending on who’s chosen as VP.
I’m thinking he should pick Al Sharpton for VP.
You can’t calculate a simple probability percentage based on past assassinations. Security for the POTUS is many orders of magnitude better now than it was in the 19th Century, and many times better than during the 1960s. So I would guess the probably is a lot less than 9%.
For instance, what’s the likelihood that Obama will be riding a train anytime soon?
Well right off the bat there are at least a billion fewer people that hate him than hate Dubya, and he’s managed to avoid any trouble. Sure it only takes one nutjob, but still.
You know, no one will ever mistake me for an Obama fan, but when you first had the idea for this post, did it ever occur to you at all that it is inappropriate?
I posted what I think is quality material in the link given in Post#2.
All modern presidents have had genuine assassination attempts against them and the number of half-assed ones in greater by many order of magnitude. In short, many people will try to assassinate whoever becomes the next president. Some will be delusional quacks that can barely get dressed in the morning. Some will have workable plans but they are a long-shot.
John Hinkley shot Ronald Reagan with a pitiful .22 caliber handgun yet he managed to debilatiate a SS agent for life and seriously hurt Reagan all for the attention of the love of Jody Foster who, unfortunately, appears to be a lesbian. What a waste. Hinckley got really lucky for a sick person. That isn’t a powerful gun.
My guess is that the Secret Service has given some thought to this concept.
When I was a kid, Martin Luther King Jr. came to our small hometown for a sort of private meeting with some of his staff. I actually met him for a few minutes while I was fishing with a friend on the nearby river, but that is another story. One thing I remember, as nosy kids we were hanging around the parking lot and looked in the window of a station wagon owned by one of his staff members (a very nice women we had also met). Inside the station wagon was a box of letters that was spilling out and we could read bits and pieces - it was chock full of vile hate mail addressed to MLK with unbelievable comments. Even as kids, we were shocked by how many, and how scary those letters were.
I can only imagine what shows up in Obama’s mail everyday and glad that the US Government now assigns Secret Service details to all major candidates and their families. I would like to think that chances of something horrible happening are slight, but as others have mentioned - it only takes one nutcase to be at the wrong place at the wrong time. My guess is that Hillary and even McCain get their fair share of wackos as well.
Wasn’t there also a recent report that even Jay Leno’s wife was put on some kind of a hit list as well?
Or Charlie Manson
Oh no? Wasn’t Bobby Kennedy? 
There are some bigots furious at the thought of Obama running for president. It just takes one.
I understand not reading a thread if it’s eight pages long, but four posts?
Regards,
Shodan
OK then what is the line? I’m hot at the moment so offer some odds.
Excuse the preceding, apparently I have far poorer taste than I thought.