Not many thought the chances of electing a black President were realistic; some didn’t even thing it was possible even after Obama started winning primaries.
Got me to thinking - what are the chances of others winning the Presidency in the next 20 years? (Poll to follow in a minute or two.)
I think a Mormon could have a shot, so I added an “Other” vote for that. Mormons are probably about as well positioned as anyone from an “odd religion.” (Jews and atheists aren’t really that odd in America.)
I *hope *an unmarried person could have a shot.
ETA: Oh, and I didn’t vote for Asian heritage candidate, but that may be more likely than atheist, so I *should *have.
Probably won’t be Nikki Haley or Bobby Jindal, though.
I used to think that a woman would be really unlikely due to being statistically outcompeted, but I’ve changed my mind on that.
:dubious: Atheists aren’t odd in America? On the contrary they are practically and in some cases literally* looked upon as Satanic.
*Seriously; google Atheism + Satanism.
A woman, a Hispanic, an Asian, and a Jew are all something I can see in the next 20 yrs. We’ve had several widowers and one bachelor elected President in the past. I don’t think there’ll be a gay or Atheist President anytime soon, unless one takes over from an elected POTUS ala Gerald Ford. Ironic since several of the Founding Fathers were agnostics or Deists.
I wonder how many people knew that the founding were Deists… but really, the settlers were a eclectic bunch weren’t they? People from different countries and different histories.
In a mild form of irony, I was talking with a friend last weekend over the odds of a married couple as Pres. and VP. It was in the context of,
“How pissed would the Secret Service be if that happened?”
It’s my understanding that they don’t like it when the Pres. and VP are in the same place for an extended period of time, for nation security reasons. How freaked out would they be if both of them were sleeping in the same room, taking a lot of trips together, etc…?
Can the Secret Service “force” the VP to not live with his/her spouse at the White House and live at the Naval Observatory?
The married couple idea has too many practical problems:
The Prez and VP are supposed to be from different states.
The VP’s job is to take over when the Prez is incapacitated–a spouse in mourning or distracted by the other spouse’s condition would be at a disadvantage.
Alternatively, if something bad happened to the Prez’s spouse, the distraction could compromise the Prez’s ability to do the job, and if that spouse was VP, then the Prez would have to appoint someone else as VP anyway.
I don’t see a good reason to do it.
Atheists are seen as odd in some places, as are half-Kenyan Democrats. Doesn’t mean they *are *odd.
Plenty of people think Democrats are a Russian fifth column of Gaia-worshiping sexually perverted baby killers, too–and Democrats get elected. At this point, Republican politicians are stereotypable as financially incompetent closeted gay men afraid of math and science–and Republicans get elected.
It matters less what your enemies think of you than how many people will vote for you.
I said (among other things) an openly gay candidate because this candidate would definitely be a Democrat and the red states wouldn’t go for it but they won’t go for a Democrat anyway. I think (hope) most if not all blue states would go for it in 20 years.
A woman is possible, as is a Hispanic candidate. I doubt any of the other groups will be represented in my lifetime, which would encompass approximately the next 20 years.
Atheists are odd. Only 1.6% of Americans identify themselves as atheist. We are very, very much in the minority here.
Anyway, in answer to the poll, a woman, Latino, Asian, or Jewish person can win within 20 years. The rest, no way in heck. Maybe an unmarried person, but not an unmarried woman unless she’s a widow.
Maybe a physically handicapped POTUS who can’t hide it with press complicitness.
That was my thought, too. A military vet missing a leg or two could make it (hey, there’s the female, asian representative who lost both legs when her chopper got shot down; that’s a trifecta).
Atheists (note spelling, by the way) are quite common, but people who admit that they’re atheists (which is what I assume the poll meant) are considerably less so, especially in politics.
And we’ve already had an unmarried President.
Under Other–
A Lesbian could, if:
[LIST=A]
[li]She is a Lipstick Lesbian[/li][li]Her Partner is a Lipstick Lesbian[/li][li]They make out, on camera, in the campaign ads.[/li][li]VICTORY![/li][/LIST]
We have, but not since gay people as a whole have started to participate openly and out-ly in society at large. I think electing an unmarried person, especially a never-married person, is a completely different situation now than it was in Buchanan’s day and would be perceived very differently by the electorate as a whole. The increased prominence of the President’s Spouse (thus far “First Lady”) has an effect, too.
I don’t see an out gay president or an open atheist in the next 20 years, but then, I’d love to be wrong.
So, anybody know of any Jewish Asian/Hispanic single females in politics?
The poll should perhaps have included:[ul][li]Another black president[/ul][/li]
I didn’t feel, in 2008, that this nation was “ready” for a black president. It seemed to me that a significant part of Obama’s appeal at the time was the “anything but another Republican” backlash after 8 years of Bush Jr., in conjunction with the view that McCain was just “Bush III”.
In other words, I felt that some substantial part of the Obama voters were, really, voting against Bush/McCain/Republicans-in-general.
Given the national paroxysm of anti-Obama hostility we’ve seen in the last four years, specifically from conservatives, I sadly conclude that I was right about that. I feel this nation still isn’t ready for a black president, even while we now have one, and I don’t know how much longer it will be until we are.
If anything, the unleashing of the right-wing orgy of hatred, inspired by Obama’s very existence, may have set back the cause.
The hatred of Obama is due to his politics, not his race for most of his opponents. Were Herman Cain or Tim Scott or Allan West the GOP nominee, most of the Tea Party would vote for him in a heartbeat over a white Democrat.
Anyhow I chose women, Hispanics, Asians, singles, and others. One possibility people didn’t mention is a Muslim President. I don’t think its utterly impossible for a homosexual or an atheist to be President but in a close election that may be a factor between being elected and not.
Right, in 2008 anyone with (D) next to their name could have taken the election. Obama could have actually been born in Kenya and people would have been like, “Yeah, fuck the Constitution. Throw him in there.”
Yeah, I’ve had white friends tell me that they’ve learned that seemingly reasonable people they know (relatives mainly) have come out of the woodwork with their crazy ideas. Unfunny racist joke fwds have quintupled since Obama came around. But while his election has uncovered a lot latent racial hostility from dumb asses, for the rest of us, I think this has primed people to be open to the idea of another black president. Maybe not another one in 20 years, but folks have seen that 8 years of the black man didn’t send the nation into a sinkhole.