Yesterday I went to see one of my college professors to settle up on a twenty-year-old bet. Many moons ago, you see, he’d wagered that we would see a female US president before we saw a black one, and we put 20 bucks down on it, and I have a llllloooonnnggggg memory.
Which makes me wonder: assuming that the United States remains a viable country with the basic system of governance for the next 200 years, how long will it be before we see
[ul]
[li]a female president[/li][li]an openly gay president[/li][li]an openly lesbian president[/li][li]an openly atheist president[/li][li]a Muslim president[/li][li]a Hindu president[/li][li]a Jewish president[/li][li]a Buddhist president[/li][/ul]
20 years ago, wouldn’t Obama seemed like an impossiblity? A black president? Hah!
Having said that, I’d say “female President” looks the most likely next “first”, if only because the potential pool is so much greater. Obviously 50%+ of Americans are female, while only a few percent are gay, lesbian, Hindu, etc. And while I can think off the top of my head of a good handful of potential female Presidential candidates, I can’t think of any for the others.
I do think we’ll see an atheist (or agnostic) President in my lifetime, though. Just a wild hunch.
The following are fairly likely within a generation or two:
[ul]
[li]a female president[/li][li]a Jewish president[/li][/ul]
These two are a distant possibility, probably not within my lifetime:
[ul]
[li]an openly gay president[/li][li]an openly lesbian president[/li][/ul]
These last four will never happen. No way, no chance. We’ll see a true global government before any of these are possible. As for the U.S. as it currently exists, forget about it.
[ul]
[li]an openly atheist president[/li][li]a Muslim president[/li][li]a Hindu president[/li][li]a Buddhist president[/li][/ul]
The only chance for this is if said president announces such after he/she has already taken office. And he or she can count on losing the reelection if it’s the first term.
I’m starting to doubt that, though. Even I’m surprised at how dramatically the Christian influence on public life has declined over the last 10-20 years. I’d say that it’s possible in 50 years (or, hopefully, within my lifetime) that a majority of people in the US will be irreligious.
Come to think of it…we’ve already had a Deist president. That’s about halfway there already…
50 years? You are aware that 85+% of the country is religious, right?
Jefferson was not exactly elected by the people.
No, Muslim will come before atheist. Pew (I think) did a survey on voting preferences, and a majority of respondents said they would not vote for an atheist. No other group had a refusal rate that high.
What would happen if the president called a press conference one day and announced that he or she had just renounced a previous faith and converted to some new controversial faith, or become agnostic? Have there been any cases where something similar has happened?
I think the first out the gate from that group will be a female president. I think that there might be some backlash that could put a gay man in the white house in the near term as well. I think there are too many conspiracy nuts for a Jewish president until things calm down in the Middle East.
Buddhism is a pretty non-threatening religion and we might see it pared with an Asian President which could happen after the first Latino President. People forget who they hate only a couple of generations ago I think that the Muslim thing will be over in a couple of decades and just based on populations have a shot.
By that point I think that people will be accepting enough of both homosexuality and women in power for a lesbian to make it. Hindu is not a commonly encountered religion in the U.S. and I think this hurts their chances because not only will the non-Christian thing have to be overcome they’ll have to spend time explaining what they do believe. Too many people are scared of the evil that is atheism and in the U.S. at least probably will never happen.
If I was going to put a time line on it I go;
a female president - 20 years
an openly gay president - 50 years
a Jewish president - 55
a Buddhist president - 60
a Muslim president - 80
an openly lesbian president - 120
a Hindu president - 150
an openly atheist president - 500
Will it truly take that long to elect an atheist president? Maybe I’m understimating the strength of people’s religious beliefs but that seems insane to me. I don’t understand how it seems more likely that a Muslim president gets elected before an atheist one…I mean, wouldn’t a hardcore religious person rather see someone who doesn’t believe than someone who believes the opposite of them?
Most of the very religious aren’t going to be alive in 50 years. I don’t think the next generation is going to be anywhere near 85%. Two generations from now, I reckon it will be even less.
I’m still not buying that the idea of an atheist president in 50 years is so intrinsically unlikely. 50 years ago, Barack Obama couldn’t have eaten lunch in a lot of places in Washington, DC. I’d say that’s a hell of a bigger mountain to climb in 50 years than where atheists are now.
