All weekend long we were deluged with dire warnings of a major lake effect snowstorm extending from the city all the way down to South Bend, IN. There were forecasts of 8 to 12 inches of snow. Since we have tomorrow off for Veterans Day, I had visions of sugar plums dancing in my head in the form of a 4 day weekend.
Guess what? YET AGAIN meteorologists grossly exaggerated the conditions. A foot of projected snow turned into 3 inches, and I’m getting sick of exaggerated and inaccurate weather predictions. These people have billions of dollars worth satellites and doppler 2 radar to help them produce what should be decent weather predictions, but they continue to produce inaccurate ones.
I know what’s going on. Dire warnings produce more viewers or clicks. “Gee, it’s going to be nice” produces less. Also, they don’t want the angry backlash they’ll get if they predict 3 inches and we get 8 to 12 instead.
Oh yes, our snowpocalypse is a light dusting of snow that’s sticking around in rooftops or leaf piles but which otherwise melted on contact with the ground. The freezing rain also did not materialize, though at least one puddle that I can see looks a little slushy.
Here 20 miles west of the lake, we received a light dusting. Well under 2”.
My question for the OP is, why do the exaggerated warnings bother you? How do they inconvenience you? Maybe be sure you have gas for your snowblower. And make any immediate plans tentative. Plan for the worst and hope for the best. Then just go about your business.
It seems weather has always been exaggerated - sending poor reporters out in parkas and into hurricanes. I never understood why folk were so enthusiastic about Tom Skillethead (a legend around Chicago) and his isobars and everything. Just give me a ballpark temp and tell me if I oughta wear a jacket or bring an umbrella. And figure anything forecast further ahead than tomorrow might change.
I’m quite sure I listed the reasons in my OP but, to reiterate, the consistently exaggerated and inaccurate predictions bother me because I expect people to do their jobs to the best of their abilities, and I believe they are not doing that because they have an established pattern of exaggerating for effect and exaggerating to cover their asses.
So basically there is no pleasing you? They’re damned either way doing a job that is about predictions, not statements of fact. Personally I thing erring on the side of caution is a lot better than saying, ‘Eh, it should be no big deal’ and having the mother of all storms roll through.
Well, that’s not what I said. I’m not “damning them either way”, I’m peeved because I’ve seen a long established pattern, and I listed the reasons why I believe they do it.
My peeve with the national news forecasts is things like 30 MILLION PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM!!! BE AFRAID!!! Network news has become a series of soundbites meant to shock and mislead.
Are they worried about possible litigation if they under report and it causes lives to be lost?
I’m not in that business. I do know that some lawsuits in 2025 that seem reasonable are getting tossed out and that some that seem like they were crafted on Meth are getting traction.
This morning I had to decide if I was going into the office or staying home for work. The weather forecasts were between “a little rain” and “some sleet” and “4 inches of snow”. So yes, it does bother me when the forecasts are inaccurate. But I’m aware that perfect predictions are impossible when the temperature is hovering around the freezing point.
If you are looking at weather information from any source other than NWS, you’re looking at a hype machine, not a weather forecast.
Simply avoid all sources of weather info other than NWS and you’ll find your forecasts are quite accurate and also quite subdued. They usually match reality pretty closely.
Net of course of the wide area effect: “rain likely today” means rain is likely somewhere in your ~county sometime today. Not that it will occur exactly wherever you are exactly when you’re happening to be in that spot.
“I don’t know. It’s a guess, it’s wind, man. Blows all over the place.”
I golf weekly with a BIL who pays A LOT of attention to the weather - figuring he is somehow going to be able to figure it out. Over time, I’d say he’s about as reliable as me looking out my window.
I used to run daily along the lakefront. I quickly realized it was pointless to try to get precise data as to the specific temp and how it would FEEL (combined with wind, humidity, clouds…).
Lake effect snow is notoriously difficult to predict and its amounts can vary wildly mile to mile. Yesterday I told the kids we’d have anywhere from 1 inch to 1 foot of snow for this reason. My kids were more than happy with the 3-4" or so we got here in the city (Chicago.) If you were near the Wisconsin border or in NW Indiana, you got a lot more. Crown Point got 10", for instance.
Political pundit comes to mind. Stock market analyst probably works, too. Fortune teller? You can also say “baseball player” as a good average is well below .500, but that’s not quite the same as being “right” or “wrong.”
Out here 40 miles west of Chicago, we got a dusting. Kenosha WI which is just about lakefront got 10.5 inches of snow. It’s the constant Chicken Little dire predictions that annoy me. For 2 days we’ve been subjected to constant weather warnings like it’s gonna be the blizzard of 67.
