Disclaimer: I don’t have a problem with weathermen / meteorologists. I don’t even get annoyed when I see Al Roker’s big head on the tube. I’m a complete weather ignoramus & the only thing I know about nimbo stratus clouds is it’s a fun word to say.
From my vantage point, I’ve noted a meteorologist’s biggest Achille’s heel is predicting snowfall amounts. I realize it’s in my human nature to recall innacurate snowfall predictions of the past, but I honestly can’t recall a storm where the local meteorologists prediction if strayed close to the margin of error. I probably sound like a cynic, but I think weathermen suffer from male measurement complex: when the snowfall prediction exceeds 12" they’re lucky if it even reaches the 6" mark. I don’t have any scientific cites that prove how inaccurate previous blizzard predictions have been, but I think it’s fair to note that it’s impossible to lay a bet on snowfall amounts anywhere in the city of Las Vegas. If they can find political odds makers to come up with a line on the elections and calculate the spread on every Division III basketball game in the country, is it just a coincidence they won’t lay odds on snow fall?
Anyway, just to be proven wrong, I’m going to make a prediction before the first flake falls (and prior to heading out on the road in my RWD Mustang to drive my daughters to their games):
Area: Long Island, NY
Meteorologist’s Prediction: 12-18" with gusts over 24"
My Prediction: 4-5"
Actual Snowfall Amount: Undetermined (until 1PM tomorrow)
So, if you live on the north eastern seaboard of the US and would like to contribute a pre-blizzard prediction for your area, go right on ahead. Or, if you’d just like to report back with a post giving us the weatherman’s original prediction and the final amount, I think this may be the first storm I recall where they got it right.
Area: Washington DC Metro & suburbs Meteorologist’s Prediction: 6-10 inches; 8-12 north & west My Prediction: 10-12 inches, 12-18 inches north & west (w/drifting on Sunday) Actual Snowfall Amount: To Be Determined on Sunday morning
Now they’re calling for the heaviest amounts to start falling this afternoon. Will return tomorrow morning with the accuracy check.
**Area: Portland Maine, and outlying communities (specifically, Steep Falls)
Meteorologist's Prediction: 6-12 inches; Higher drifts
My Prediction: 12-16 inches, drifts up to 2 feet
My desire: 8-10 feet. My truck and snowblower have yet to be effectively "challenged"
Actual Snowfall Amount: To Be Determined on Sunday night**
Area: Baltimore, MD Metro & suburbs
Meteorologist’s Prediction: 8-15" by Sunday (WBAL, NBC affiliate)
My Prediction: 4-5 inches
Actual Snowfall Amount: To Be Determined on Sunday morning
They always make such dire predictions, and hardly anything comes of it. OMG THERE MIGHT BE WEATHER!!! seems to be their mandate. :rolleyes: We’ll see, though. I’ve been surprised by weather here before. Not ‘challenged’, as Scruloose says, but surprised. You can’t ‘challenge’ someone who is used to dealing with -47 and drifts as tall as a horse.
Quick warning out to you guys, the forecast for my area has been pretty much dead-on for this storm so far. There’s a car in my apartment’s parking lot that is almost completely buried by snow drifts. Batton down the hatches!
I think it was fairly accurate here in my part of NE Ohio as well. They were saying 4-10 inches, and last time I was out, I’d guess at 6-8 inches. Not major, sure, but they’re saying another 1-3 inches this afternoon and 1-2 overnight.
While getting ready for work yesterday morning, I heard these predictions for centeral NH: The weather channel - 1"; WMUR “blizard-like conditions” no inches hazzarded while I listened; NECN 5". All of which leads me to believe that they haven’t got any more idea than I do, despite their fancy, expensive weather equipment. And they never admit they blew it, either. Did we get a “gee folks, I guess we really muffed that one” when their 1-3" turned out to be 9" two weekends ago? Hell no. Currently the weather channel is predicting 6-10"
My guess is 7-9" for central NH.
I feel for people in MA - the show I was watching on the Boston NBC station already had a cancelations scroll six hours ago and it hasn’t snowed a flake here yet.
Snow started falling here at around 10AM today, and while it hasn’t been especially hard, it’s been steady. As of 5:00 PM, my back yard has 4.5", according to the official Great Neck Saw Maufacturers, Inc. of Mineola NY metal yardstick.
The weather dice-rollers are saying we can expect 8-12 inches by the time all is said and done.
Area: Pittsburgh
Prediction: Varied, but 5"-9" typical
Actual: Meh, 3"? 2-3/8"? And that’s generous. Seems to have varied tremendously across the region though.
And what kind of margin of error are we starting off with? 5-9 is a huge spread. Why not say 0-400" and be done with it?
I think people’s expectations are too high, but they can’t really give a disclaimer before every forecast. “We have no idea, but here’s a guess…”. Maybe a (nother) crawl across the bottom of the screen?
You screwed that one up. Boston Metrowest here. I can barely even open my front door to get out. Local news reports 22 inches on the ground now with more to come. Some areas may top 40 inches. Highest snowfall from a storm in almost 30 years.
Well, I just got back inside from snowblowing. The snow is still falling, but it is largely winding down now. Looks like we got about 6-12" here - just as predicted. (I said a foot+ in another thread - but that was before I went outside) Drifts are approaching 3 feet in some areas - it is windy!
However, the forecast came from a Portland site, and I believe that Portland has seen more snow totals than where I’m at.
The total is still woefully short of my hopes. Oh well, we’ll get 'em next time. Looks like Boston got hammered!
