I have it on good authority that you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
but it does help to know what direction is “downwind” of where we launch before we’re on the launch field.
Googling, the website for WSBT (CBS affiliate in South Bend) says “South Bend had record breaking snowfall on Sunday, seeing 8.2" of snow. The previous record for that date was 8", set back in 1913.” So were they incorrect?
@Spiderman two posts up …
It’s also handy to know whether upwind is a wheat field or a stockyard. Or an intensive pig farm.
We try not to land in planted fields, but after they’re cut down - What a wonderful, wide open place to land.
We have landed in cow pastures before, too. They spook but then quickly get their mojo back & cows are inquisitive animals. The goal is to pack up, while avoiding the patties, before the inquisition begins; usually they’re docile animals but they still way in the low 4-figures! I’d rather not have to move one, or especially have one mad at me!
Speaking as someone who considered meteorology as a career, and is a lifelong “weather nerd”:
When it comes to winter storms, in particular, snowfall forecasts for a particular location are really tricky. If the storm’s path deviates by just a few miles, or (as was the case on Monday’s storm here in the Chicago area) the wind direction is just a little different, makes all the difference between a dusting and a dumping.
In Monday’s storm, locations in northeastern Illinois which were within a few miles of Lake Michigan did get 8-10" of snow, as did locations like Valparaiso in northwestern Indiana, but the amount which fell further west was, indeed, much less than many had predicted.
I do not generally believe that forecasters exaggerate to “generate clicks.” What I do think can happen is as you note in your OP:
Tom Skilling, the recently-retired head meteorologist at WGN-TV in Chicago (and a local legend) was, IMO, this way. I do think that his forecasts, especially for winter storms, tended towards the “worst case scenario” side of things, for this very reason.
IIRC, the OP lives in suburban Chicago (on the Illinois side); I think that they may have just mentioned South Bend as an example of the predicted swath of the storm.
Generally speaking, “lake effect snow” rarely affects the Illinois side of Lake Michigan, because prevailing winds generally blow out of the west, making Chicago and its Illinois suburbs “upwind” of the lake in most circumstances. OTOH, locations in northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan are much more likely to suffer big lake-effect snowfalls, because they’re generally downwind of the lake.
In this case, forecasters’ models were showing that, on Sunday night and early Monday morning, a very strong lake-effect wave was going to set up, which would be blowing in from the north-northeast, and seemed likely to lead to heavy lake-effect snowfall across Chicago and its suburbs. The uncertainty hinged on the wind direction, and exactly how far west into Illinois the band of heavy snow would extend; forecast maps from the NWS and private forecasters on Sunday generally showed a very narrow gradient of snowfall totals. On Sunday, I noted in another thread here, that for where I live (in west suburban Cook County), I was seeing some forecasts that predicted 2-3" for us, and some that predicted 8-10".
As I noted in my previous post in this thread, what actually happened was that the heavy snow was limited to locations in Illinois right along the lake, as well as in northwest Indiana; snowfall totals rapidly fell off as one moved west from the lake.
I’m weighing what way to go.
yes, I do know the difference between the two words/spellings…sometimes 
Little Miss Muffet sat on Tuffet eating her curds and weigh … er, I mean way, oops, I mean whey. 
Well, this isn’t Italy, where wrong predictions about natural events can send you to jail.
In general, weather forecasts going out 72 hours or so seem pretty accurate. We especially remember the times they went awry. Accurately forecasting lake-effect snow must be really tricky, seeing how accumulations vary so widely over short distances.
We got our predicted light dusting of snow early this week in central Kentucky, and lows were in the forecasted range.
I mostly use Weather Underground for short and long-term forecasts, the NOAA site for official statistics.
Yeah. IANA expert, but in my limited experience cattle are docile until they are not.
You’ll notice I was talking about upwind. Good bet you’re not going to land in the field upwind of your launch point. But depending on what it is, the aroma may permeate your entire launch. And hair. And clothes. And … 
Anyone British reading this thread knows exactly why they always tend to predict the worst.
The night before the’ “Great Storm of '87” hit the UK, the nationally broadcast BBC forecaster made the following comment on the national weather forecast:
“Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC* and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way. Well, if you’re watching, don’t worry, there isn’t!”
The storm that hit was the worst in centuries; 19 people died, many communities were cut off for days, and my paddling pool blew away.
I was a very small child at the time and we didn’t even have a television at home, so no-one in my family watched it, but Micheal Fish the presenter who made the comment, is the only weather forecaster I can name, nearly 40 years later and I don’t even need to look up the quote.
*This apparently never even happened, no-one had actually called to say this.
You say it’s going to be worse than it will be, and people grumble but that’s it, but you get it that wrong in the other direction? No-one will ever forget.
About a year ago our local TV station started advertising their First Alert weather. Except it’s always a First Alert day, even on extremely nice days. It makes you pay attention when you hear Alert! on TV. But it’s like the boy who cried wolf when you hear it every day. It’s also the station that exaggerates high or low temperatures beyond the displays (it shows 90 degrees and they’ll say that’s almost 100) and precipitation amounts and timing; other stations don’t do that. I trust the Google app on my phone for weather.
There are also different weather forecast sources with differing track records. I was paying particular attention to the weather forecast just before the total solar eclipse of April, 2024. Environment Canada was predicting total overcast in our area, but The Weather Network was saying there might be some clearing. And, indeed, they were right – the skies cleared just in time for the eclipse! The story of my life is usually the opposite!
You can if you get a box, but then technically that’s downwind of the upper level winds.
There was one festival where a crew person on another balloon slipped on the dewy morning grass…right down the hill into the manure pond. He was made to ride back in the trailer & his clothes had to be tossed after he got back to wherever he was staying. I believe he was hosed off outside before he was let inside for a shower, too! 
AH! … 
I hope that he also got a hepatitis vaccine.