If you are a friend of Taiwan, then you should be aware of the specific threats China is making, and the various aggressions they have taken, including lobbing bunches of missiles in the seas around here and seemingly daily intrusions into Taiwan’s ADIZ
They have convinced a good number of people that they are indeed serious. There are not the actions of a bunch of peaceniks.
It really isn’t that hard to prove. One good data point was their failed invasion of Vietnam, which was an utter disaster. Another was their lack of navy or any way to really prosecute a war against Taiwan until the last decade or so…and even today, the fact that they would face horrific losses even if the US decided not to get involved, and if the US did get involved that they would almost certainly fail…and failure would be the downfall of the CCP. You need to really look at the trajectory of Chinese military investment, and what they invested in (i.e. how much of their budget they spent and on what they spent it on) over time to understand why they couldn’t do this before, and why what they have been investing in for the last 2 decades is directly related to building a capability to eventually take Taiwan by force if all else fails. And why they would invest in that, as well as asymmetrically against the US Navy specifically, when investing in, oh, say their land forces to counter India or other ‘threats’ would make more sense if they weren’t planning to go after Taiwan specifically.
I think this is a fallacy that tries to ascribe to Xi all of the things China is doing. I think this is giving Xi too much credit and not giving the party itself enough. If it weren’t Xi it would be someone else. Perhaps that person wouldn’t wield the same levels of power as Xi, but the intent and trajectory of the party and what it planned/plans to do would be the same. YMMV of course and I see this a lot.