Why does China want Taiwan?

In My Humble Opinion
1

(Mods, feel free to move this to IMHO if that is a better place. I’d prefer the best rational/factual statements, not just anti-china comments.)

What has always baffled me is why China wants Taiwan so much? Is it nothing more than Taiwan hurt its pride?

To get Taiwan would come at enormous economic cost and would require great military cost.

At then end they would get a mountainous island that is probably utterly destroyed. Almost all economic value on the island would be wiped out. Even now, its population and its economy are tiny compared to China. The remaining populous would hate you and would probably wage domestic terrorism for decades.

It will weaken China’s military and damage its economy 20 times more than it will gain.

I am trying to find the rational upside.

I know sometimes people say China plays the long game. Are they thinking “Well, it will come at great cost, but in 80 years, the new populace will be the same as Chinese.”

2

There’s a sovereign nation 100 miles off their shore and they can’t have that. It’s more complicated than simply that of course, but I’m certain that’s essentially it.

3

It’s not rational, it’s emotional.

There is a strain of thought in Chinese nationalism that states, “Everything that was once part of China, should still be part of China.”

In this view, Tibetan independence, Mongolian independence, Korean independence, and Vietnamese independence were all bad things, created by European imperialists preying on the weakness of the Manchu dynasty.

4

Basically, “It used to be ours so it should be ours again.”

For a longer explanation, China has historically been a nation prone to fragmentation. It was (and is) geographically huge and its many rivers, mountains, deserts, etc. made it very difficult to keep united. So now that China has finally become a strong modern united nation at last, it is super-sensitive to the slightest idea of any “territory” falling away. On top of that, it was exploited many times by foreign nations (Opium War, Japanese invasion, etc.) and hence is particularly prickly to any notion of a foreign power (such as America) meddling around with “internal territory unity.”

But in a vein it’s similar to Putin logic. “Russia was accustomed to dominating its neighbors as the main empire of influence, so it should have control over its neighborhood again.” Similar with China. Filipino territory, South China Sea, Diaoyutai, Indian border, whatnot, they want parts of it.

5

Taiwan represents a challenge to China in that it presents an alternative way of life for Chinese people that is more open and democratic. Should China ever suffer a significant existential threat akin to the Soviet Union’s collapse, Taiwan would be a springboard for dissidents to try to quickly take advantage before the Communist party could crack down and retake power. They also see it as part of their nation and under enemy occupation.

It is why China has watched Russia’s invasion of Ukraine so closely.

6

One big reason is probably that if China no longer claims Taiwan, and no longer were to make vague, periodic threats, Hong Kong and other parts of China might be emboldened to seek their independence.

It’s not morally justified, of course, but it’s entirely rational.

7

Taiwan has a storied existence. Of recent history, it was occupied by Japan, who, after WW2 actually ceded control of it China. This treaty has survived legal challenge in Japan. Subsequent to this there was the Chinese Revolution. China is now occupied by the descendants of the old Chinese Imperial government.
The Chinese have long memories, and the insult of having the remnants of the government ousted in the revolution living in Taiwan clearly does not sit well with them. A significant part of China’s new prosperity began as Taiwanese companies outsourced work to the mainland and set up factories there. (Which sounds slightly crazy, but the ties are strong, and both sides benefited.)

Taiwan also represents a critical element of China’s claims to sovereignty over the South China Sea. The chain of islands from Taiwan down to the Spratly Islands is a significant prize.

China plays a long game. A long game means they will wait out Taiwan. Currently the accepted wisdom is that China will become the prosperous nation and Taiwan the poor cousin who will beg for reunion. The difficulty is that China has an ageing dictator for life. That never leads to well measured action. It isn’t China as a country that may start a hasty attempt at invasion, but a dictator with a Napoleon complex and an impending use-by date.

8

If you want a really bonkers example of Chinese thinking along these lines, look up the “Nine Dash Line”, which is a crazy huge claim China’s making to nearly the entirety of the South China Sea, based on this line being in some ancient map or other. That, and the oil that’s thought to be there.

9

Yeah, it would be akin to Illinois claiming all of Lake Michigan.

10

Or the US claming ALL of the Gulf of Mexico. That’s the scale we’re talking here- except a bit bigger in China’s case.

11

A military invasion would certainly have these detrimental consequences as well as almost certainly impacting Mainland China’s trade relations. The purpose of the buildup of the Chinese Army and Navy isn’t to actually prepare for an invasion but to make the Republic of China (ROC or ‘Taiwan’) sufficiently isolated that they make trade and political concessions to the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) in the interests of national security, and in a hypothetical eventuality eventually agree to ceed their sovereignty to the PRC. Frankly, I think this is a pipe dream; even without support by the US (which has bolstered Taiwan’s security establishment for decades even though the US doesn’t recognized the sovereignty of the ROC) Taiwan is just not going to hand over the reigns to Beijing.

The reason for the focus of the PRC in wanting to bring Taiwan ‘back into the fold’ is largely historical, although the geography of the island does also make it a strategic asset for whomever holds it. Taiwan is, of course, a major player in the semiconductor business, and as much as the PRC has developed their technological base Taiwan is still in the lead of advancing computing technology, so the PRC may hope that they could bend Taiwan to the will of its might as an economic powerhouse, but again I think that is unlikely in any foreseeable future.

If the PRC did invade Taiwan—which I don’t think is likely but since Russia inadvisably turned their forays into the Eastern Donbas into a full scale invasion I’ve retired my highly cracked crystal ball—it would be a massive shitshow. Other nearby nations in the East and South China Seas—Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Viet Nam, Indonesia—would take it as a direct threat, potentially spiraling into a broad regional war. If India got involved (not because they have any particular investment in Taiwan but because of how destabilizing a war with the East and Southeast Asian nations would be, and the already tense relations between China and India) it could potentially become a nuclear conflict. Of course, a direct conflict between China and the United States (which maintains a large naval presence in the Pacific and has trade interests and security alliances such as AUKUS in the region) could also potentially lead to a strategic confrontation, and one in which the growing capabilities of the Chinese Navy and military forces presents a very real challenge to the former dominance of the US Navy and British Royal Navy.

I sincerely hope that I am not wrong and that the PRC leadership understands that military invasion or even excessive economic pressure such as blockades would lead to serious and potentially catastrophic consequences. But I’ve been wrong about about so many things lately that I no longer have real confidence in saying that it absolutely will not happen.,

Stranger

12

There is a long tradition of sovereigns of China legitimizing their rule with the “Mandate of Heaven”. To summarize, the people believed that their rulers were legitimate when China was well-ordered. Things like natural disasters, overwhelming corruption, and rebellious provinces indicated that the emperor was failing to rule. And an emperor who failed to rule was not really the emperor, which meant that the position was available for the taking.

Although the Chinese Communist Party disavows imperialist paradigms like the Mandate of Heaven, they don’t trust the Chinese people to have entirely abandoned it. So an effectively independent Taiwan, which is a part of China, but not ruled by the central government, is a huge warning that the CCP does not have the Mandate of Heaven. It’s an open casus belli to overthrow the CCP.

13

Humans are a story-telling species. The way that you motivate millions (or a billion and a half) people to work together towards something is by weaving narratives. We humans invent abstract concepts like justice or money or states and religions, convince ourselves that the world revolves around them, and then move heaven and earth to make the world fit with our story.

One of the most impoetant stories to the entity we call China and the people who make it up, going back thousands of years, is the story of the Mandate of Heaven. The idea that China, long united, must divide; long divided, must unite. China goes through cycles. Noble leaders rise to unite the country; they become corrupted and lose the Mandate of Heaven, their nation falling into disrepair; they are conquered by outsiders or rebellion from within; a new Dynasty forms. This is the natural way of things, and how the world should be.

Now, Communism tells a very different story, one of class struggle between the owners of capital and the workers. And yet, China’s government has managed to merge the two narratives. The cyclical rise and fall of dynasties is over. The Communist Party is the natural conclusion to history.

But in order to prove that they are above the dynastic cycle, the Communist Party must show that they either possess the Mandate of Heaven, or are in fact completely above it. How do you do that? You unite all of China under your rule, forever.

If areas that were once China but no longer are get too far from the Chinese government’s sway, their legitimacy is called into question. Only by ruling undisputed over all of (greaterest historical extent) China does the CCP demonstrate this legitimacy.

In a way, I think it is similar to why ISIS propaganda claimed that they wanted to establish a Caliphate that encompassed all lands ever ruled by Muslims, from India to Spain. Anything less is an admission that you cannot legitimately claim that your authority derives from 10,000 years of Chinese history, or the Abbassid Caliphate, or whatever.

And hey, at the end of the day, that’s basically what Manifest Destiny was. God GAVE US this continent, and we prove that by taking ALL of it.

14

No no, Ninjas are from Japan, not China.

15

Your post is much more elegant than mine. :envious:

18

I moved this from FQ to IMHO.

19

The Communists may not believe in the Mandate of Heaven, but Marxism has its own quasi-religious streak of messianism. When you are looking for a pretext to conquer and control people , The Good of the People works just as well as God Wills It.

20

I think the point is that it doesn’t matter. The CCP claims their legitimacy derives from the will of the people, yes, but whether Xi himself believes in the Mandate of Heaven or not, it is a competing narrative. A disunited China gives this narrative strength. So ironically, to prove that their rule is legitimate and does not need the Mandate of Heaven, the CCP must nontheless comply with what the Mandate demands, IE full control over anything that anyone may consider “China”.

That is true, and if China secured Taiwan, Tibet, Mongolia, etc they may very well set their eyes on other targets using this kind of justification. But this thread is about Taiwan, and the Chinese propaganda doesn’t emphasize the plight of the Taiwanese worker and the CCP’s responsibility to spread the Revolution abroad in the name of International Communism; it emphasizes China’s historical ownership of Taiwan, Tibet, Mongolia, etc.

The question isn’t “what justification might China use against future targets who don’t (allegedly) fall within China’s historical borders?”, it’s “what does China want with Taiwan?”

21

Minor niggle, but the PRC’s claims on China of course long predate Xi - it’s just that Xi has accelerated the buildup of military forces and pressure on Taiwan rather than previous statement of intents and long-term waiting game on the recovery. And that Xi’s record on Hong Kong makes the consequences a clear and present danger if he does decide (for any/all of the reason’s upthread) to go forward with an aggressive answer to his ‘problem’.

I strongly suspect (since we’re in IMHO now) that Xi, having been so successful in stomping out internal questioning, and directing anger outwards (such as his take on the War in Ukraine) may well feel that Putin is correct: take what you want, because as long as the rest of the World doesn’t put boots on the ground, the PRC will likely win, given enough political and military will. And China is much better prepared and equipped to fight the economic war Russia is flailing with.

If Xi figures he can take Taiwan and wait until the next administration comes into power (or the one after that) and offer them a sweet deal to raise sanctions, it would be arguably a smart move from the POV of his legacy and power on the world stage. Of course, that’s completely ignoring the human cost on all sides, and the likely lethal final damage to any sort of influence the UN has on maintaining a tenuous balance among the powers.

22

Although, China is much more vulnerable to economic penalties, because its economy is more tightly integrated with the rest of the world. (Quick googling says China’s GDP is about $15 trillion, with about $2.5 trillion of that exports. So about one-sixth of their economy depends on external trade.)