Even assuming that China has under-reported identified case and death numbers by an order of magnitude it would be true that 99% of Hubei was uninfected and even more in the rest of China. Most of China’s residents are still susceptible to the virus, a vaccine is still a long way off, and they have been trying to bring some economic productivity back on line.
China’s death rate is now about 2.4 deaths/million population. Italy’s is currently roughy 100 times more, with social distancing in place. The virus is not gone in China; it is greatly suppressed with strong measures. Will they allow it to rise some then intermittently reimpose restrictions? Will they loosen too fast in their desire to reboot their economic engines and end up with it too hot too fast to be able to tamp back down before they are overwhelmed again?
Similar circumstance for other countries that have managed to actually suppress it, like Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea. Can they maintain suppression for as long as it takes to get a vaccine out? Do they maintain suppression for a shorter term while they build healthcare capacity? Do they gradually let it out letting the curve slowly build? Their COVID-19 stories are not done being told. What happens there from here? Guesses?
The playbook is simple: test so you understand the problem, flatten the curve so the health system can function, test for those with anti bodies that can go back out in public and to work, create a vaccine and vaccinate the world, then and only then do you have herd immunity.
I have personal knowledge of mega factories making consumer electronics in China. They are no where near back to “normal capacity”, and the smaller sub-suppliers are worse off. The mega factories are super paranoid about having even one case because then they have a quarantine and at least that production line shuts down. I’ve written this before, but the basics are:
non local resident workers have to quarantine 2 weeks outside of the factory
Then can enter the factory and live in the factory complex dorms. If they leave the factory complex, then need to requarantine outside.
temperatures are taken multiple times per day. there is a 2 hour deadline to notify CDC. Person with temperature gets taken to a CDC external center for testing
All shift workers go into quarantine in the dorm, the factory line gets disinfected, and needs an inspection before can reopen
the workers for each shift live in the same dorm floor, go together to eat in a group (spaced 2 meters apart)
It is more complicated than the above, but you get the idea.
It is in a factories best interest to never let covid inside. If it is inside the factory complex, then keep it compartmentalized so production can continue.
My ex colleague just flew into Shanghai from Taiwan, straight into 2 week quarantine at the airport, after those 2 weeks, then can move about the Shanghai area. I’m unclear if he can take private transport into the factory (which is outside of the shanghai area) or if he has to go thru another 2 week quarantine at the factory. And, for the foreseeable future, if he leaves China, he will have to go into 2 week quarantine in the new country. Now THAT is a painful business trip.
My view is China will loosen restrictions as much as practical, but keep a very tight lid on it while following the above playbook of testing. The Chinese citizenry have had over 2 months of being locked down, and are self policing relatives, friends, neighbors and strangers.
Assuming that seroprevalence studies show that 99% of the population is still susceptible …
Do you think China will keep up that level of control and restrictions until a vaccine is widely available and widely administered even if it is still a year or more away?
My WAG is that the government will try to find a balance and play some whack a mole on localized outbreaks. Travel will remain severely restricted either by individual decision or by government fiat. The large factory complexes will stay lock down and test up the wazoo. During SARS, IIRC factories were in serious lockdown mode for about 6 months, then only gradually opened up. My former bosses will keep the factories quarantined on a modular level, so an outbreak in building 1 3rd floor will not spread to building 20. This is doable but efficiency goes down. As long as the supply chain can feed the factory, the factory can keep producing. Keep in mind that the migrant labor force that provide most factory labor already live in the on site dorm, eat in cafeterias, and don’t leave the factory complex. Not much of a change.
It is also my WAG that the governments of China and India don’t really care about the masses in the countryside as long as food keeps flowing. To be a complete cynic of making lemons out of lemonade, one side effect of covid is probably improving the graying population issue facing China. It’s a view espoused by the vice governor of Texas…
One thing I noticed in Japan last year before the pandemic was that people who wore a mask were not half assed doing it like I see a lot of people doing here in SW Michigan. No noses sticking out so the could breath. I watched this one guy work all day thinking he would take a break from the mask, but no he even wore on his walk to the train station.
You just don’t see many with that commitment here unless they work in the medical field and have the 1000 yard stare.