sailor, I’m actually with you on this one. 
not sure if that article explains everything. I for one don’t think that allowing Taiwan independance would result in the CCP losing power in the Mainland. That’s pretty simplistic.
Meh.
ISTM that that he nearly concedes in the last paragraph that he’s not answering the question “does China have a realistic chance of invading Taiwan” but instead “what is China’s best chance.” And while the scenario he describes works better than an amphibious landing, I still think it’s pretty unlikely. The gaping hole in his idea is that he just assumes that China can plop three or four divisions in Taipei at will, and that’s absurd. You don’t get 30,000 riflemen, let alone armor, transport planes/choppers and fighter escorts ready for an invasion without spy satellites (or Taiwanese spies) knowing what you’re up to. You’re talking about huge amounts of supplies being gathered, jets being fueled, etc. for weeks, if not months in advance. Even if the US wasn’t interested in intervening directly, they’d surely know that something was up with, at minimum, a few days to spare and pass on the info. Taiwan would be highly unlikely to be caught completely napping; and in any event, their air force is clearly superior to China’s, and would seriously complicate an air assault.
Could China get boots on the ground? Probably. But that’s just a beachhead. You need to establish lines of supply for a steady stream of reinforcements, and those reinforcements would also need logistical preparations well ahead of time, which would further give away the element of surprise … which the initial assault is predicated on.
And while his points about Taiwan’s conscript military are true, there are also a lot of feircely independant types who’ll be fighting in defense of their homes, in urban/mountainous terrain. Seems a wash.
As far as the strategic importance of Taiwan’s location, I was addressing your suggestion that Taiwan’s location was a threat to China, not vice versa. But even as far as it goes, yes, a PRC-owned Taiwan could force Japanese and Korean shipping to take a longer way around … but why? At that point you’re talking about a China that wants to antagonize the entire developed world. I mean, Spain could cut off the Straits of Gibraltar … but why would they?
Finally, Yanmingshan is not some irreplaceable asset; and if China owning Taiwan is really “unthinkable” for Japan, ISTM that just means they’d help prevent it.
Sorry, I still can’t see how China could successfully take Taiwan anytime soon. If they’re acting rationally (a big “if”), they won’t try.
The loss of Yanmingshan
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Seconded. I just heard from a friend in Taiwan today for the first time in several months (he is neither Chinese nor American, BTW, if you think either of those might skew your responses, speaks Chinese, and has been living and working there for several years now). He seems to think the whole assassination attempt was a setup for the incumbent to gain sympathy votes.
Now my friend has political opinions on other issues which are rather far outside the mainstream on occasion, but he is rather politically involved and sophisticated, and is not a crackpot. I don’t pretend to have a clue about Taiwanese politics, but this just sounded nuts. Other opinions, anyone?
If I were a Taiwanese General, I’d be sweating the next year. While the Republic of China has maintained a strong defensive force, the truth is that the main thing keeping the People’s Republic from acting on its long stated goal of reunifying Taiwan is the threat of foreign (especially American) intervention.
With the United States currently involved militarily in Iraq and Afghanistan the cupboard is a little bare. Russia’ problems continue. The Republic of Korea is focused on the north. India isn’t going to turn its back on Pakistan. Japan is an economic not a military power. The other East Asian countires are going to stand up against China without major support. Europe is currently upset with one American intervention and isn’t likely to jump in to support another.
So if Beijing decided to launch an invasion it might just get away with it. It would be, as others wrote, an seriously under-supported operation by American standards. But even a half-assed invasion might succeed before a coaltion was put together and got troops on the ground in Taiwan.
Afterwords, there would be recriminations and bitter denunciations of China’s actions. But this wouldn’t overturn the reunification. China’s been in the doghouse of world opinion before and survived. Ten or twenty years might go by, but eventually other nations would figure what’s done is done and relations with China would be restored to their former status. After all, nobody’s boycotting China now over Tibet.
:rolleyes: It’s not a matter of “American standards.” Chinese Tanks run out of ammo too.
And it’s not a matter of a land war on Taiwan. One US carrier group supported by air and naval assets from Japan and Korea is all that’s needed.
There is no rational reason why China would actually try to invade Taiwan, especially as the odds against a successful invasion are pretty daunting even assuming lack of US involvement. There are plenty of rational reasons (from China’s POV) why China threatens to invade Taiwan. The issue is that the threat is taken at face value.
Little Nemo, I think you are way off base that the only thing standing between a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is the US. Chiang Kai-shek was a paranoid bastard of meglomaniac proportions, and he set the stage for Taiwan to defend itself without relying on outside help. Further as I think I wrote earlier, Taiwan has the bomb and they would use it on China if somehow despite all the odds China was able to invade.
I’m not going to be dogmatic here. I didn’t get briefings from the NSA before I wrote this. I was primarily describing a political scenario that made an invasion possible, so maybe I didn’t give enough attention to the military aspects. But I don’t think the scenario I described is impossible.
Chinese tanks may run out of ammo, but that’s not really what I’m talking about. An American military force has a huge logistic tail. While some of this is “luxury” a lot of it is military support that is useful but not necessary. It is possible for example to eliminate things like anti-aircraft units, mechanized transport units, communications units, anti-chemical units, and even armor units. Granted the light infantry corps you end up with would never be able to stand up against a NATO-type corps and it will take a lot more casualties than a better equipped unit, but it will be capable of fighting.
The Chinese are probably also willing to plan a battle despite casualty rates many countries would consider unacceptable. They might say it’s okay to lose 50% of the invasion force at sea as long as the other 50% make it ashore. And it’s okay to fight battles with 75% casualty rates as long as the other side loses in the end.
It may not be rational, but China has made it clear that it does want to bring Taiwan back into the fold. And the current policy is to work towards this goal by peaceful means, a military solution has never been ruled out.
And I believe one of the situations where China has said it would attack Taiwan was if Taiwan acquired nuclear weapons. No offense, but I’d like a cite for your statement that Taiwan has done so. My understanding is that Taiwan ended its nuclear program before it reached the weapon stage in the face of Chinese threats.
I’d like to add that the most important thing for the vast majority of Chinese is prosperity. Political views tend to be the result of heavy propaganda, brain-washing even. Occasionally they are engendered by economic changes, but overall my impression is that politics simply don’t matter that much. That in part explains why China has to come up with so much propaganda of such ridiculous excess and quality. Most Chinese would like to be left alone and earn a good living rather than worry about politics – rather a wise view, especially considering how hopeless, politically speaking, things in China are.
Economic integration is the long-term approach the Communist Party is taking with Taiwan, which will eventually render military issues moot by laying the most important foundations for reunification.
As for the Taiwanese, well they look at Hong Kong and the failures of One Country Two Systems and reunification of “the lost forlorn child to the motherland’s bosom”, and they see ample reason for concern. Things over here, politically speaking, are a joke that goes from bad to worse daily.
I suggest any one that cares runs a google search on taiwan +nuclear +weapons.
Here is just one quote:
From time to time, officials in Taiwan admit they once had a nuclear weapons program, but they have rarely discussed details. Instead, they enjoy the widespread perception that Taiwan is a “virtual proliferant”-a state that could make nuclear weapons quickly if the need should arise.
Question: given meglomanic Chiang Kai Shek, extremely high level of PhD’s per capita, 6 nuclear power plants, extremely large and belligerent neighbor threatening to invade, do you really think that Taiwan didn’t put together a nuclear bomb or bombs that could be assembled quickly?
Fine and good, but that means you would have to be sending positively epic numbers of troops over, who are arriving in nothing resembling military order (half of the officers being killed enroute) and without steady resupply/reinforcement. All modern armies have more tail than tooth; the more modern, the more tail-heavy. And China would not be able to keep that tail from being cut off.
A conscript army without officers, without resupply and taking horrendous casualties is going to do nothing but run for mountains.
I linked to this on the first page.
DOn’t get ahead of yourself. The majority does, according to polls, everywhere from the Kurds to the Shi’a. The people who are fighting us are a distinct minority even in their own camps.
The US could shut down every Chinese port within one week. We have a few nifty toys we’ve been working on. There very effective and brutal to a country like China. They’d be facing a total shutdown of their shipping, military and otherwise.
They don’t have to. They can easily sink any ship China sends at them from miles away. They have modern (not state of the art, but light years better than anything China has) submarines, and an air force that would enjoy huge advantages over China’s. China simply does not have a credible Navy and certainly not a credible ability to move troops and supplies.
They may not be using it, but their so-called Self Defense Force hides some pretty good hardware for $39.52 billion (FY02) compared to China’s $55.91 billion (FY02). Of course, that is puny compared to the US $276.7 billion (FY99 est.)!
[from CIA World Factbook]
Smiling Bandit: please indicate whom you are quoting whne you quote them. You are mixing up different people.
The last two quotes you have there are (I think) from me, and your responses are somewhat off the point.
The first was written in addressing Taiwan’s abilities *without * US help, and the second was written in regards to whether or not Taiwan could attack China, not vice versa.
I know. I was just saying is all. And lets face it: barring a huge, and I mean huge political change, the US would intervene in any attempt by China to take Taiwan by military force.
The second was just saying that they wouldn’t have to blockade every port. That would be pointless. But they could do billions upon billions in damage to Chinese ports without fear of effective reprisal.
Sorry I didn’t make that clear.