Long game. Think decades and not years. The economies have become more entwined since 2008 and not less.
I recently worked for 4 years for the largest Taiwanese contract manufacturer. Despite some mediocre attempts to off shore to Taiwan, India, Czech, Poland, Mexico and the US, China is the only game in town.
Another factor I think would be significant is that Taiwan is going to have a “Hail Hydra” experience in the first hour of the war of the battle when they discover that dozens of people in their military are actually Chinese sleeper agents. They’ll be inside the Taiwanese command structure, disrupting and sabotaging Taiwan’s response in the opening hours of the fighting when events are most urgent.
What brings on this conspiracy theory pray tell?
I don’t think they’re interested in destabilizing Taiwan. It’s not like Taiwan represents a strategic threat to them.
It’s more of a political/psychological issue. China fought a civil war and the communists mostly won. But the nationalists are still out there. It’s unfinished business for them. They won’t consider their victory to be complete until they have all of China - including Taiwan - visibly under their control.
It’s something I would do if I was a Chinese general in charge of making plans for an invasion of Taiwan. And if I can think of it, I assume some actual Chinese general has as well.
On distance.
A US Blackhawk attack and utility helicopter has a range of 362 miles and can carry 11 troops. A double rotor Chinook has a range of 400 miles and carry around 40 troops. Its not 100 its 140 miles to Taiwan.
And I’m sure the Chinese air bases are further than that.
So assuming China has a similar helicopters, thats a full tank of gas there and back. Now assuming they use Chinooks to ferry just 10,000 troops would require 250 Chinooks. Now they have to refuel and resupply 250 Chinooks plus the hundred or so Blackhawks needed plus all the jets and drones. Thats a heck of a lot of aircraft to handle very quickly. Now throw in the breakdowns and malfunctions, and the losses from enemy fire, and the fact those same helicopters will be returning with wounded, it would be a huge mess very quickly if they havent had lots of practice.
I mention helicopters because they are the fastest transport.
Oh and assuming the weather is good.
And I’m pretty sure those air bases with all that aviation fuel and ammunition sitting around will be as much of a target as the Japanese fleet was at Midway for say a US Stealth bomber or missile or maybe even a laser from a US satellite.
Then China would have to feed and resupply all those troops (3 B’s - beans, bullets, bandages). For Taiwan, they can just hand out rifles. Every man and woman on Taiwan would know that losing will mean serving time in a Chinese re-education camp and the loss of everything they have ever worked for. Now assuming the Chinese will start off with paratroopers, just imagine the reception they will get from 1,000 citizens with rifles.
How will the Chinese media deal with pictures of thousands of Chinese troops having their dead or captured faces showing up all over?
Not going to address most of that horseshit, but this is really ridiculous. There is basically zero relation between ‘Chincom’, which always was derogatory and CCP…WHICH EVEN THE CCPS OWN STATE MEDIA AND THEY THEMSELVES FUCKING USE. It’s generally used interchangeably with CPC, and they use it themselves.
I know you assume everyone is ignorant of this stuff, but come on…you aren’t even really trying here as it takes literally 5 seconds to Google CCP and something like Global Times and see for yourself. Or look at CCP statements and see they use this as well. :rolleyes:
And you’ve demonstrated that admirably by comparing modern precision guided missiles with WWI and WWII shelling. 
Thank you XT.
I had another question. It seems like the premise of this thread has been - CCP is asserting its power to outsiders I.e. Hongkong takeover, Indian-border dispute, Taiwan threats, etc.
What if all these activities are actually for domestic consumption? Do we have any reliable measure of the people of China’s confidence over the CCP ? What about Xi’s popularity within the CCP ? I know early on Xi declared himself as the lifelong leader, but is that widely accepted within the CCP ?
I personally see China as a school bully whose power is waning. To bolster their fear, a bully beats up the nearest weakest target and that’s what China has been doing.
I wonder what Japan is doing long term.
That’s going to be a tough question to nail down, though it’s a good question. My gut reaction based on anecdotal information I’ve seen or heard from my sons partners family is that a lot of people in China are upset with the CCP over a host of things, but definitely over this Covid-19 response. As for Hong Kong, that’s going to be more mixed…mainlanders, in general (again IMHO), don’t really sympathize as much with the protesters in Hong Kong, and probably don’t really care much about the current drama. After all, they are already under those CCP rules. As for Xi, again…that’s really subjective I think. The thing is, you can’t…CAN NOT…openly criticize Xi or the CCP. If you post things criticizing either your posts get deleted and your account might be banned instantly. Plus, your social credit score might be affected…or lots of other little annoying (or not just annoying) things might happen to you and your family. So the Chinese netizens have gotten really good at using codes when they criticize either the party or high ranking officials like Xi. Look at the Winnie the Pooh stuff. But also, look at the response.
China isn’t a bully…but the CCP definitely is. It’s why I always try and make the distinction between China, the Chinese people, and the CCP. It’s probably why some posters have an issue with my use of CCP (the REAL reason they do), is because they don’t want that distinction made. It’s easier to call someone out or things like racism if they aren’t focused on an evil mother fucking political party that is and has been destroying the people and the country, than if they are criticizing said evil mother fuckers.
As to Japan, I think we have been seeing them get more aggressive on their own defenses. They have increased their defense budgets and continue to do so. They have also been working really hard to bolster their alliances, and working a lot more with international groups for things like naval exercises. They have done a lot to change their constitution in fact so that they CAN be more able to participate in potential situations. Economically, they still seem to be flatlined, but I know they are one of the countries looking into ways to move critical manufacturing out of China and maybe to Vietnam or other south east Asian countries or even back home.
I agree that these expansion claims are mostly for domestic prestige. The CCP has consistently justified its existence by saying that it is a strong regime that can defend China while other other regimes, like the Nationalists or the Empire, were weak and were unable to stop other countries from exploiting China.
They can then justify internal repression by saying it’s necessary; the alternative is a divided country which will be vulnerable to foreign attacks.
But there’s a price. By making the claims that their repression is justifying because they’re making China stronger and other regimes were bad because they were weak and made China vulnerable, the CCP is also making an implied promise that they will produce results. If you set up the idea that weak regimes don’t deserve to be in power, you have to demonstrate that you are strong. You have to make territorial claims and then show you can achieve them to prove your superiority over rival political systems.
First, an order of magnitude larger than 90 million is 900 million and I can’t believe that. I think you mean an order of magnitude smaller.
But there is no dictatorship in which the people get to vote on going to war. If the head of the government, the party, and the military says go to war, war shall they go.
WHAT??? The Chinese government is not communist?
From WIKI: The CPC is the sole governing party within mainland China, permitting only eight other, subordinated parties to co-exist.
Why exactly are you offended on behalf of China? China isn’t reading this Dope message board.
Maybe not an order of magnitude, but the number of Chinese government employees that are not communist party members is large. The Chinese government is huge, the party is less than 5% of the population. The party is an “exclusive” sub-set, and not a “super-set”.
You are factually correct that the Chinese masses don’t get to vote on acts of war, and the same holds true for the US. Pot kettle black. The US congress ceded war powers to the President decades ago, and have failed miserably trying to get that back. The US people don’t get to vote on going to war. At best, elections after the fact become a sort of referendum. But last time I checked, Reagan and the Bush’s didn’t have a peoples vote before starting their invasions.
XP, this may be an issue between the Chinese and the English translation. I’ll grant you that the People’s Daily, which is the official mouthpiece of the government and the party, occasionally uses “CCP”. The most recent case on a search was in 2017. In Chinese, it is （国民党 and translated literally as the “Country’s People Party”）
Magiver - there is a choice of not being in a party. Or the party not accepting someone as a member. Most of the leadership are party members, but only a fraction of the rank and file. It might be a meaningless distinction, but the party isn’t the government.
Velocity - I am not offended on behalf of China. I would respectfully ask that people use proper, unloaded terms. Certainly my extended family has been fucked over by the Chinese Government more than probably anyone on these boards. I am not defending China, far from it, but there is soooooooooooooooo much to legitimately criticize China over, why bring up the commie canard or conspiracy bullshit?
I totally agree with everyone that posits this is Xi Jinping enflaming the nationalistic “China” card. It’s a dangerous game. Especially since his doppelganger is attempting to do the same thing in the US, and it is becoming a dick swinging contest between two nuclear powers.
I appreciate your answer but the CCP is made up of people. That statement alone lacks quantifiable numbers. But as a mental exercise it takes a great deal of people to do the bidding of the CCP. the bidding includes a a substantial infrastructure of people needed spy on every single citizen in the country. And when you look at the millions of Muslims rounded up for “re-education camps” you are looking at 1940 Germany. This is a seriously fucked up government and it take millions upon millions of people to make that happen. If it didn’t then the populous could take out Xi Jinping and restore order. Based on their actions the CCP is petrified of this happening.
When you land 1.5 million shells on a relatively small area precision is not a worry.
Also, good artillery is more accurate than you might think. They can’t send a shell through a particular window but they can certainly hit the building.
The Taiwan issue is complex for historical and political reasons. Taiwan was ceded to Japan in the same way that Hong Kong was forfeited to the UK and that other parts of China were taken in the late 19th and early 20th Centuries. The modern Chinese state emerged with a very strong sense of national sovereignty and identity, and part of that identity is built on correcting the wrongs of the past. “Taiwan” is a part of that right/wrong/fair calculus in Beijing’s mind.
But I think it’s incorrect to assume that China doesn’t see some strategic significance in Taiwan. Granted, it might be as much symbolic as militarily strategic, but China is doing what empires do, which is expanding its sphere of influence. China doesn’t want any weak links as it tries to establish its perimeter. This is part of what fuels the insistence on controlling what goes on in Hong Kong. China was fine with Hong Kong being “independent” in theory as long as Hong Kongers recognized that they were Chinese, not Hong Kongers. When HK residents asserted their identity, China decided enough was enough.
Taiwan is an even greater affront to China because it thinks of itself as an independent nation with its own armed self-defense forces and its own economic, legal, and political system. Taiwan represents an alternative to authoritarian China, and it produces ideas and information, which conflicts with Chinese attempts to control and manipulate information and truth. Taiwan, small though it may be, represents another democratic opponent in the region. But maybe the most significant reason to undermine Taiwan’s strength is to weaken the US role in the region.
All of this background aside, China knows that war is risky. If you want to attack an enemy like Taiwan’s government, it’s easier to soften them up first. China can accomplish that by pitting people against each other. There are people who want better trade and political relations with China, and those who don’t. China could offer Taiwan a hybrid form of oligarchal or kleptocratic democracy that would appeal to Taiwan’s economic elite. They could deliberately sow economic and political disruption. They could use information warfare. There are ways to undermine Taiwan’s core strength.
Well, China would most likely use transport ships, not helicopters. Capacity of thousands per ship versus dozens per helo. Although the helos are faster, as you mention.
Satellite lasers cannot generate enough power to inflict harm on an Earth target; that would require enormous electrical energy.
:smack:Boy that was an epic brain fart. Woke up this morning realizing I erroneously wrote the characters for the KMT aka Nationalist Party.
It should be （共产党， whichis typically translated as communist party, but literally is “all the production party.”