China's 'secret' 2020 plan for Taiwan. Thoughts?

So, for a while now, China has had an open secret that they plan to essentially bring Taiwan back into the fold by 2020 by whatever means possible. This includes military, but a lot of it has hinged on subversion of several of the Taiwanese political parties and politicians, their media, and their economy, as well as political pressure applied to any sort of international support as well as in various UN agencies that China, um, influences, shall we say.

I know most people don’t take this very seriously, but a poster in another thread said (to paraphrase as I don’t want to quote them here) basically that Taiwan is next on the list, with Hong Kong so obviously going down with the new CCP laws going into effect sometime soon. For debate, what do you think will happen? China (and by that I mean the CCP if it’s not clear) pretty obviously is unhappy about the re-election of Tsai Ing-wen. They are also very unhappy with the recent push by several countries for more inclusion of Taiwan in the UN and things like the WHO, as well as several recent arms sales as well as other high tech moving forward despite Beijing’s push to stop them. China has also gotten more aggressive lately in their military posture in the region.

On the other side, several countries, including several regional powers, ARE pushing back against the CCP. Several more are on the fence, which is actually an improvement from them being more on the CCPs side and willing to toe the line.

For debate, what do you think will happen? Will the CCP back down? CAN they back down? Or do you think they really aren’t serious about this in any case? If they don’t back down, what do you think will transpire? I’d say at this point, they aren’t going to meet their 2020 goals as stated by them years ago, but let’s say in the next 5 years what do you expect? More pressure on ‘international cooperation’ (with Chinese characteristics, meaning toe the line and do what Beijing says or else)? And actual military push to retake Taiwan through force of arms? Attempts at continuing to subvert Taiwanese political parties until they get the election results they want? Or nothing at all, this was all just for fun and laughs, the CCP never really meant it? I’m curious what (if anything) 'dopers think about this or where it’s going.

And while I would like to see the discussion stick to the actual topic of the thread, feel free to talk about the US and Trump and the Republics or Biden and the Democrats or whatever.

What would China do if the rest of the planet just said pound salt, we’re banning all imports from them and any third world pie they have their thumb in.

Ignore it?

Just not realistic. What would China do? Look at what they are doing with Australia for daring to ask for an international review of the Covid response as a good indication. Or what they have done to countries who haven’t toed the line with Beijing. Many countries are reliant on China and Chinese investment…the Belt and Road is just one part of this. China has and continues to have an extensive debt trap diplomacy system that has hooked not just poorer countries but even wealthier ones. We are talking about 10’s of billions of dollars of capital injection by China into these countries (with substantial kick backs, in many cases, for the rulers or elite). Then there is the reliance on Chinese exports…everything from electronics to medicine. Consider the dust up between the US and Huawei/CCP and how hard it’s been to get some countries on board with the threat. That’s because they are completely reliant on China for their 5G network, because of the price point/undercutting China does wrt subsidies and under the table deals to get their companies in the door.

So, it’s not happening. SOME countries, such as Australia, are pushing back, but many just can’t.

I haven’t heard of the 2020 theory but this year does provide China a unique opportunity to attack, due to Trump’s incompetence and the coronavirus pandemic’s severe effect on the United States and the rest of the world. Indeed, the pandemic window for an invasion may last another 2-3 years.

(Another date that is sometimes suggested is 2049, the hundredth anniversary of the CCP taking control of China, but it’s doubtful that they would be patient enough to wait another 29 years.)

I think Xi and the CCP have always been careful not to issue an explicit public deadline for Taiwan to be annexed because such a bluff runs the risk of being called, and also because it would backfire militarily; it would lead to an urgent rush by Taiwan to fortify the island all the more. It would take away the element of surprise.

From 2008-2016, there was a much more China-friendly administration in Taiwan (president Ma Ying-Jeou) and the belief was that carrots would work, not sticks. Trade between the two sides increased a lot, trade deals were signed, Xi and Ma met for a summit in Singapore, etc. But it did not make Taiwanese people more in favor of unification; quite the opposite. The anti-unification DPP surged back into power and dealt the KMT a landslide defeat in 2016 (and, later, 2020 as well, as you mentioned.)

Generational, each successive generation of Taiwanese is more anti-unification than the one that came before, because they grew up born in Taiwan with no perceived ties to China whatsoever. Faced with this reality, the CCP has likely given up on the carrot approach and is using sticks now. It’s not because sticks work (Chinese threats, such as when China fired missiles into Taiwanese waters in 1995-1996, almost always backfire,) but rather, for domestic consumption. Many people in China eat up that nationalist rhetoric.

Subverting Taiwanese political parties worked once, in 2018 (a lot of hacking, fake news, trolling by Chinese wumaos or trolls) but seems to have been a one-trick pony. It didn’t work in the general election a year later. And now, with the KMT’s aging-and-dying-out demographic, it looks like all the election interference in the world can’t help it.

I think we’ll see a war in the next few years.

In 2020? Not possible, I’m fairly sure. I don’t think Chinese sea-lift capacity is quite there yet even if they could guarantee air superiority over the strait. And even if the capacity existed for an initial push it would be a mighty tough ask for any invasion force. The chance for a catastrophic failure would be high and those are mighty high stakes to be gambling with if you’re any regime, let alone an authoritarian one with its own potential internal issues.

ETA: On re-reading I think even 2025 would be a tall order. It’s just a hard nut to crack for anyone.

China kinda has every nation by the balls. We ‘gotta have’ Nike’s and IPhones, can’t live without. They make most of the meds we all rely on, they own heaps of everyone’s national debt, they are/will be heavily invested in ports and railways in foreign lands, and they’re gonna deliver us all 5G so our smart devices can carry MORE data faster.

I think if it came down to it, they could take Taiwan, with little force, and most of the world would make heaps of noise but not much else. China will say ‘these are our internal affairs!’ Then, after long and course negotiations, promise whatever halfbreed system the West considers appropriate. Within five years they do as they please and entirely control the messaging and media in HK, PRC, Taiwan and Macau!

They are also pouring extraordinary amounts of money in places like Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia.

Totally agree, though they have certainly narrowed the gap, and if you believe all the hype about their kill chain and hypersonic carrier killer missiles they could push the US back far enough to hinder our efforts to support them via the fleet. Then there is the fact that, while on paper the PLA and various PL’somethings look good, their training and experience are pretty sucky. And the risk factor you are talking about is probably the biggest aspect, as the reality of the situation has never been a particular CCP strong suit.

But that’s the thing. The reality might make such an adventure chancy, and the world reaction might not be what the CCP thinks it might be (look at how they have botched diplomacy lately with their wolf warrior diplomats), but that doesn’t mean they might not THINK it’s different than that reality. Personally, I’m kind of with you here…I don’t think they can realistically do it, not without having the US and pretty much all the other regional powers on board with allowing it to happen…and even then, I’m not really sure they are militarily up for it. You probably know better than I do, but the PLA hasn’t exactly had a ton of experience in any sort of military operation. I think the last time they deployed for anything substantial was internally for the Tiananmen Square ‘protest’. Before that, I think it was their dust up with Vietnam. This would be a challenging nut even for the US to try a forced entry invasion of a country, even one as small and poorly armed as Taiwan. And then there is the fact that, recently, France, the US and I believe Canada sold or plans to sell them weapons and high tech for their military.

Taiwan isn’t poorly armed for its size (except with regards to submarines), it maintains a 320-fighter air force (soon to expand to 380 after the Trump-approved sale of F-16Vs) and a sizable navy that is supplemented by a coast guard that has ships designed to carry missiles for military purposes (its coast guard is unusually large; they’re planning to build 154 new ships within the next few years.) The problem is that new notions like asymmetric warfare have been slow to catch on in Taiwanese defense mindset, which is still heavily influenced by a 1960s KMT “old guard” mentality. Taiwan also often buys big items like Kidd-class destroyers and AWACS, fighters, etc. but fails to address equally pressing issues like spare parts or munitions (for instance, Taiwan has a fleet of over 140 Fighting Falcon fighters, but bought only around 320 AMRAAM missiles for them.)

I don’t think Canada has sold Taiwan any weapons (if it ever did, it must have been ages ago, like the 1950s), but France did sell Mirage fighters and Lafayette frigates. Nearly all other foreign arms are bought from the USA.

I’m surprised you haven’t heard of it. Just google it…you’ll get tons of articles about it, some going back a decade. The reason why China would push this now has to do with the Wests response to things like Tiananmen and how the CCP perceives our public and our institutions. This IS a theory btw (unlike the pretty much fact that China has a Taiwan 2020 plan)…it goes something like this. When China went all evil empire on the Tiananmen protesters, there was a bunch of blow back from the West…for a while. But within a few years, by the time of the Olympic games, we had pretty much forgiven and forgotten. Then China figured out they could push and, eventually, change the narrative. Tiananmen wasn’t what we thought! It was terrorists and agitators (western probably) trying to overthrow the government. And the government response was far lighter than alarmists made it out to be! So, if they push on Taiwan now, by the time your 2049 anniversary of the glorious revolution happens (when the CCP expects…and is probably right about this…the West and world leaders form all over to attend their shindig, cheering and clapping with enthusiasm), we will have forgotten everything, and China and the CCP will so shift the narrative that it will look like they were the good guy, and Taiwan was the bad guy for making the CCP put the boot down.

So, I agree that the CCP probably DOES think this is an optimal time to push on this. Obviously, they have made the same calculation with Hong Kong, though it’s much easier for them to make their wishes reality in Hong Kong than in Taiwan.

everything you said was pre-pandemic. When nations see China trying to throw it’s weight around there’s an impetus to stand together in opposition.

A lot of what they have is older or it’s 2nd or even 3rd tier systems. The US hasn’t been consistently selling them even the parts to maintain what they have, or giving them things like, oh, say modern MBT or even APCs, let along fighters or missiles. Taiwan WOULD buy them, it’s just that we haven’t been wanting to piss off the CCP…and no one else has either. Until fairly recently. There was another country besides the US and France selling them high tech (not necessarily direct weapons), and I thought it was Canada, but I didn’t bother looking it up. Maybe I’m misremembering…if so, apologies. I often just post based on my memory rather than looking stuff up because I feel it’s more spontaneous, plus when I’m wrong it challenges what I THINK I know and teaches me something. One of the things I still value about this board.

If China ever did attack Taiwan, it would most likely take the form of a blockade, not invasion. A blockade plays to all of China’s strengths (a much bigger navy and fleet of 70 submarines, along with foreign commercial reluctance to ship into a war zone) while an invasion works to all of China’s weaknesses (lack of sealift capacity, the difficulty of landing hundreds of thousands of amphib troops in an environment that is far more hostile to a landing force than D-Day back in the day, Taiwan would have a lot of sea mines, antishipping arms, and local reservists reinforcing at the point of landing, etc.) Plus, an invasion would likely inflict considerable damage on Taiwan, and the goal is to capture Taiwan as intact as possible.

No, not really. The Chinese are still ‘giving’ Belt and Road money, still building infrastructure, still building things like 5G networks. And many countries are still so reliant on them that they simply can’t come out and say anything against Beijing or the CCP. Sure, some countries have broken, to an extent, from toeing the line. But not many thus far.

I’m encouraged by the UK recently saying they would re-evaluate their 5G stance, and France basically going on the fence about it which is a marked change from the past. But many countries are still toeing the line, and many can’t do anything else…literally. They are completely beholden to the CCP and Chinese money or influence. I wish it wasn’t like that, but it’s the reality, virus or no virus.

Look at the response to Russia’s taking the Crimea. That let China know all that China needed to know.

American arms sold to Taiwan are sometimes based less off of what Taiwan needs but rather the need to keep a U.S. weapons production line going (for instance, Bush Sr. sold 150 fighters to Taiwan in 1992 because it was an election year and the sale would preserve four thousand jobs in Forth Worth; similarly, Lockheed Martin has needed steady sales at its new South Carolina F-16 factory and the Trump administration’s recent sale of 66 warplanes ensured that the plant would stay in business for a few more years.) Trump also sold a hundred(?) Abrams tanks to Taiwan last year (even though the big and heavy Abrams is ill-suited to Taiwanese terrain), perhaps because the Lima tank factory in Ohio was running low on work.

You might have been thinking the Netherlands, not Canada. In the 1980s, the Dutch sold Taiwan two submarines (which remain the only two combat-capable subs in the Taiwanese navy to this day.) But they rejected a subsequent Taiwanese request to purchase several more a few years later, due to pressure from China.

Unless China really does have their wonder weapon carrier killer missiles and a kill chain to make them work they couldn’t possible blockade Taiwan without the tacit approval of the US, Japan and Australia, at a minimum. Any attempt to actually enforce a blockade through force of arms would start at a minimum a conventional war with any or all of those. Then there is India, which isn’t really in the region, but I think that is starting to perceive itself as a wider player, and also has been under threat by China and might see this as an opportunity to start to assert itself more in the region. If China were to blockade Taiwan, China itself could be blockaded or seriously impeded in, say, the Malacca Strait. Unless, again, they got the tacit approval of pretty much all the other regional powers. If they did, then they wouldn’t need to settle for just a blockade, because their REAL strength is their conventional missile batteries, of which they have boatloads. They would simply batter Taiwan with convention missile and air strikes until it capitulated…if they had the tacit approval or at least forbearance of the other regional powers that is.

Right, but these are all recent developments. Look at Taiwan’s OOB sometime…a lot of their front line equipment is either old or is 2nd or 3rd tier of the type, meaning it’s far less capable. We simply haven’t consistently sold them much over the years, basically because we didn’t want to piss off the Chinese. Taiwan would buy more if we allowed it…and by ‘we’ I mean world wide. Recently, they have finally started to get more in the pipeline (like the Abrams you mentioned…though those are 2nd tier Abrams, like what we sell to Iraq), but it’s only just recently started to happen. Taiwan also does have the license to build some systems, and of course they have high tech of their own, but they are, in the end, a pretty small country.

That said, I don’t think China could take them easily, if at all, in a conventional military forced entry invasion. But two things there…first, I don’t know if the CCP agrees with my very well thought through reasoning (:p) and second, they probably won’t try that alone. They have been using their political and economic power to subvert Taiwan both locally and internationally, and THAT has been pretty effective. One has but to look at how Taiwan was ignored by the WHO or how countries that used to support Taiwan have changed their tune. Or even at how the US has not sold Taiwan weapons when we could have and when they wanted them because we didn’t want to piss off China or the CCP. Or how China has subverted one of the major parties in Taiwan to it’s cause. Even if they didn’t win this time, they COULD win down the road. While I don’t expect that, alone, to mean they invite China and the CCP in, it could be another straw added to the camels back.

Trade is a two-edged sword (or perhaps more accurately, a two-edged scabbard). Yes, China has a lot of trade with the rest of the world, and that makes the rest of the world reluctant to do anything that would cut that off, because we get a lot of benefit from that trade… but by the same token, China also gets a lot of benefit from that trade, and so they don’t want to do anything that would cut that off, either. And while they can get away with a lot without incurring trade sanctions, wielding their full military might against Taiwan would probably be too far.

What we might see is them doing some sabre-rattling and “international incidents” that they can play up for domestic consumption, but which won’t actually accomplish much (besides making Taiwan even more adamant against reunification). Which would be counterproductive if the goal were actually to re-take Taiwan, but that was never the goal. That’s just a means to the goal of saving face.

Another factor to consider is that a Taiwan war and Korean war may very well come hand in hand. North Korea isn’t exactly itching for war, but it would never have a better time than when the U.S. military is tied up in the Taiwan locale. Similarly, China would never have a better opportunity than when the U.S. military is busy fighting on the Korean peninsula.