You are thinking of China as a normal, western nation. This calculation leaves aside the more important factor for the CCP…the internal one that has to do with their own image and their own people. You are right…saving face IS the goal, as well as survival of the CCP. But that is threatened right now due to a host of factors. In addition, while most don’t take this thing about Taiwan seriously, thinking as you do that this is sabre rattling, internally it’s taken seriously, and it’s been a theme from the government to the people for a while.
The caveat here is…does the CCP actually think they can get away with it? Not can then…but do they THINK they can? Not could they win, but do they THINK they can win? I don’t know the actual answer to that, sadly, and I doubt even they do, or that it’s a monolithic answer across the board. Does Xi’s faction, and more importantly Xi THINK it? I think he does, which is frightening. The CCP and their military (which is basically not China’s military but the armed wing of the CCP) seems to endlessly be able to tell themselves that reality will be what they want, that events will play out as they want, and things will go the way they want.
I’m afraid a stupid miscalculation, as the CCP seems to do all the time, could bring about a war for this, and it might be, in the end, to save face, as you say. The very thing that would probably preclude most countries from bothering with such a stupid adventure might be the one that causes the crisis. Though I hope you are right, and this is all just sabre rattling, and that the CCP really thinks that their trade is worth the price of not going after Taiwan.
Personally, I always figured Taiwan had a few more years of safety. I felt they were still a few spots down on China’s to do list.
I thought China’s next big move would be the South China Sea; they’ve been working on that one and the international stakes are lower. I figured they would push on that one, other countries would back down, and they’d score a major diplomatic coup. Then use that new prestige to follow up with a push on their claims in the East China Sea. Only then, when they’ve got countries used to backing down would they go for the big prize of Taiwan.
It doesn’t make sense for China to go after Taiwan early. It’s the place where they have the weakest claim and are going to face the most resistance. They should go after the low hanging fruit first.
But maybe Xi feels there’s a window right now that won’t be there in five years. The world is distracted by Covid19 and Donald Trump’s in the White House. And while we tend to focus on the international picture, Xi’s focus is probably on domestic issues. So Xi may have decided now’s the time.
What is so magical about 2020? China is in for the long game. Economic entanglement will drive some form of political reunification. That said, the “50 years no change” for HK is out the window.
Sure, I mean, Xi Jinping doesn’t seem like the kinda guy to let a good crisis go to waste. BUT, if playing the long game, Taiwan is going deeper and deeper into China’s orbit and can’t separate the economies. Just 'cause Trump is a weenie, doesn’t mean China has to abandon the plan.
It is my pet conspiracy theory that Taiwan has the bomb. Suppose a tiny island nation with
-belligerent neighbor with a billion plus citizens
-fickle allies (US)
-had strong relations with fellow pariah state S Africa for decades
-massive number of US educated PhD’s in the sciences
-IIRC 6 nuclear power plants
-strong leaders
-disinformation campaigns that “Taiwan was on the path but whistle blowers stopped the programs”
Taiwan would have been insane not to put together enough nukes to take out Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xiamen, Qingdao and Beijing, and let Beijing know about it. That’s a hundred million people wiped off the map, and destroys China’s coastal economy. It’s a MAD strategy but jus’ sayin’
I agree with XT that this is projecting western values into a country where they don’t apply. In the United States and other western countries, we have a fundamental belief in things like capitalism and trade and private property and free markets. For us these are goals.
The Chinese regime doesn’t see it that way. For them, the economy is a tool. They allow some degree of capitalism and trade and private property and free markets to exist because they can see these things work and they make China a stronger country. But they’re means to an end, not an end in themselves.
For the communist regime, retaking Taiwan has always been a fundamental goal. They will use free trade and private enterprise if it helps them achieve their goal. But they will also abandon free trade and private property if that helps them achieve their goals.
This the year they’ve completed deployment of their East Wind missile system. In the past, China has always had to back down if things reached the point where the United States Navy was deployed off the Chinese coast. They always had to work within the restraint of not pushing the United States to that point.
That’s no longer the case. China now feels that if things reach the point of war with the United States, they can defeat the United States Navy in their own region. China can’t project naval power globally but they new feel that America can’t project its naval power around China.
China has always said that it would not allow Taiwan to develop nuclear weapons and has devoted a lot of its intelligence assets to watching Taiwan for signs of this. If Taiwan went ahead and built nuclear weapons anyway, they were talking a huge risk and would have had to work under incredible secrecy.
I’m not saying it’s impossible but I feel it’s more likely that any rumors of Taiwanese nuclear weapons originate in China in order to create a justification for military action against Taiwan. Such a policy would of course have an unfortunate historical precedent.
I think 2020 is a headline with nothing to back it. I’ve been a bystander in this drama for 40 years.
Taiwan would have developed the bomb in the 1970’s. Prolly when peanut head (Chiang Kai-shek) was still the “emperor” and certainly by the time his son butt head (Chiang Ching-kuo) took over. Long before mainland China had any kind of say in the matter.
The main warfighting contribution of the U.S. Navy in such a war would likely be via submarines, not aircraft carriers. SSNs such as Seawolf/688i/Virginia would or could make a crucial difference in sinking Chinese subs or surface combatants. American aircraft carrier battle groups would be vulnerable to Chinese DF-21D antiship ballistic missiles or SS-N-22 Moskit sea-skimmer missiles, as you point out, along with Chinese diesel subs. American submarines would be much harder to sink than carriers while also putting far fewer lives at stake (100 lives aboard a sub vs 4,000 aboard a carrier). This would then take East Wind out of the equation, although China might use them against Taiwanese surface combatants instead (although it would be hard because they are much smaller than carriers.) So it’s well likely the U.S. would never send carriers.
Taiwan has a muckraking tabloid-like media that gossips and speculates about everything under the sun. If a secretive hermit kingdom like North Korea couldn’t get nukes done secretly, there’s no way a raucous democracy like Taiwan could pull off such a nuclear arsenal in secret. They couldn’t even get their toes wet by starting such a program without it leaking to the press.
True, but with certain weaponry it doesn’t have to be top-notch. A mortar is a mortar, a howitzer is a howitzer; and for certain situations a B- weapon gets the job done like an A+ weapon. But yes, for the biggest items, such as antisubmarine aircraft, Taiwan was only able to buy P-3 Orion and not P-8 Poseidon. Taiwan also still has a very limited defense budget (for some reason, it remains at a mere 2.3% of GDP, which is far lower than one would expect for a nation facing the proportional threat it does.)
Of all potential sales, a sale of F-35B warplanes could make an immense difference (stealth + STOVL). But the U.S., as you mentioned, is reluctant to sell that due to pressure from Beijing, and also because of risk of espionage (Taiwan is heavily infiltrated by Chinese spies.) If the rest of the world were willing to sell, Taiwan would probably immediately buy subs like Germany’s Type 214 or Japan’s Soryu.
China could potentially Crimea-Crimea Taiwan. There are two small islands, Jinmen and Matsu, that belong to Taiwan but lie only a few miles offshore of China. They are heavily fortified, so China would still lose blood by taking them, but once in Chinese hands they would be impossible for Taiwan to retake. That would then deal Taiwan a PR blow - it couldn’t do anything about the situation and the international community might only apply a few sanctions in response.
They don’t need to defeat the USN. All they need to do is keep the USN away long enough that they can establish their military forces on the island. Once that’s done, they hope to present a fait accompli. Since getting rid of entrenched occupying forces is a lot harder than interdicting invading ones.
That’s been true since always and while their odds of doing that have bettered every year since 1996, I am not entirely sure they will be totally confident even now.
What makes me sure they don’t have any plans to do so right now, is that since, well USN superiority is like the RN superiority over the USN in the interwar period, an artifact, due to rival/fenemy choice, rather than inherent.
The Chinese shipbuilding capacity is about 15 million tonnes a year. The US-built something like 20 ships above 1000 tonnes last year (which is actually an increase over recent years) and while US does have a lot of dead capacity, it comes nowhere near Chinas.
If the Chinese wanted they could simply build themselves the present US Navy and then some in a couple of years. East Wind or no East Wind. While they have gone on a shipbuilding spree, its mostly small scale, designed to replace current vessels with more modern versions and creating some new capabilities in things like Amphibious Operations. They have not, yet, gone to building a fleet capable of challenging the USN.
For now, China isn’t looking to project the kind of power they need a first-class navy for. They don’t want to stage naval demonstrations around Cuba. They want to prevent the United States from staging naval demonstrations around Taiwan. A land-based missile system accomplishes that at less cost.
And a land-based missile system is less provocative. Yes, it’s aimed at the United States Navy but only if we send the navy into the region. East Wind missiles are not going to challenge the United States Navy around the world.
The problem with building up the world’s biggest navy is that the country that currently has the world’s biggest navy is going to notice. You’re automatically setting yourself up as a rival. And because it takes a few years to build a navy, you’re giving that country a window to stop you now before you’re able to fight back. That’s what happened to Germany a hundred years ago when it tried to overtake British naval superiority.
China’s odds of seizing and holding Taiwan before U.S. forces arrived is the longest of shots. Defense analyst Ian Easton explored this topic at length in one of his books two years ago: There are only a handful of beaches in Taiwan that are suitable for amphibious landing, harsh weather conditions in the Strait limit China to only two invasion time windows every year, there is tremendous difficulty in ferrying 500,000 or more troops, especially in a way that doesn’t give the defender advance notice and tip them off that it’s happening, and even once ashore, it is considerably easier for the defender to muster reinforcements to the invasion location than vice versa. In addition, modern anti-invasion weaponry such as antishipping missiles, smarter sea mines, etc. make large-scale amphibious invasions easier to defeat today than in 1944.
As for China building themselves the equivalent of the modern US Navy - they would probably bankrupt their defense budget if doing so. China has two diesel-powered ski jump carriers, the USN has eleven nuclear-powered catapult carriers. Each USN carrier also sails with its escort battle group, instead of alone. China’s submarine fleet is mostly diesel; the USN’s is entirely nuclear. China’s ballistic missile sub fleet is far smaller, it has only recently begun carrier fighter ops within a decade, whereas the USN has over 70 years of experience operating warplanes off of carriers. The USN has over 50 Aegis warships, IIRC, whereas China has only a few warships of similar capability.
The problem is carriers can be used in a diplomatic conflict in a way submarines can’t.
In past crises involving Taiwan, we never actually fought with China. We would just send our navy into the area and have it sail in the waters between China and Taiwan. The fact that we were showing China and the world that we have the capability of fighting a war in the area deterred the war from actually starting.
Submarines don’t convey that message. They say nothing until the war actually starts and they begin sinking ships. Submarines might be useful in a war but they aren’t useful in preventing a war.
It’s an interesting subject. China is gaining power and god damn they’re good at it. Just take a look at how much “China towns” there are in the world? They’re building empire without a war, they’re much cleverer than other countries. They provide a lot of investments for different countries, they stole technologies and don’t give a f**k and by this they’re acquiring massive, enormous influence (both economical and political) not only on 3rd world countries where they’re the most active, but at 1st world as well.
If someone doesn’t stop this red machine they’ll push back other nations in 10-15 years easily. That’s what I think about China.
Capability is one thing…but the willingness to use it is something else.
Does America today have the stomach to go to war over Taiwan?
I don’t think the American people would support another foreign war that doesn’t provide any direct benefit to the US.
Especially if going to war would cost the public where they feel it: , say, by making it difficult to buy the latest iPhone, or causing the shelves at Walmart to be half-empty.
I disagree. If China attacks Taiwan we have the stomach to punitively tariff China. In the world of political correctness the purchase of a new iphone would be frowned upon.
If Apple was smart they would be looking at building a factory in India.
There was some talk about shifting manufacturing to India, but China “Proactively” and recently started border skirmishes as an attempt to admonish and remind India of its power.
India supported Tibet and provided refuge to the Dalai Lama when the world looked the other way. Hope the same doesn’t happen with Taiwan.
A military takeover of Taiwan just is not in the cards.
Consider how much trouble both France and Germany had when considering invading England. That is 20(ish) miles away from each other at the closest point.
Taiwan is about 100(ish) miles from China at its closest point.
Now remember what the allies needed to do to invade France in WWII (Normandy).
These are colossal undertakings from a military standpoint and hugely difficult. And Taiwan has modern weapon systems the Germans never had in WWII. China does too but you still need to float people over on a boat, same as WWII.
I’m not saying it could never happen but I am saying a military occupation of Taiwan would be a massively difficult undertaking from China with a huge chance of failure even if the US did not intervene.
China has better means to their ends than an invasion.
Why, yes, a war with China would be a glorious thing–glorious!–if it weren’t for that pesky “lamestream” media constantly going on and on about “escalation” and “tactical nuclear weapons” and “intercontinental ballistic missiles” and “nuclear war” and “Oh, God, another American city was just turned to radioactive ash!” and all that defeatist poppycock. What a bunch of nattering nabobs of negativism!
I mean, it’s not like we wouldn’t win. I’m not saying we wouldn’t get our hair mussed, but we have WAY more nuclear weapons than they do!