What would happen if the U.S., the EU, etc. decided to recognize Taiwan as a separate country and re-admitted it to the UN? That they kicked Taiwan out in 1971 during Nixon’s rapprochement of mainland China ensured this would be the result someday.
China would go apeshit, obviously, and even consider it an act of war. But as a passive-aggressive move it would leave them in a difficult public relations mode with the world if they took military action because of it.
It’s funny, but I’d say the more likely response would be something like ‘we don’t want to risk our trade as well as war with China over Taiwan’, or ‘Taiwan was always part of China, so we shouldn’t interfere’ or something along those lines. It’s pretty obvious that Western media IS, to an extent, captured by China and willing to spin a Chinese narrative.
I am unsure what the US would do if China actually tried to invade and conquer China. You make it seem that only blood thirsty assholes would entertain defending a US ally, people who don’t have any idea what the ramifications are, and that we’d be stupid to do so for all the caricaturish reasons you give, but the reality is that there are good reasons that don’t have anything to do with glory seeking warmongers just wanting to profit or be hawks or something.
Personally, I hope it doesn’t come to war. That will entirely be on the CCP, even though you are railing against, I assume, war hawk conservative Trumpists or something along those lines. But it will be the CCP that will decide. Our only decision will be to go along, or to try and stop it. Assuming the CCP really is stupid enough to try, which was the actual point of this thread.
China isn’t likely to go to war because of something other nations did (recognize Taiwan.) If there is a war, it will either be because Taiwan declared independence (unlikely) or because China got tired of waiting and wanted to speed things up on annexing the island (more likely.) Indeed, there were actually a significant number of people in China who cheered Tsai Ing-Wen’s reelection (the anti-unification incumbent Taiwanese president) because they hoped it would lead to the CCP finally snapping and just “getting it over with” militarily.
As for the EU, United States and other nations recognizing Taiwan, it would probably lead to economic retaliation, but nothing more than that. Such recognition would imply a massive pro-Taiwan and anti-China shift in global opinion, so much so that there wouldn’t be much China could really do.
I am NOT saying that only blood thirsty assholes would entertain defending a U.S. ally. What’s happening in Hong Kong right now is deeply dismaying, an invasion of Taiwan would be even worse than that, and even with the current U.S. administration in power I am by no means on the side of the Chinese Communist Party, or opposed to the U.S. (and, one might hope, other countries) taking some actions–short of war but real actions-- to what’s going on in Hong Kong, or in response to China making some kind of threat against Taiwan.
Still, the statement I was responding to was somehow saying that it’s just that gosh-darned dumb old decadent Western media that would cause any anxiety about going to war against a country with nuclear weapons and missiles with the range to hit the United States. Which is kind of mind boggling.
Granted that China has a very large army, we must also remember that China is really enormously huge, so if China tried it, they’d probably wind up in the Mother of All Quagmires.
(Double post)
If China has already decided to go to war, whether people buy iPhone or such products or not would already be the least of its concerns. It would be a tiny and meaningless sanction/boycott in light of the much more massive risks China has already decided it’s willing to incur by going to war. Newsweek, for instance, once noted in a 2005 article that China could suffer 500,000 combat deaths in a Taiwan war. Any such war would also inflict great damage on China’s economy regardless, victorious or not. So things like IPhones or made in China products would be irrelevant.
I think he’s saying you can’t trust the Main Stream Media to accurately portray a glorious bloodless (for Americans) victory because it’s in the pocket of China.
For example, they would endlessly hype up the destruction of San Fransisco, inflating casualties by including illegal immigrants among the dead Americans.
No, I’m not saying that. I said what I wanted to say, and gave examples that I gave which aren’t anything like what you are saying here.
No idea where some of you get this stuff. ‘glorious bloodless (for Americans) victory’? What fantasy is this from? Where does this sort of horseshit even come from? Counting ‘illegal immigrants among the dead Americans’? WTF does this have to do with, well, anything?
I know you want to create a strawman for whatever reasons you have for that, but please don’t put me in your fantasy conversations.
Do you, or do you not believe that the MSM would actively and knowingly project pro-Chinese propaganda to undermine the American war effort?
I don’t see that as the likely loop for the media. As I said, it will be the standard MSM responses of ‘Taiwan isn’t our problem’, ‘it’s not worth the risk’ and ‘Taiwan has always been part of China, so this is an internal matter’. Obviously, the risk of confronting a nuclear armed enemy is vast and not to be overstated. But, sometimes you have to take a stand on something, even if there is risk. And by the US being strong it might avert something this bad. By the same token, by the things I am positing as responses it might encourage the CCP to do something stupid.
I agree with you IF they tried, it would be a huge quagmire for them. They really have no idea what it would entail, as they have almost zero practical military experience and most of their command structure is CCP, trained in ideology and fantasy about the glorious revolution and Mao than in actual solid military theory. And their soldiers are equally trained mostly in ideology, not actual combat. Taiwan, even without the US or anyone else, would be a tough nut to crack with the PLA…IMHO and all that. But the CCP isn’t always aware that reality differs from their own world view.
Thing is China has had virtually no military experience for the past almost 70 years. None of their weapons or training or supply systems have been tested. Taiwan is 120 miles offshore and air bases and ports much further. Thats alot of helicopters and heavy transports flying hundreds of miles round trip.
They would have no way to keep such a buildup secret or have the element of surprise. Taiwan and the whole world would know they are getting ready.
No, I dont see a military invasion but I do see alot of saber rattling.
The media doesn’t have a foreign policy, a diplomatic corps, or any armed forces. The media won’t have any say in a hypothetical conflict between China and Taiwan.
I think what we’re seeing here are Trump supporters who already know Trump will screw up if such a conflict occurs. So they’re pre-emptively looking for somebody else to blame. They’re saying the problem won’t be Trump screwing up. The problem will be the media reporting that Trump screwed up.
It’s a sad commentary on this administration that its supporters are already coming up with excuses for its failures in a situation that hasn’t even started yet.
It would be a difficult for anybody to recognize Taiwanese as a separate country when Taiwan is not claiming to be a separate country.
True, but the same applies to Taiwan. In fact, Taiwan is even less tested - it hasn’t fought in any combat since the 1950s, whereas China has at least had some limited fighting against India and Vietnam. Morale is also often lower in Taiwan’s military than in the PLA, although attitudes can change drastically in wartime (on 7 AM on 9/11, no Americans were thinking of war; five hours later all of that changed.)
Taiwan however has allowed supplies of important materials like its fuel reserve to run low of late (a Taipei Times report that it fell from an 180-day reserve down to just a few weeks.) Taiwan’s ability to muster reinforcements to the attack locality will be hampered by lack of spare parts, etc.
But yes, running what may be the world’s largest amphibious landing, even bigger than D-Day, would be an enormously complex undertaking for China.
Honestly, Russia and China are in about the best place they can be to do things the US would hate and get away with it.
It is only six(ish) months till the election. Unless they really think Trump will win re-election they are better off starting any adventures now. This is about as low ebb as the US will get (I hope).
The media gets paid, directly or indirectly, but the CCP. They, like the NBA or other organizations, toe the line unless they want to get slapped down or removed from Chinese markets. Saying they have no foreign policy or diplomatic corps is really disingenuous, unless you really don’t know or understand how the CCP manipulated Western corporations or political entities.
I’m unsure who you are aiming this Trump supporters trying to come up with excuses stuff at. Assuming it’s me, I’m once more in WTF mode, but I’m getting used to this as a standard tactic.
I’ve heard the D-Day comparison made before. I’ve had that conversation with XT for example. But I’m not convinced.
Operation Overlord was the way the allies invaded the European continent in 1944. That doesn’t mean it’s the only way an amphibious invasion can be conducted. There were and have been plenty of successful invasions that were done on a much smaller scale.
The most relevant example would be the invasion of Hainan. The Nationalists took control of Hainan along with Taiwan and several small islands when they fled the mainland. They had a sizable garrison on Hainan along with air and naval assets. But the Communists were able to invade and conquer the island in 1950. That pretty much proves that China can conduct a successful amphibious invasion against a defended island. And I don’t feel China is less capable in 2020 than it was in 1950.
The usual counter-argument is that Hainan shouldn’t count. It’s only ten miles away from the mainland and Taiwan is a hundred miles away. But I don’t see this as a serious issue. Transporting troops across ten miles of ocean is not that much different than transporting them across a hundred miles of ocean.
That post wasn’t directed at anything you wrote. It was a response to this:
God, I hate these bugs in the software.
Taiwan is not Europe in 1944. There are not a lot of places to land on an island versus the allies having most of Europe as a choice.
Taiwan is not a small island but it is not big either (about 1/4 the size of Florida or twice the size of New Jersey).
Which means the Chinese have few choices but a relatively few landing spots on the coast and then face the entire military and population because, frankly, they literally have nowhere else to go.
And, of course, as much as China has planned for something like this so too has Taiwan thought about it and how to repel such an invasion.
China sure has the people to spare, and they’d probably win if they went this way and the US did not intervene, but it would be a very massive and expensive effort.
China would really need the US to stay out to even start thinking about this.