One thing we can agree on. I’ll take it. 
yup
because it takes time and resourced to rebuild factories, and time and ouchy pushing [for the woman] to replace population, unless you just uproot the workers from mainland china and dump them onto the island. though that would work, 100 000 people, building supplies and one of those instant hospitals, repopulation and rebuilding in one step?
though how much of the tech factories on taiwan came from the US, and how much training came from US schools?
Do you really feel that China will be deterred from invading Taiwan because of the damage such an invasion would cause Taiwan?
I don’t see that as a factor that the Chinese government will give much weight to. More generally, I don’t see damage to the enemy as a factor most governments give much weight to when considering the possibility of war.
I agree that China would like to capture Taiwan as intact as possible. But I think they will look for a quick resolution so they can present the world with a fait accompli before international opposition can get organized. A blockade strategy wouldn’t accomplish that.
I mentioned earlier that I feel China would use internal subversion as part of an attack and I feel that would work with the goal of achieving a quick resolution while reducing damage to Taiwan. China would use internal subversion because it would be effective in achieving their goal. But it would give them the added bonus of being able to claim they were acting humanely.
Why do you think internal subversion?
I first lived in Taiwan in 1982 and have visited multiple times per year ever since then at a minimum. I have never ever once encountered a person born in Taiwan that was sympathetic much less aching for China to take over Taiwan. The people in Taiwan are very clear that China plays the long game, and words are meaningless. As witness China encroaching if not nullifying Hong Kong’s basic law
I simply cannot comprehend where this comes 5th column idea comes from?
The bulk of Taiwan’s military and police organizations are known to still strongly lean KMT, since they were immersed in KMT ideology for decades. That “old guard” culture is still there. Nonetheless, even the bluest KMT personnel would not be likely to turn traitor in a war if it weren’t perceived as a conflict of Taiwan’s own causing.
Internal pro-China subversion could have been somewhat feasible during a extremely unpopular DPP president like Chen in 2000-2008 (especially after his highly controversial 2004 reelection) but is much harder to imagine in today’s era where the DPP is steadily drowning out the KMT in popular support. There might be a few diehard Blues who decide to resort to drastic treasonous measures to save their dying dream of unification when they see how electorally futile their cause is, but not many.
Velocity - that’s a good take.
KMT - absolutely not. KMT and Communist Party are mortal enemies. (Although almost all of the original combatants are long in the grave.)
DPP - absolutely not. They are for Taiwan independence, and most don’t want anything to do with China.
The 10-20% of the population that work in China are there to make a living. They have no desire to trade a self-governed island for colonial overlords. As a foreigner in China making decent money, they may enjoy it and have a lot of benefits. The vast majority of these economic migrant folks never settle in China, and can’t wait for their trips back home to Taiwan.
Where is the disaffected 5th column?
The under educated, underclass Taiwanese speaking locals? They hold no meaningful positions. And they certainly don’t want non-Taiwanese speaking outsiders messing with their lives. Ditto for the Hakka speakers. The mountain people maybe are disaffected, but even if they wanted Mainland overlords, they generally do not hold meaningful positions that would abet a takeover.
There’s no meaningful group that welcomes a Mainland takeover. They don’t exist.
I know the plural of anecdotes is not “data,” but from what I see on Facebook, I seriously doubt this is still the case. I’ve seen KMT blue folks in Taiwan fiercely criticizing the Hong Kong protesters, calling them “cockroaches.” I’ve seen KMT posters claiming the CIA is behind the Hong Kong resistance, claiming that the DPP and Tsai stole the most recent election (in which Tsai won by 18 percent!) due to massive hacking/fraud, posting “Taiwan for mainland China” memes, etc.
30-60 years ago, sure, mortal enemies, but now there is a lot of cozying up of it.
I just feel it’s such an obvious plan. I would be astonished if China hasn’t done it.
I don’t feel that their Taiwanese sleeper agents are necessarily PRC-sympathizers. They’re probably subverted through the more normal methods such as blackmail and bribes.
Pretty much every country has people who are willing to betray their country to a foreign power. Why should Taiwan be the exception? Especially when Taiwan has a powerful country which has openly declared it has a policy of targeting Taiwan.
Quartz may not be the best of sources, but one official has claimed that there are 5,000 Chinese spies in Taiwan. No word on how many sleeper agents or saboteurs.
Basically this. There is little doubt that the KMT has cozied up to the main land, and this is nothing new. It was pretty obvious in the latest election that the KMT candidate was pro-Beijing and that this worked both ways. Sure, in the past the KMT and the CCP were mortal enemies, but that isn’t the reality today. I think one angle missing here is the financial one. The CCP has poured lots of money into businesses in Taiwan. In addition, a lot of mainland Chinese are IN Taiwan…and I doubt all of them are just citizens there for fun. A lot of Chinese mainland businesses have ties to many Taiwan businesses, and basically EVERY large mainland business has the CCP hook in it. And those hooks extend to people simply wanting to do business with mainland China. This goes way beyond just Taiwanese businesses, as we can see this dynamic in US businesses and business leaders, as well as businesses in basically every other country that either wants to or does business with mainland China. The CCP tries, and basically succeeds in most cases with controlling or pulling their strings to get them to do what it wants. And the KMT is definitely playing to Beijing’s strings.
This doesn’t mean that the KMT wants the CCP to take over. But they are certainly willing to take CCP money and use the fact that the CCP is totally opposed to the current ‘secessionist government’ and prefers (and gave much better treatment too) the previous KMT government. Recall when the CCP got the WHO to kick Taiwan out as an observer, and when they were allowing them in as an indication of this. Or when Beijing really started to put the screws to other countries to stop supporting Taiwan. Or when they really started this push for putting pressure on various companies to stop treating Taiwan as an almost separate country, and started insisting their web sites and information says stuff like ‘Taiwan province of China’. Interestingly, it was when the KMT lost the election to the current president and her party, strangely enough…
Don’t confuse the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Remember, the KMT still claim sovereignty over Outer Mongolia and Tuva.
The KMT would love nothing more to be as powerful as Xi Jin-ping and rule over all of Greater China. Of course they don’t support the HK protesters because if they could, they would take over HK as well.
Much as the extremists in the KMT want to emulate the success of the the current Chinese rulers, they sure as hell don’t want to be under their boot.
The KMT are whores advancing their own agenda. Taking commie money is like icing on the cake. That said, the KMT have no desire to be lapdogs of Beijing. And, the KMT, better than just about anyone, knows Beijing will take over if given the chance and the KMT will be SOL.
You should learn more about the KMT and you’ll find they were as ruthless as the Chinese communists. Generalissimo Cash My Check spent WW II fighting the communists instead of fighting the Japanese. Read Stillwell. The Xi’an Incident. Fun fact, the KMT lifted martial law in only 1987. The DPP, and any other opposition party was illegal until 1988. It’s only 30 years ago, which isn’t very long. (I lived in Taiwan for about 2 years during the martial law phase.)
You assume ignorance, even though I said basically the same thing wrt the KMT wanting the CCP to take over. I also lived in Taiwan, and have friends who live in Taiwan…and I’m well aware that the KMT, especially early days but into the 80’s were ruthless. AS ruthless as the CCP? No…they weren’t and certainly aren’t today. But ruthless and bloodthirsty enough, to be sure. Which hasn’t got anything to do with what we were discussing, except you trying to craft the narrative that I don’t know what they were, don’t know much about them, and so my opinion means less than yours on this.
Ok, we’re saying pretty much the same thing XT. I’ll admit to confusing somewhat with Velocity.
We call all agree that the Chinese Government would love to have a 5th column to sabotage Taiwan. That said, for the life of me, I can’t see a disaffected group that would want to help Beijing take over Taiwan. If you disagree, then what group out there would be the potential candidates? I just don’t see it.
I really respect your experiences and direct knowledge of both Taiwan and China.
But my Taiwanese friends who do support KMT do so strictly for the economic benefit to Taiwan and they don’t believe that the KMT has any delusions to reestablishing KMT rule over anything past Chinese Taipei anymore.
They don’t see how Taiwan could challenge China or how it could regain anything.
Back to taking over, I agree with your that it seems difficult and not necessary. I know many people here whose husbands work full time in China, people whose companies deal mostly with China and people whose work depends Chinese tourists. I had a class of two businessmen who had to strop because one of the men spends half the month now in China.
I agree, there is no point of a military conquest while the economic one is working so well.
The KMT (or the current government of Taiwan) should just accept that they are on the losing side of the war, acknowledge that the CCP is the legitimate government of the mainland, and not declare independence. Instead, they should grant independence.
Bwahahhahahaha, I like the way you think.
Can you be more specific about your allegation here?
It seem to me that the crackdown on Hong Kong has a much more chilling effect on the Taiwanese population that all the screws than all the measures you listed here. People are annoyed by the “Taiwan province of China” but the shitstorm after Hong Kong protests as an order of magnitude (or even greater) than those tiny things.
I’ll grant you, that would be thinking outside the box.
But it wouldn’t work. The problem is the Republic of China can’t grant independence to the mainland because the mainland isn’t seeking independence.