This forecaster says it’s when, not if:
Eh, the weird idea that Internet access is somehow necessary or sufficient for revolutions is kind of silly. People were revolting long before the internet, and in China my understanding is the internet blocks are fairly easily circumnavigated, and really just keeps the unmotivated from seeing blocked sites, and yet Chinese people don’t really show any signs of revolt.
We can argue whether or not a Chinese spring is likely in the near future, but I don’t think Wales’s arguments that it will happen if Chinese people can just get on Wikipedia is particularly convincing.
Long before, in the case of the Chinese. Their history is just jam-packed with rebellions and civil wars. The present Chinese government knows this, that’s probably why they’re so hard on Falun Gong, there are many instances in Chinese history – some of them very recent by Chinese standards (19th Century) – of a religious movement turning into a political rebellion.
I’m skeptical.
The article mentions, but does not seem to take fully into account, the lessons of Tiananmen Square. Which is that the Chinese government will apply whatever force is necessary to stop such an uprising. And they can apply a LOT of force.
China had their Spring back in 1989. It didn’t take. I suspect that in the not to distant future China will make progress towards democracy but I see it transitioning gradually rather than with a revolution.
But very few cases of civil disobedience. The Chinese seem to go from “harmony” directly to “kill everyone”, with nothing in between.
Its when ever we decide it will be their spring.
Declan
There are remarkably few cases of civil disobedience in history, even in the West. Most times and places, your rulers would rather kill you than negotiate and couldn’t be made to feel guilty over it.
Whatchoo talkin’ about, Chang? The Arabs didn’t need the U.S. to get them started this year, and only the Libyans needed much help to finish.
This is one of the least convincing articles I’ve ever read. The Western media continues to, time and time again, write random stuff about China without any apparent concern for reality. China is like a mirror for journalists, where they just see whatever the heck it is that they want to see.
The internet blocks are stupefyingly easy to get around. There are even handy cheap little VPN services that provide restriction-free internet for a tiny monthly fee. While the Chinese equivalent of “dude with an AOL email address” might not know how to get around it, most college students and anyone even vaguely technical can do it in a snap. And that’s fine. The Chinese government doesn’t really imagine it can suppress all information. There will always be a small percentage of people who will put two and two together, and China doesn’t have the gumption to really worry about them beyond getting draconian on the leaders and occasionally giving people a hard time.
What the internet blocks do do, spectacularly well, is make it just difficult enough that most people don’t bother. It makes things just a bit more inconvenient than most people have the intellectual curiosity to bother with. That’s all it takes to keep something out of the general dialog and out of most people’s everyday consciousness. It’s remarkably effective and quite insidious.
I think China harbors a lot more instability than anyone gives it credit to, and I see no sign at all that the “slow fade into democracy” is more than a wet dream some American pundit made up . There is certainly no sign of that situation moving forward- so far, political freedoms have only been granted with the express purpose of building the power of the regime, not with the intention of eventually weakening it.
China has a TON of civil disobedience. There are strikes and protests every day. They just don’t get reported on.
Nitpick: You don’t mean a mirror, you mean an inkblot.
Then, do they make any difference?
Agreed. Anyone who was hoping, fifteen years ago, that globalization and a more open market would lead to democracy and human rights in China would have to be disappointed at this point. Credible organizations that rank countries based on economic freedom, press freedom, democracy, transparency, and so forth all agree in still ranking China near the back of the pack.
China is building up huge income disparities, and, worse, a large class of moderately to very wealthy people with little or no political power. It looks like a recipe for instability to me.
The elite better watch out! What if the Reds come back!? :eek:
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Can anyone think of a way a “Chinese Spring” could achieve genuine regime change without civil war?
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Can anyone think of a way a civil war in China has a low body count?
Hong Kong-based professor says that China is on the verge of bankruptcy:
I think a severe economic contraction could push China towards the tipping point. Not saying it will, just saying it’s a good aggravating factor.