Is the PRC government right to fear Falun Gong?

Great Debates
1

The Chinese government has actively suppressed the Falun Gong religion since 1998. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falun_Gong#Government_crackdown) I would not try to defend that, but I think it is possible to understand it. From a Western perspective, suppressing a religion is one of the most tyrannical things a government can do. Suppressing political sedition, OTOH, can sometimes be a legitimate action even for a liberal democracy; there are multiple instances in American history (not all of which were later ruled unconstitutional). But the PRC leaders might not be inclined to draw that distinction. They are Chinese. They have very long historical memories – and Chinese history of full of religious movements that evolved into political rebellions. For example:

The Yellow Turban Rebellion, 184 AD – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Turban_Rebellion

The White Lotus Rebellion, 1796-1804 – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Lotus_Rebellion

The Taiping Rebellion, 1851-1864 (one of the bloodiest civil wars in Chinese history) – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiping_Rebellion

The Boxer Rebellion, 1899-1901 (mainly cultural/nationalistic rebellion with religious elements) – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boxer_Rebellion

Makes me wonder: Is Falun Gong potentially dangerous to Communist rule in China? Or is the government just being silly, worrying about a harmless band of Tai-Chi-practicing mystics?

2

Both positions are accurate. The Falun Gong is not going to take down the PRC, not now and probably not ever.

Nevertheless, they are an existential threat to the PRC, which must grind them down or perish.

Here’s something you have to understand: the PRC, Communist or not, is largely a collection or self-absorbed power-hungry incometents. They are increasingly despised outright by the Chinese. More dangerously, the Chinese simply don’t respect the PRC anymore. They have kan to le; seen through things.

The Falun Gong is a living symbol of this. It’s very existence is a gigantic neon sign telling China that the PRC sucks. And the PRC cannot tolerate that. Especially seeing as civil disobedience is on the rise. In the semi-totalitarian country of China, there were over 87,000 protests and riots in 2005.

China is an authoritarian country with an authority crisis.

3

I don’t think the leadership in China are incompetents as this most populous of countries is actually modernizing better than anyone ever predicted. Grant you the leadership may also be incredibly lucky, but they can’t be incompetent.

Not sure if I agree with the broad despised outright by the Chinese. More like ignored outright by the Chinese. Certainly, there is no vestige left of the liberation era legitimacy. But the faustian bargain in effect is “you let use get rich, and we let you rule.”

With all due respect, Falun Gong are a buncha nutjob whacko messiaic wierdos. I had some interaction with them and similar orgs in Hong Kong.

The government only cares so much as it’s an organization they can not control.

4

I did not say they were especially incompetant. All governments are incompetent. In order to maintain rule, they must appeal in some other way than competency. All competency is temporary and often the result of luck.

Same point, different words. But it looks like fewer and fewer Chinese are willing to make that bargain, and the leadership more and more uneasy about it themselves.

No question about that. I agree completely.

My prediction is that within the next century, China will undergo some kind fo revolution. It may not be democratic. It may very well be even more authortarian. But China cannot continue to limp through as it is now. This could potentially even break it up, with the north and south going their own ways.

5

Just curious as to why you say this? I don’t get that impression at all in my interactions here in China. Admitedly, I don’t get out into the deep countryside as much as I used to, and most of my interaction is with Fortune 500 MNC’s and their employees. Well, my Chinese wife and her friends, family and my daughter’s classmates parents.

Century is a long time :slight_smile: Why would you say a North-South breakup? If China fragments, it’s going to really fragment. The divide is much more linguistic, and coastal inland. North South is a factor but one of many and IMHO not a major factor.

6

What do they believe, exactly? And do they have any political agenda, overt or implied?

7

But, except in historically non-Han regions such as Tibet, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, are there really any active secessionist or autonomist movements? Are the people of Sichuan discontented with rule from Beijing (as distinct from being discontented with the Communist Party)?

8

Admittedly, I don’t consider myself a master of Cinese history and public opinion. I’ve never been there, and my experiences are solely through the eyes of others and the news.

But what I see, right or wrong, is not pretty, and is headed in one direction. Classically speaking, most of the revolutions in the last 200 years come not from the oppressed-and-destitute, but from those who are obtained more freedom and prosperity. The ground-down peasant doesn’t revolt. He or she doesn’t have enough learning and connections. But the middle-class has the means - education and burgening power - and the motive - the remaining oppression. The French Revolution, the Bolsheviks, Mao: their soldiers often came from the peasantry, but the initial leaders came from the middle class. Today, we see the same phenomenon in Islamic terrorism. The people who are most dangerous, who carry out terror attacks, are usually middle-class and are quite well-off by middle eastern standards.

A century is indeed a long time. But China is not a fast country, and things have not gotten nearly bad enough there. It might indeed go to pieces. Even so, I predict a north-south alignment taking place. It has historical, agricultural, and cultural origins. In the modern era, it has financial and technological ones, too. Beijing may be the center of power, but it is the coastal South China which has the moey and know-how.

Not yet, but the seeds are there and growing. Violent confrontations, virtually unthinkable 20 years ago, are growing increasingly common. The leadership is following a schizophreic and ham-fisted policy which seems to bounce back and forth between laxity and severity. As we have seen in some other countries, this betrays serious weakness.

Moreover, I understand ethnic minorities (of which there are an immense number in the South and usually hidden under the quasi-pretension of Han ascendance) are increasingly disenchanted with Beijing. While not nationalistic in the way we might think of, they have a distinct identity which could very easily turn into an populist ethnic movement.

9

But, the population of China is 92% Han. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_ethnic_groups

10

Take a lesson directly from Mao and from Chinese history. Chinese revolution came directly from the peasants and not the cities.

With all due respect, reading some sensationalistic news reports and extrapolating what will happen in China is likely not a good indicator.

Secondly, China is a very fast country. Things change here amazingly fast, especially in this century. Don’t understand that and you’ll be one of the globalization flat world losers.

China has never had a North China split. Well, never say never as Chinese history is long. Traditionally, china is split up into regions. If you really wanted to see a modern split, it would be HK/Guangdong delta, Taiwan/Fujian, Yangzi River Valley (Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou), tianjian/Beijing/Dalian, and who knows about the rest.

Minority seccessionists have largely been diluted. Han Chinese immigration has changed the demographics dramatically.

11

[QUOTE=China Guy]
Take a lesson directly from Mao and from Chinese history. Chinese revolution came directly from the peasants and not the cities.

[quote]

Check your history again. It most certainly did not come directly from the peasants. The initial leadership who started the revolution was not from the peasantry, IIRC; they were well-educated urbanites.

No, it’s not. Neither is America. While both run through economics and fads quickly, the political systems of both countries tend to change slowly, over decades and not years.

Just which history books have you been reading? China has split North-South at least three times! (Granted, one of those was short-lived and two others were do to foreign influence.)

This might be true.

12

The leadership that survived the Long March, faught the Japanese, defeated the Nationalists and then ruled China were most certainly made up of peasantry and rural people. Whilst the beginning of the Communist movement in China may have been in conjunction with the Soviets/Borodin and in Shanghai with educated urbanites, it most certainly did not stay that way. In fact, the communists in Shanghai were slaughtered almost en masse one night.

The big Soviets were all in the countryside and made no headway in the big cities. IIRC, Mao led the Jiangxi Soviet. Deng Xiaoping spent his time on the Cambodian border.

Please note that the Chinese economy has doubled - more than twice, since Tiananmen. This is a pace unprecedented in the world. One would be missing something critical if one thought that the political system has not changed dramatically during that time. And it has. The old style neighborhood watch is largely dismantled across the nation. The household registration system does not control like it used to. There are between 50-200 million migrant workers away from their homelands. There are elections at the local level. All communes have been disbanded. The iron rice bowl broken. Do you really think there has been no significant political change in the past 15 years?

China has never had a significant north south split in the area known as modern china. You’ve got stuff like the Northern Song and Southern Song dynasties, but that is hardly north-south deliniation. The main areas throughout Chinese history have been the Yellow river valley in the Xi-an area, the Yangzi river valley ZheJiang/Jiangsu, Sichuan. the three kingdoms areas. And these have split and reformed numerous times. These areas are what, maybe 10-20% of China’s current landmass? Does not include The Beijing/Tianjin/Shandong area, Guangdong, Fujian or the outlying provinces.

13

So, China Guy, what do you know about Falun Gong? Does it have a political agenda?

14

IMHO, falun gong are a bunch of nutjobs. It’s a messanic cult where one needs to give complete faith in the leader (and support with money and even ultimate sacrifice of your life for the team).

I don’t have personal experience with any members beyond seeing protests outside of Chinese consulates in HK and the US.

About 10 years ago my wife in Hong Kong thru friends started hanging out with a similar group. Started out as an “exercise” group doing tai chi kinda exercises and breathing. Then rapidly graduated into having to make donations and your basic cult type brainwashing BS. Needless to say, my wife ended her involvement rather quickly.

My understanding of falun is they do the whole cult thing in spades. Calling them a religion is quite a stretch.

15

But do they have a political agenda? Is there any good reason for the government to class them as potential rebels?

16

PRC government is naturally suspicious of any organization it can not “control” in some fashion or another. Thus the Chinese Catholic Church, which does not answer to Rome, is kosher, while any Catholic’s that do answer to the Pope are in an illegal organization. That’s the main issue.

17

nitpick: Not all religions are cults, but all cults are religions. (Except, perhaps, for expressly non-religious cults like the political followers of Lyndon LaRouche.)