Joe Buck thinks so. I don’t know. He won’t have the flashy, all-important (to the writers, anyway) milestone numbers. No 3000 hits, no 500 HRs. He will have a career BA over .300 and he’s already over 1500 RBI. He only won one MVP award.
His top 3 comps on baseball reference are 1. Gary Sheffield 2. Jeff Bagwell 3. Vlad Guerrero. Sheff’s got 500 HRs, so I think Bagwell is actually the best comp for HOF consideration and he didn’t get in on the first ballot. Chipper does, however, have the reputation of remaining clean throughout the steroid era. I think he’ll get in, but I don’t know about first ballot.
When you add in the fact that he was a third baseman for the great majority of his career, I think he does get in on the first ballot. There are a lot of slugging outfielders, but few third baseman (and switch-hitters) who produced like Chipper has over such a long period. Of course there’s also the question of who else is on the ballot, but when you combine his offensive output, defensive position and the fact that he was a cornerstone of a very successful team, I think he gets in in his first year. He should.
Yeah, first ballot no-doubter for me. He has the longevity, the position, the switch-hitter thing, and the clean image. I think the voters will be hungry to put him in.
The fact that Bagwell didn’t get in on the first ballot is a disgrace, IMO.
While he won’t reach milestone numbers like 3,000 hits and 500 homers, it’s not like those are required for enshrinement. And he’s close anyway - in addition to the .300 average the OP mentioned, he’ll finish with around 2,700 hits and 470 homers.
The switch-hitting and the other guys on the ballot are good points. But, Bagwell has been on two fairly weak ballots and still didn’t get in.
I agree Chipper probably *should *be a first ballot guy, but you know how the writers like to make a point. If you don’t have their magical offensive numbers, they like to see you wait a little bit.
Adding to what Marley said about him being a 3rd baseman - the top RBI men at 3rd base ever are George Brett and Mike Schmidt - tied with 1595. Chipper Jones today has 1594.
He’ll be the top RBI man at 3rd base when he retires.
That’s because some people feel he was a steroid user, and perhaps because they’re not sure how to compare his stats (clean or not) to those of other sluggers from the same period. I think the voters are probably being unfair to Bagwell, but Chipper doesn’t have to deal with that- there’s never been a rumored steroid connection, he’s a more versatile player, and he continued playing for longer after that period ended. While he’s diminished with age he has been very effective at times in the last few seasons.
Also, while Bagwell was great, he doesn’t clearly stand heads and shoulders over the competition at his position the way Jones does. Unless you think of Alex Rodriguez as a third baseman (fair enough), the closest guy is Scott Rolen, who isn’t close. Bagwell has Frank Thomas as an exact contemporary (down to the same birthday) and other guys like Thome and McGwire at around the same time.
Ok, I’m coming around…gaining faith in the writers, perhaps.
I could live with that, although I don’t know if Jones would be the guy I’d pin it on. Nobody has ever received 100% of the votes. I mean, 20 people didn’t vote for Ted Williams.
Well, exactly. They should have. The vote should have been 100% for Williams, and Willie Mays, and Tom Seaver, and Carl Yastrzemski, and Mike Schmidt, and Steve Carlton, and Bob Gibson, and Hank Aaron. That it wasn’t is a damn joke, and continuing to have fools refuse to vote for true all-time greats so they can write stupid columns about it is just silly.
I’ll be honest, I hate the way they select Hall of Famers. I don’t have a better system in my pocket, but the BBWAA system is a joke, where a guy like Willie Mays isn’t a unanimous choice and another guy will go from 25% votes to getting elected six years later for what reason nobody can really explain.
The way I see it, Chipper Jones either is a Hall of Famer or he isn’t. If he is, you vote Yes, and that’s that. If he’s not, you vote No. You don’t vote “I’ll say no this year but yes next year because of this here stupid reason.” And while I will grant it could be the case that a person might think this year so-and-so isn’t qualified, but is then convinced through argumentation and evidence that really the guy is greater than previously believed, anyone who, right now, thinks Chipper Jones isn’t a Hall of Famer doesn’t know anything about baseball.
I’d like to have faith in the writers, but a certain small yet significant percentage of the votes will probably be lost for anyone in this era, simply from general suspicion (some voters have indeed come out and said that nobody from this era is getting their votes). On top of that the math of a crowded ballot will also take some away as well. I’m guessing 1st ballot at 68%, and he gets in on the 2nd with 81% or so.
RickJay, I’d love to see the number of chances on the HOF ballot go down to 3. Won’t ever happen, though. The writers are in love with what little power they have in the sport.
I’d say Chipper Jones is a sure-thing HOFer, but I just would not be shocked to see him wait a year or so.
I do think there’s value in letting players stay on the ballot as we gain distance from their era, but after 8 or 10 or 15 tries it starts to seem absurd.
No seasons above 8 WAR, not great defensively, but he does have very good career stats. He is below all the other first-ballot 3B HoFers (Boggs, Schmidt, Brett, Robinson) in my book but he probably does deserve to get in on the first ballot.
Looking at the WAR graphs for the players you mention, Stringer, I’d have to agree with your conclusion. He’s a bit behind those lights. I wouldn’t be outraged if he waited until year two (nor shocked considering the panty-wadding going on in the BBWAA).
We already have the 5 year waiting period after retirement. It’s comical to watch a guy like Jime Rice or Bert Blylevin creep up in voting % year after year after year. We know he’s gonna make it, just vote him in already!