Choclate...our supply is running out?

[DeathAngel]

Is it true we are processing so much choclate that soon we won’t have enough left to grow more and we won’t have any left??? Or is this just a rumor???

[Joe_Random]

@DeathAngel

Is it true we are processing so much choclate that soon we won’t have enough left to grow more and we won’t have any left???

There is no way (barring sudden, catastrophic crop failure) that this would happen with any crop being farmed today. To say that we “won’t have enough left to grow more” assumes that a farmer somewhere would willingly decide to put themselves in a situation where they cold not plant for the next season, and that’s just not going to happen.

[Duckster]

<nitpick>

We do not “grow chocolate.” Cacao trees supply the seeds that will be processed into chocolate.

</nitpick>
In 1999, the USDA released this press release …

Potential Chocolate Shortage May Be Foiled by Beneficial Fungi

WASHINGTON, Oct. 25–U.S. Department of Agriculture scientists are working with a team of international experts to save the chocolate crop from three pathogenic fungi, Agricultural Research Service Administrator Floyd Horn said today. Chocolate is produced from the beans of the tropical cacao tree, Theobroma cacao.

“Three major fungal diseases can make cacao beans inedible or unusable,” said Horn. “But scientists at USDA’s Agricultural Research Service have identified and are testing beneficial fungi that control the bad fungi.” The international effort coordinated by ARS includes the American Cocoa Research Institute, McLean, Va.; M&M Mars, Inc., Hackettstown, N.J.; and several international research groups. ARS is the chief research agency of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Fungal diseases–black pod rot, frosty pod rot and witches’ broom–have caused severe yield losses to the cacao bean crop, which totaled almost 3 million tons in 1999. “The diseases cause economic hardship for 5 to 6 million small farmers in South America, Africa and Asia,” Horn said. “Plus, few people realize that transforming cacao beans into chocolate is among the largest industries in support of U.S. agriculture.”

For every dollar of U.S. cacao imports, about $1.50 in other agricultural commodities is used to make chocolate confections, according to the American Cocoa Research Institute.

"The fungus problem threatens the long-term health of the world’s chocolate industry. But the research provides hope for small cacao farmers–and environmentalists concerned about the loss of cacao agroforests," Horn said.

Source: http://www.ars.usda.gov/is/pr/1999/991025.htm

The fact remains this press release came out more than four years ago. I am unable to find a followup by any corporate media. Shall we assume the dire warning were just that?

However, I found this …

Unless a way is found to cultivate cacao more efficiently, researchers predict a global shortfall of cacao beans in five to ten years.

The big problem is that the pollination rate of cacao plants is extremely low on traditional plantations, which are also plagued by diseases, expensive to run, and consume precious rain forest. Unresponsive to commercial cultivation methods, the cacao plant is closely tied to the tropical rain forest and the pollinators, herbivores, seed-dispersing species, and fungi that live there. This natural habitat is fertile, provides an inherent ecological “resistance” to disease, and is also home to the midges that are the cacao tree’s sole pollinator.

Source: http://sciencebulletins.amnh.org/biobulletin/biobulletin/story670.html

Then again …

Reports of a chocolate shortage and a resulting increase in the price of chocolate simply are not true, according to the Chocolate Manufacturers Association (CMA) based in McLean, VA. Chocolate lovers can continue to enjoy their favorite food and disregard these rumors - there are plenty of chocolate bars, boxed chocolates and other goodies to go around.

“There simply is no shortage,” said Susan Smith, vice president of Public Affairs for CMA. “Despite these rumors, chocolate is and will continue to be a delicious, available and affordable food for everyone.”

Source: 屋根に遮熱塗料を塗ったら電気代が節約できました！

Your turn to use Google. The above cites came from 90 seconds of searching. You’re new here - repeat this mantra ten times: Google is my friend!

Now if you had asked about the cork shortage …

BTW, welcome to the SDMB.

[Mr.Moto]

Use a little common sense here.

If we were really running out, do you think you could still get a Hershey bar for less than a buck?

Look at what mere rumors of oil shortages did to the gas prices.

I think you can eat your chocolate without fear.

[DeathAngel]

@Duckster

<nitpick>

We do not “grow chocolate.” Cacao trees supply the seeds that will be processed into chocolate.

</nitpick>
In 1999, the USDA released this press release …
Source: Potential Chocolate Shortage May Be Foiled by Beneficial Fungi : USDA ARS

The fact remains this press release came out more than four years ago. I am unable to find a followup by any corporate media. Shall we assume the dire warning were just that?

However, I found this … Source: http://sciencebulletins.amnh.org/biobulletin/biobulletin/story670.html

Then again … Source: 屋根に遮熱塗料を塗ったら電気代が節約できました！

Your turn to use Google. The above cites came from 90 seconds of searching. You’re new here - repeat this mantra ten times: Google is my friend!

Now if you had asked about the cork shortage …

BTW, welcome to the SDMB.

And you believe everything you read on the Internet? Easier and faster and more trustworthy to post here and see who supplies what info.

[DeathAngel]

@Mr. Moto

Use a little common sense here.

If we were really running out, do you think you could still get a Hershey bar for less than a buck?

Look at what mere rumors of oil shortages did to the gas prices.

I think you can eat your chocolate without fear.

Long term…I’m looking at the long term.

[KP]

More precisely: every farmer everywhere would have to decide to sell all theur stock of cocoa beans and kill all domestic and wild cocoa plants. (cocoa is a perennial tree and does not need to be replanted every year, unlike annuals such as wheat or corn)

It’s a standard practicie in cocoa farming to save beans from the best plants because they are obviously most productive in current local conditions. Further, wild cocoa plants are a valued “gene bank” in the cocoa industry. In the 1930’s, botanists trekked through the rain forest to find cocoa resistant to witches’ broom, a fungal disease then threatening the domestic trees. Moreover, the cocoa seed dies within a few weeks of ripening, so the only way to preserve a variety of domestic cocoa strains is to maintain a large stock of trees.

Further, if we use cocoa prices as a gauge of supply vs. demand, we see that prices can vary wildly from year to year, but they are only 40-50% what they were in the cocoa crunch of the late 70s - and supplies are far larger today than they were then. In fact, [url=http://www.icco.org/questions/worldprod.htm]production has generally been growing since at least 1990, and in 2002/03 it was predicted that production (~3 million tons) would exceed demand by about 30,000 tons.

[RussellM]

DeathAngel

Easier and faster and more trustworthy to post here and see who supplies what
info

You’re going to be really popular around here. You’re generally expected to make at least a token effort before asking everyone else to do things for you.

[Mangetout]

@KP

Further, if we use cocoa prices as a gauge of supply vs. demand, we see that prices can vary wildly from year to year, but they are only 40-50% what they were in the cocoa crunch of the late 70s - and supplies are far larger today than they were then. In fact, [url=http://www.icco.org/questions/worldprod.htm]production has generally been growing since at least 1990, and in 2002/03 it was predicted that production (~3 million tons) would exceed demand by about 30,000 tons.

Mmmmmm… Cocoa Crunch…

[Colibri]

The fungal disease problem is a continuing and serious long-term concern for the chocolate industry. M&M Mars has recently funded extensive research here in Panama (I work with the researchers involved) looking into aspects of this.

[aerodave]

@DeathAngel

And you believe everything you read on the Internet? Easier and faster and more trustworthy to post here and see who supplies what info.

Where do you think the information you get from here is going to come from?