There were many events during the run-up to the outbreak of the Civil War that contributed to its length and bloodiness. And there are tons of what-ifs regarding, e.g., the dispatch wrapping the cigars at Gettysburg. But there are two that I’ve never seen explored. I’d like to outline them, then let the military history buffs attack the question of how they would have affected the war. Take them singly or together, as you see fit.
In 1846, in response to noises from Alexandria, whose slave market was undergoing decline because of fears about abolitionists outlawing slavery, or at least the slave trade, in DC, the Virginia legislature called for retrocession of the part of DC that had been given by Virginia. In July 1846, “Alexandria County” was returned to Virginia (and later renamed Arlington County to avoid confusion with the City of Alexandria.
Hypothetical #1: This does not happen; “Alexandria” (modern Arlington) remains in DC. Now, why this affects the Civil War disproportionately: Robert E. Lee was widely considered the premier tactician of the time. He was in fact offered command of the Union Army but declined, as his antebellum patriotism was to his state, Virginia, not to the USA (which would have been not quite anachronistic, but only slowly growing before the Civil War, which spurred it immensely). BUT: the Lee plantation, Mrs. Lee’s dowry (now Arlington National Cemetery), was in the District, not Virginia prior to 1846. Where would Lee’s loyalty then be if his home is still in DC when the war begins? And how much impact would that have on the war’s campaigns?
Hypothetical #2: Through “secession winter” and on into April, North Carolina remained in the Union, the state legislature being nearly equally divided but with a slight Unionist majority. When Lincoln called publicly for each state to send troops to end the rebellion, one faction in the NC legislature flipped rather dramatically from Unionist to Secessionst, being very unwilling to send troops to fight other Southerners. Suppose instead that Lincoln is persuaded to send messages privately to Northern governors requesting them to call up troops, with no public call. North Carolina remains precariously Unionist at least for the 1861 campaigns.
What might be the results? Would they shorten the war and reduce the carnage?
For #1, it seems unlikely Lee’s decision would have changed based on the position of his home in DC. Lee was the son of a Virginia govenor, his family had strong roots in the state, and he had already spent much of his career traveling around the US. It’s likely he would define his “state citizenship” based on his family connections and influence within a state rather than his technical place of residence.
I have less of an opinion on #2, but even if the NC legislature was truly divided at the start of the war, I have a feeling they would quickly (if reluctantly) still side with the Confederacy–they wouldn’t even be “precariously” Unionist.
Somehow I think Lee rationalizes joining the Confederacy by saying that the District of Columbia was not allowed to vote on secession and that although it may be part of DC, his home is still Virginia. If he had stayed loyal to the union? The North wins the war, or at least the Eastern campaign by mid 1862…When McClellan should have won the peninsular campaign if he wasn’t so timid.
I don’t know how Lincoln gets the state governors to mobilize their militia’s by keeping quiet. He had remained quiet during the states leaving, speaking on in platitudes and ignored last ditch compromise efforts such as John Crittenden’s. By Fort Sumter he pretty much had to do something since war fever in the north was very high, Actually he should have listened to his long time rival Stephen Douglas who thought he response was correct except Douglas wanted 200,000 troops instead of 75,000. If North Carolina had stayed in? Would have shortened the war but not a whole lot. I imagine the local secessionists would have tried to form its own stae like West Virginia did.
This is a difficult question because it comes does so much to psychology. In many cases, there was rather little enthusiasm for the Confederate cause once the initial choice was made, and North Carolina eyed the Confederacy with the fish-eye throughout the entire war. They had more deserters than any other southern state, IIRC, and given how far south they were a surprising number of NoCo’s joined the Union army. Many southerners didn’t want a Confederacy at all, but felt driven along by events whether they willed it or no. Few expected a real war.
Had there been some delay, possibly affecting a few others states, the entire rebellion might have petered out in embarassment.
The issue with North Carolina was self-preservation. Unlike the border states, it would have been suicidal for North Carolina to stay in the Union surrounded by the CSA. It best it would have been invaded and a “Reformed” state government would declare it part of the CSA similar to how West Virginia became part of the Union.
Well, the same call for troops that sent North Carolina out of the Union also sent Virginia out. Unionist sentiment was stronger in North Carolina than Virginia, but it was pretty strong in Virginia too. So, if Lincoln doesn’t call for troops, does Virginia go?
As to the Lee question, Arlington was Lee’s father in law’s, and Lee never really had any strong feelings for the place, and while he grew up in Alexandria, his family was from Westmorland County. I don’t think Northern Virginia staying in would have made much of a difference.
A case can be made that in a civil war, it’s better for someone to be openly your enemy than weakly and hesitantly your ally. N. Carolina may have fallen into this slot.
W/O Lee Davis would have sent an army to end Grant’s siege of Vicksburg. W/O Lee there would have been no Gettysburg. W/O Lee’s brilliance against Grant in front of Richmond and Petersburg after the war was already lost Lee would be remembered as what he was, just another General who made some bad decisions.