Barack Obama won Washington State, Nebraska, Louisiana, and the USVI tonight. Woo-hoo!
Back to Earth now…how much real effect does this have on his chances? The talking heads are saying even if he wins Maine, Virginia, Maryland and DC, if Hillary just wins Ohio and Texas Obama will not have enough delegates to pull away. I know this actually depends on how the delegates are ultimately distributed after the tabulation, but can the psychological impact of Obama’s momentum coming out of these primaries cause enough of a switch from Clinton to Obama to pull wins for him in those two states?
I’m trying to keep my head out of the clouds here.
Hillary’s probably going to get Ohio. I just have a gut feeling on that one. But maybe Texas will go his way. He seems to be doing better in the South than Hillary.
My sense is that both Ohio and Texas are must-wins for Hillary. If Obama can take either, then that will be the most decisive blow that could be struck. It wouldn’t be a mathematically decisive blow, but it would shift the momentum so heavily to him that the superdelegates would follow.
As has been pointed out in all the threads, this contest definitely comes down to two things: how will the superdelegates vote, and will MI and FL be included in some way. The rest is just details to be used to convince the superdelegates on electability and to convince the DNC that it can’t rightly include MI and FL without new caucuses.
I live in New Jersey, but I’m going to his rally in Baltimore on Monday. Folks are saying you really need to see the man in person to get the full impact and power of his speech. I can’t wait! Jeez, I think I’m turning into **Phlosphr ** or **Shayna **
I agree, it’ll probably come down to the super delegates. I hope not, but that’s how it seems to me right now. It looks like Obama has to win either Ohio or Texas, no matter what else he wins in the interim, if only to get the supers to wake up and switch over.
Well, you’ll do better than I did. Although I’m from Providence, I currently reside in Albany, NY… and as a registered republican living in NY, I was suppose to switch to the dem party before the last election if I wanted to vote in the dem primaries. I didn’t realize that…
I walked in to a room to grab something and the tv was turned to his speech in Virginia. I’m really apathetic but for some reason I just had to listen to the entire thing. And now that the speech is over I just donated $50 to his campaign.
That’s so weird. When I voted here in Illinois, I walked in and they told me to sign my name on a piece of paper, then write “Republican”, “Democratic”, or “Independent”. Whichever I wrote on the paper dictated which ballot I would receive. Easy as that.
As an Obama fan, I don’t think anyone, including myself, seriously gave Barack a chance in hell of getting this far, even just a month or so ago.
I am beginning to believe that, short of some major gaff, Obama might just actually pull it off and become the Democratic nominee. He certainly has the momentum, he has the backing of some influential people, and he continues to get lots of money from people who can least afford it.
I don’t dislike Hillary, but to be honest - I really think Obama has caught the attention and hearts of the voters like few have in recent elections. Hell, they are even claiming there is such a thing as Republicans who like Obama!
Most Democrats I know actually like Hillary, but I think they are passionate about Obama. That just might make the difference.
Show up and see him. Listen to his speeches on his website - did I mention show up and see him?
I have not seen one crowd for Hill that was bigger or more energized than an Obama crowd. He lit’em’up in Virginia, Idaho, Washington everywhere he goes he’s lighting the fires under peoples feet. Like I’ve said before and I’ll say it again, I’ve not been to a polling center ever with a smile on my face like I did last Tuesday.
Interesting side note. My mother who has been an active feminist for decades began to change her tune this summer looking deeper and deeper into the Obama campaign. When women like Cora Weiss, Margo Jefferson, Barbara Weinstein, Kate Michelman started turning their attention towards Obama she [my mother] began turning hers. These are not just run of the mill feminists, these are the movers and shakers of national women’s movements. Heavy hitters, the big-time.
Obama’s appeal transcends gender lines, color lines, religious lines and appeals to a broad range of people a united people. If Hillary was appealing to a larger demographic in the same way as Obama, she would be the clear front-runner. But she’s not.
Obama might well take this candidacy - he’s organizing efforts all over Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania - people are showing up in DROVES to work for him. If he can rally these last few large states it’s going to be an Obama democratic ticket, and an Obama Presidency.
He may not move a mountain in his first few years as President. He may not be the prodigal son, but he has succeeded in united a LARGE group of this nation behind him. Imagine voting for a president knowing he’s got such widespread appeal and is an intelligent social force as well.
The psychological impact of this across a country represents not only a change in who comes out to vote [i.e. younger generations] but a paradigm shift in the collective thinking of a large mass of people. The benefit of that is too great to comprehend just yet - but I assure you, look into the presidency of Barrak Obama from 20 years into the future and I guarantee you’d see a national shift of some sort as yet to be described.
Texas is a bit like Florida in the sense that it’s technically in the South, but parts of it are a whole 'nuther thing. It’s heavily populated by Hispanics and Latinos who typically go Hillary’s way.
That’s what I’m saying! Obama is way more likely to win over republicans and independents than hillary is. There’s no way in hell I would ever vote for hillary.
Obama is aware of this…
In his speech last night, he addressed many issues and obstacles that he has to overcome…his speech was somewhat long-winded but never the less, awesome and inspiring. He is so fully aware of what he has to do to win over specific segments of the population. He was addressing and reaching out to them… Very good!!
My arch conservative lunch buddies were all agog at me the other day when I said “Hillary is not a liberal.” I had to explain to them that centrist government control is not liberal. I also had to explain that there really aren’t that many liberals around now days. There are certainly none who have a ghost of a chance of getting nominated. Our extreme liberals are centrists in most other countries.
Obama isn’t a liberal either, by the way. However, now that the Republicans have pretty much decided to run their hawk centrist, it leaves me with a dilemma. If the Democrats nominate a hawk centrist, who do I vote for? I have never voted for a Republican Presidential Candidate in my life. However, I doubt that I can convince myself that Hillary Clinton is a superior choice over John McCain.
Fact is that while I am sure He won’t get us out of Iraq any time soon, neither will she. And I am not sure that she is less likely to get us into another war, when that choice comes up. On the issue of trust, I have none, so it ends up not being a factor. I don’t think the Government can control the economy, so that ends up a non factor as well. On immigration, no one is even pretending to look at the actual causes, so, hey, another non starter.
It comes down to character. He has some, Her, I am not too sure.
Obama would get my vote against McCain. If Hillary does, it is entirely because I fear the machine that the Republican Party has become, not because I support her.
Because of a few sound bites? I mean, Regan gave great speeches and lots of people listened, but most people here probably would be the first to criticize him. I’m not saying Obama’s a great guy, but to vote for someone just on the basis of giving a nice speech seems a bit foolhardy to me.
NO! Because he inspires people, including Republicans like RandMcnally. Some of us are sick to death of the divisive, “you’re either with us or against us” mentality that’s been permeating Washington for years. And when a politician can draw people in from both sides of the aisle to support him in his effort to unify this nation, it speaks volumes about what will be his ability to engender the same conciliatory environment in the halls of Capitol Hill.
