Bimodal distribution, not continuous. The mean of the two modes is meaningless.
I know. I know stats very well, better than some of the poseurs here who are still missing the part about what values are possible. Electoral votes are integers - discrete values, not continuous, and not even all discrete values are possible. So treating the result as a continuous value is not just misleading, it’s wrong. I’m astounded that that needs explanation.
The true “average” value of all Silver’s Monte Carlo runs would be the median total electoral votes resulting from the runs in each of the 51 *individual *elections (mathematically *not *related) we’ll have in November. Johnson’s reality-rectified “expected value” is 0.
It always has been - except among the few who get so fascinated by the numbers that they lose sight of the distinction between data and noise, and between useful and useless procedures, and omit (sometimes purposefully) the reality checks that are so vital to comprehension. That syndrome is common in baseball too, but has more recently spread to election polls - and you can blame Silver as much as anyone for it.
Clinton is well ahead on points, but it would still be nice to see her land a knockout punch and get it over with. But the risk of missing even slightly is just too high, and she’s as cautious a politician as there is, so look for her to just run out the clock while Trumph the Insult Comic Dog continues to disqualify himself.
The guy who did Trump’s taxes in the 90s, including the year Trump “brilliantly” claimed the nearly $1B loss, told NBC news that Trump didn’t understand the tax code at all. Jack Mitnick said Trump didn’t have the desire or patience to grasp the details of the tax code. Instead, he left the details to his tax team and just cared about the bottom line. To me, that seems perfectly reasonable. I wouldn’t expect the CEO of a big company to be an expert in the minutiae of the tax code. The CEO would delegate that to the right experts. But then, most CEOs are not the polymaths that Trump clearly is.
Mitnick went on to say that he objected to the tax code on philosophical grounds but applied it to his clients’ full advantage.
Sorry for the wonky link. Couldn’t get a better one from my phone.
I’ve heard that fantasy several times on these boards. What I wonder is what people think that knockout punch would be? What do they think Team Clinton could do that they are not doing? What are they holding themselves back from?
The race is basically back to its longterm average. What do you think they could do to change it in a lasting way? What should they do other than staying on the offense for the rest of the game?
Maybe, but it’s just guessing. She still might win in a landslide. And we don’t know if another candidate would have been as effective at getting under Trump’s skin.
I think a lot of Clinton’s “issues” are the accumulated effect of a quater-century of hysterical fearmongering from the right, but I agree that Biden would be farther ahead. He’d be smiling that happy shark smile of his and turning on the Middle Class Joe charm and just crushing Trump.
At least, I think so. But, this election has proven to me that I don’t really understand politics or the American electorate at all, so what do I know?
I think the American electorate isn’t too hard to understand, but we’re entering the age of the celebrity in politics. Not too long ago, the candidate who won the primary was usually the party’s choice, and if the party didn’t have a clear choice it was possible for relative unknowns to emerge by touting their record and plans. Now it’s just turning into a reality show where whoever is most famous going into the race is heavily favored regardless of qualifications or party connections. The next race could be Kanye West vs. Rush Limbaugh.
We’re also putting too much of a premium on “excitement” and how well a candidate performs, rather than how well a candidate actually does their job. “Yeah, he may have been a UN rep, a governor, a Secretary of Energy, and extremely knowledgeable, but geez, he’s so boring and overweight too.” Bonus points if you know who I’m talking about.
I was discussing the same with my wife recently. We both agreed we wish Biden had been the nominee. However, I don’t think you can say removing the HRC baggage automatically equates to a huge lead in the polls over Trump if it was Biden. Biden, as much as I love him, may not have run as effective a campaign against Trump. Say what you will regarding her not landing a knock-out punch but her campaign strategy for television ads just using Trumps own words has been brilliant and effective. Would Biden have used the same strategy? Maybe. Maybe not. Would Biden have maintained that cool composure during the debate that HRC did, showing a real strength of not wilting under pressure or attack? Maybe. Maybe not.
Anyway, HRCs “baggage” is certainly a bigger anchor than even I expected it to be. I’m shocked that in areas of Ohio that have ALWAYS gone Democratic Party we have weak support for HRC and Trump winning with union voters.
And I still maintain that Clinton’s issues are either made up or mostly irrelevant, and that Fox News and right-wing radio would make up crap or grossly exaggerate crap about whoever the Dem candidate was, and the numbers would be about the same. Look at the crap they pulled on Kerry. Look at the crap they pulled on Gore.
No, Fox would be running non-stop stories about plagiarism, or stories crafted to make him sound hypocritical about some bills he voted against because of poisonous riders injected by Republicans, or some other nonsense. He might do marginally better than HRC, maybe 7-8 points ahead instead of 5-6.
Unless you’re a multi-millionaire whose main concern is not paying taxes, you would have to be a moron to vote for Trump. Unfortunately, about 40% of Americans are morons, and they’re not going to vote for Biden or Bernie or anybody else who doesn’t pander to their stupidity.