This reminds me that there were several aspects of the SNL debate skits that were pure genius, and one of them was Kate McKinnon, playing Hillary, at various points just leaning back and watching Trump self-destruct. It was funny because it’s so true. I loved the line in the first debate skit where “Hillary” watches Trump make a complete ass of himself, and then the moderator asks her what she thinks of that. “I think I’m going to be the next President of the United States”, she says. 
Ohio’s status is entirely about it’s “bellwether” status not that it’s required to win.
Haven’t read the entire 3rd debate thread, but seriously Trumps “Nasty Woman” line is such a gift to the Clinton campaign. Obviously he was just furious at that point so he was even more un-selfaware than normal. All the Clinton campaign has to do is put together an ad showing him in the 2nd debate saying “That makes me smart” about not paying his taxes, then show him calling Clinton “Such a Nasty Woman” from the third, where she is directly talking about him getting out of not paying his taxes.
Exposes his whole personality in a nutshell, a blowhard with no substance who just resorts to insults when he gets called out. I’d love to see how Trump supporters try and spin that. Also completely puts the end to his bullshit “I’d pay taxes if you closed the loopholes”, thats exactly what Clinton was proposing to do, Donald. (Well one of them at least).
And Missouri was a bellwether from 1904 to 2004 (Wikipedia quote), but thanks to demographic shifts no more. A state is until it isn’t.
I see many families in the near future that will be spent time with.
- Miss Cleo
Considering who’ll be doing the spending with 'em, sucks to be those families,
One of many. Not even the biggest, but certainly one that will play well in these final few weeks.
“Stupid Shit Trump Has Said” is such a target-rich environment you might as well be hunting ants with a pressure washer. That presents somewhat of a conundrum if you want people to focus on the important, hateful stupid shit, the stupid shit which is indicative of deeper problems in the GOP, instead of just the funniest piece of stupid shit he’s flung most recently.
Whatever keeps him out of the White House, I suppose. We have a lot of time to work on the deeper problems.
More than that: He can’t relate to people on an adult level. Unless they’re sycophants who fall all over themselves to avoid offending him, he has to turn it into a dominance game which he must win. When he’s faced with someone he can’t intimidate or hurt, he loses it. He loses it to the point he hurts himself in his confusion. That’s why getting under his skin is super effective: He doesn’t know any attacks he can use when he’s not holding the trump card.
He’s a train engine dead-ended with its nose up against a cliff. He can’t move the whole damned mountain, but he’s too stupid to stop spinning his wheels, even as his bearings heat up and he does irreparable damage to himself and everyone close to him. He’s found something he can’t just blast his way through, something that’s big enough he can’t buy it or sue it or make it afraid of him, and he’s utterly stuck.
I just love when a bully tries to bully someone they can’t hurt.
More than that, the real billionaires are either openly ridiculing him or just ignoring him in embarrassment. Poor Donald, he’ll never gain that respect in Billionaire society he’s been craving his entire life. “It’s not fair, it’s rigged against me, no one can see my genius, but I have the best words” Flails tiny hands in frustration.
Ohio is indeed a bellwether/battleground state and, as eschereal noted, no Republican has ever won the White House without it. It is in many ways a microcosm of the country as a whole in its rural/urban balance and demographic makeup, although it is now slightly older and whiter than the country as a whole, which might explain why Trump is doing better in the polls here than he is nationwide.
Gore could’ve won in 2000 by carrying either Ohio or Florida, but he got neither. Hillary can win this year without the Buckeye State; Trump almost certainly cannot.
Good stuff - thanks!
The system doesn’t care about polls though. If there are no major irregularities reported and Trump wins, that’s that, no matter what polls or even exit polls say. The count is the count and we’ve been assured in no uncertain terms that it’s not rigged.
The rhetorical corner Democrats have backed themselves into does actually require that they concede without complaint on election day unless something majorly wrong is going on, such as evidence of hacking or widespread fraud or illegal voter suppression. They can’t say, “well, we’re not going to concede until this has been investigated thoroughly.”
Yes, that would be a good reason to hold off on conceding. The results not agreeing with the polls and no other evidence present of something being wrong would not be sufficient given Democrats’ own absolutist statements on the integrity of the process.
I thought his devastating riposte to Hillary seemed familiar. He’s been honing his debate skills by channeling David Puddy…
Or we could put it this way:
Let me get this straight. You think that Hillary Clinton, one of the wealthiest, most powerful people in the world, is secretly a vigilante who spends her nights beating Republicans to a pulp with her bare hands; and your plan, is to blackmail this person?
Something E. Klein didn’t mention is that team Hillary had the author of The Art of the Deal helping. He spent months shadowing Donald, and considers this a form of atonement for helping create the image of Donald as a brilliant businessman. I think I read somewhere that he’s the source for that bit about Donald loathing being called by his first name.
BTW, Trump can still win according to the Nowcast. He has a 13% chance.
What’s still remarkable is just how many undecideds there still are. Not counting third parties, just under 10% of voters remain undecided. Counting third parties, it’s 16%. Clinton leads by an average of 7.
Sometime before the election, I wish someone would do some analysis on these voters and how they are likely to break. Who are the undecided, are they mostly of one party or another, independents, black, white, educated, uneducated?
Understood. But if Clinton wins +4 and 320 EVs and Trump wins Ohio by +2, then it wasn’t much of a bellwether, now was it?
It’s not much of a rhetorical/logical dilemma considering none of those things have happened before in the modern era in any substantial way. What is vastly, vastly more probable is simply a race that is very close and that triggers a state law requiring a recount, which could reveal additional uncounted or missed ballots. No one is saying that one campaign or the other should preemptively forego any and all recounts or the possibility of a recount and immediately commit seppuku once CNN or Fox News projects a winner based on how things look at 10 PM EST.
Trump has a different coalition than your average Republican, so it’s expected that he’d be competitive in different states than a normal Republican. In fact, 538 has him more likely than not to win a state Obama won in 2012.
That’s not a corner - that is how the American system has worked for over 200 years. Rigging of an election to an extent to sway the vote will be pretty obvious. If that does not happen, and sane Americans stay home for some reason and Trump wins, Dems should concede. Romney did without an investigation. McCain did. Kerry did. This is why we’re not a banana republic.
Someone as far behind as Trump is certainly shouldn’t be saying it. It sounds like he’s not expressing confidence for his voters, but he really believes he is ahead. Which means he is delusional.
THat’s if there’s a recount. That too is reasonable.
But the Democrats and many establishment Republicans have been quite firm in saying that the process is not rigged, that we should have full confidence in it. If Trump wins and there is no evidence of irregularities, then Clinton has to concede quickly. Otherwise, the system might actually be rigged.