It probably won’t amount to much in the end but the media is already doing all they can to make it a big story. The GOP and Trump will do all they can to make it sound like a huge issue. It could cause some shifts in swing states but who knows. I can’t imagine the Clinton campaign sees this as nothing to worry about.
Depending on how the narrative forms over the next few hours, this could easily have an impact even if, especially if, it is unresolved on Nov. 8. It’s not likely enough to swing the election. But it could easily be enough to cost the Dems a couple of Senate seats, and maybe control of the body.
Trump is already strutting and bellowing about this at his rally in New Hampshire. He really sounds pumped about this. I expect it will dominate the news cycle over the weekend at a minimum.
In short, not good.
What the FBI/Comey says in the next few hours to the next day will have a big impact. If Comey comes out and says “this is routine – we’re required by good investigative practices to look at the new material that has been leaked publicly”, then the impact could be minimal – if he says nothing, that’s essentially confirming the Chaffetz/GOP party line that the investigation is reopening in a major way, and the impact could be larger. It might motivate depressed GOP voters that were planning on staying home out of lack of hope, but I don’t think it swings any Clinton voters to not vote or to change their vote.
The Dec Mexican Peso contract (ticker /6MZ6) was .05112 at the beginning of October (when I decided to bet against Trump by going long), .05363 beginning of this week when I got out, 5% up, had drifted down of .05318 just before the news today, ~.05211 right after, 2% instant drop, market doesn’t think it’s a total change in the race, but doesn’t think it’s nothing either. The election betting sites are more direct*, since of course there’s some other stuff affecting /6M contracts besides the election, but you can see instantly and not wait for a website to update.
*but it’s a mug’s game to bet directly on elections because of the tax treatment, ordinary income for gains no deduction for losses, nobody can be right enough to overcome that unless in a very low tax bracket. Trading futures in IRA is a feasible way if a contract aligns reasonably well with the expected outcome.
Based on twitter, Trump is pumping this up to the stratosphere – saying the FBI and the DOJ are now going to basically arrest Hillary and throw her in jail.
Comey needs to come out and clarify what he meant.
I really wish the election was this Tuesday rather than the following Tuesday. But I doubt yet another email story is likely to move the needle much. Some voters might switch back to the third parties, but there was a damning story about Jill Stein’s investments in oil companies, tobacco and defense and Gary Johnson’s running mate has all but abandoned the campaign.
Link to Stein story
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/26/jill-stein-s-ideology-says-one-thing-her-investment-portfolio-says-another.html?via=desktop&source=twitter
It was wildly irresponsible of him to write this letter 11 days before the election. It should either have said more (which may well reflect badly on Clinton but would at least be clear) or have said nothing until they draw at least preliminary conclusions. Instead, it just said there’s something new that may or not be relevant. The only use that has to anyone is partisan fodder.
From our good friends over at ThinkProgress…
https://thinkprogress.org/the-fbi-directors-letter-about-the-clinton-emails-says-a-lot-less-than-the-media-wants-you-to-aa61e81e5a97#.lk1gkyp1i
The FBI Director’s letter about the Clinton emails says a lot less than the media wants you to think
TL:DR The presumed operative word is “reopened”. But as other brilliant and acute observers have noticed, that word is an addition to the actual text.
The impact of this news of the case being re-opened will be after the election, but the impact of only four Supreme Court judges will haunt the GOP if the Supreme Court is tied at 2 and 2 on who won or more precise, “Who should’ve won”.
They don’t make the law … they just decide the law and there is no law against politicians lying now is there?
The investigation is clearly re-opened. The letter doesn’t use that word, and maybe that word has some technical meaning in FBI-land, but in ordinary English it has clearly been re-opened because they are investigating anew.
What case being reopened? Have you not read anything except the title of the thread?
Do you really think it would make a difference?
Since when is Trump running a fact-based campaign?
wait - I thought Comey and the DOJ were Hillary’s puppets ???
Operating under the assumption that Comey is an honorable public servant, I doubt he has any interest in the appearance of putting his finger on the election scale. If so, then he really needs to come out publicly and fully explain what he’s doing and why it was timed this way.
Well, that’s just it, isn’t it? He apparently believes that relevant stuff has just now come to light – and, given the assumption you mentioned, it’s entirely possible that he figures keeping it quiet until after the election is arguably putting a finger on the scale. Instead, he simply puts the information out there as it comes to his attention.
But he’s not even sure that it IS relevant. He’s just saying stuff that may or may not be relevant has come to light.
Reporting that 11 days before the election is super-odd, especially when they’ve been so tight-lipped about whether they are, say, investigating Trump’s role in the Russian hacking.
They investigated a bunch of emails on the plausible suspicion of criminal wrongdoing in handling classified info, finding insufficient evidence to recommend prosecution. Now they have more emails and will investigate them along the same lines. It’s either an extension or a new but similar case. What else is it, no matter if you use the word ‘reopen’ or not?
The Clinton War Room is going to need a better talking point than ‘he didn’t say reopening’. 
But seriously folks, Comey could conceivably clarify this in a way that reduces its impact. Maybe it’s a very small number of emails. Maybe he could say something along the lines of ‘just making sure all the i’s are dotted’. But more likely IMO there won’t be further official comment in 11 days, just like the process was pretty ‘dark’ and leak proof for months originally.
Honestly, I’d have to see evidence she was sacrificing babies on an altar of bones in order to sway my vote.
And my vote wouldn’t sway to Trump anyway.
If no comment is made, it will play into the hands of the bad-hair-guy’s team. Doubt will make undecided voters more hesitant to move toward her side.