We have glaring matches, between locals from Or-eh-GON’ Wisconsin, and a hefty group of expats from Portland, ORY’-gun.
By the way, I still let my kids out of the van with “All out for Fort Stinkin’ Desert! Don’t miss the fairly-exciting-in-its-primitive-splendor Snake Dance!”
Well to make your question slightly more realistic: would it bring sympathy or schadenfreude for another rich carpetbagger. I suspect it’d be a wash.
At a minimum, I’d find it highly appropriate if that too-tall flagpole there blew down.
I would like to think that the entire population would gather around the wreckage and laugh, but it would probably be something else.
Depends.
If the stuff in the middle ends up netting to approximately zero then the early predictor was right, but for the wrong reasons. If the stuff in the middle ends up netting to a big change away from the opening day conventional wisdom, the early predictor simply ends up wrong.
So which scenario do you want to posit?
Said another way, the early predictor ASSUMES that nothing that could possibly happen later could possibly make any significant difference. That seems a might tall and fragile assumption.
Certainly millions (billions?) of dollars and millions of man-hours are spent by each campaign in the belief that what they’re doing has some meaningful influence on the outcome. Perhaps we could persuade both sides to simply shut up and stay home and we’ll all learn on Nov 8th who’s running when we read our ballots.
You’re not seriously suggesting the latter would deliver the same results as current reality. Because that’s what the early prediction amounts to saying.
Do I have this right? Trump made a deliberate play for Nevadans votes by emphasizing that he knew how they liked their state-name pronounced (already a rather a silly diversion … especially with the “[mispronunciation] happneed to a friend of mine he was killed” :eek: )
… But then mispronounced the name of the state? :smack:
When Trump Campaign 2016 is made into a based-on-fact movie who will play the title role? John Belushi might have done a good job. Who else?
I heard that Trump was having a town hall tonight, so I tuned in to CNN. They started with it and all he did was read off a bunch of polls that show him ahead (in VA and PA, no less!) and finally CNN left it. Somehow I don’t think crushing softballs off of a tee in front of your adoring fans is going to be good prep.
And Trump has a club in “Flor-reed-ah”. It must grate on him that the stupid locals who want to vote for him can’t pronounce their state’s name correctly. I’m waiting for when he comes to “Mary-land”.
Not only can he fix America and the world; he’ll fix the dic-ti-ona-ry as well!
Noone has a vocabulay like Trump! The best vocabulary ever, a tremedous vocablary! A vocablary as less few as his hands! He must of got 3000 in he’s Verbol SAT section a lone, back in the day!
The best part is that it came AFTER that SNL sketch (it’s pronounced GINA!).
Even Hillary Clinton thought Alec Baldwin nailed it.
Well, they must be wrong–because he has the best “brian” ever! It’s all lies. He ne-VA-AH told those people how to pronounce their state’s name. Actual video of this gaff–it’s a liberal fabrication edited by Stanley Kubrick!
Suppose the following: Hurricane Matthew keeps people from Daytona to Jacksonville out of their homes for 6 weeks. Who does that help or hurt? Are the voters along the upper Atlantic coast of Florida more Democratic or Republican voters?
Mark Hamill?
I remember Scott Turow wrote about that practice in Presumed Innocent years ago. The second lawyer is called the “prover,” in case a dispute arises as to what was said.
“I know about Jim Kirk. Jim Kirk is my idol. You, Mr. Trump, are no Jim Kirk.”
Both the 2008 and 2012 Republican National Conventions were hit by severe storms and had to adjust their schedules; there was beautiful weather for the RNC in Cleveland this summer. Go figure.
I just knew that’d be Nelson!
It all depends on where it hits and the severity, but just off the top of my head I’d say it probably hurts democrats more for two reasons:
It shortens the deadline for voter registration (doubt that Florida’s mostly GOP-leaning government will extend those deadlines).
Trump voters have more financial resources to deal with a hurricane. Poorer urban voters and millennial voters might make voting less of a priority if they’re displaced and struggling to find income.
I was born in Daytona and lived in Florida until just last year. Daytona is the eastern end of the conservative I-4 corridor that runs through Orlando and ends in Tampa. Jacksonville is a southern city. That entire area is Republican. The Democratic part of Florida is primarily found in the tri county area of Broward (Fort Lauderdale), Miami Dade, and Palm Beach counties.
ETA: Having said all that, 6 weeks without power would be a ridiculously long time.
And crazy.
I agree. The area that is (supposedly) being most affected: northern vero beach, brevard county, Indian river county, daytona those are heavily white, very republican areas. The most blue parts of the state are Miami-dade-broward, most of orlando and Tampa.
Oh yeah, Jacksonville = southern Georgia, Deep South
So my best guess is this hurricane will not have a very significant effect >> BUT, the wild card is Florida’s awful awful (pro voter suppression) republican politics
Agree with the first paragraph. To the second I can only say – yes, six weeks was a ridiculous time that I was without power after Hurricane Andrew. Some of my friends were out more than three months. Right now I’m shuttered in and Matthew is due east of me. Luckily it won’t be an Andrew here. OK, sorry, end of hijack.
