Remember the other day when I said the FBIRecordsVault Twitter account, had dumped the Bill Clinton/Mark Rich story after having been silent for over a year? But then I retracted that, because I looked at their history and it HAD been tweeting. HOWEVER, looking further, it turns out that before a sudden outburst on October 30, followed by the Clinton records dump on November 1 and silence since then, it turns out that prior to the October 30 tweets, it HAD been silent since October 8, 2015. And what was the first thing that was dumped on October 30? “Fred C. Trump was a philanthropist”.
That’s a rather improper recount. It actually said “Fred C. Trump (1905-1999) was a real estate developer and philanthropist.” which is almost exactly the opening of his wikipedia page.
Both arguments are sort of right on early voting. In states where early voting is a minority of the voting (which is most states which have early voting), it isn’t super predictive. The people who vote early tend to be the ones who are never swing voters and usually the ones who are the most politically engaged. These voters aren’t representative of the broad electorate. But when a majority of the state votes early like in Washington and Oregon where almost everyone votes by mail before election day, or in Nevada where early voting is now up to like 60% of the populace, then early voting is predictive simply because when a large portion of the votes are early votes, they represent a broad swathe of the populace and are thus more or less representative.
May have a slight potential. What a bold stance. But the article mostly agrees with me in that “experts say its predictive value is not particularly high”.
Frankly, with the way Dems are hammering on early voting they better be getting more of it. Not a bit of this supports iiandyiii’s confidence in a Nevada win based on early voting.
But you have a much harder time analyzing the voting in those states: the clerk’s offices either do not pre-count, or, if they do, they do not reveal the numbers. Adding to that, in the states where there is early voting, what we are hearing are exit polls, which you really cannot do when the voters are not converging on polling sites.
Though in Nevada, apparently, the state releases the party affiliation of the registered voters. That’s how they’ve been able to determine who has been casting ballots, assuming the Democrats are voting Clinton and the Republicans voting Trump.
Is it just me or has one of the old standards been missing from this year’s rotation (“Hillary Clinton is THE MOST liberal candidate EVER!”) I remember this from the Gore, Kerry and Obama years but haven’t heard them try it this time. I kind of miss it.
I believe Donald’s “Such a nasty woman” comment will greatly remembered. It pretty much summarizes the case many have against her. They don’t like her. An aggressive, assertive, strong-fighting woman like that.