The VP-elect becomes president-elect if the president-elect dies, per the 20th amendment, by pretty direct inference if he or she is incapacitated per the 27th, and so by reasonable inference IMO also if the president-elect resigns alive and well. Under the 25th a VP who ascends to the presidency nominates a replacement VP to be confirmed by the Senate, as Ford did with Rockefeller after Nixon resigned. The speaker only becomes president if both the sitting president and VP die or are incapacitated, so Obama/Biden till Jan, and Pence and named VP after that, assuming Ryan is speaker throughout.
IMO a sign of the current Trump story getting overblown is serious talk of him pulling out, rather than just spin to that effect to ‘make people realize how terrible this is’. The current story, I have no idea what other stories will follow. But I don’t think Trump thinks this is fatal, and has been more or less seriously or sarcastically or again spinnishly pointed out, it makes dubious political sense for the Republicans to push him out. Who really thinks the Dems would be threatened if the GOP melts down attempting some hash where Trump is somehow convinced to run but resign for ‘the good of the party’ (which he’s not even really a member of) or some gteed electoral disaster of telling people not to vote for their candidate who remains in the race? I think the question answers itself: not gonna happen, no political party would do that, again as the story stands now.
Agreed on both counts: Trump won’t see that this is fatal, and the GOP has more to lose than to gain by trying to expel him.
But Trump’s adult children may well see that this is fatal. Their hopes for family wealth were pinned on the loot they could glean with Presidential power. Horrifyingly for them, the current prospects, after a Trump loss, are grim. The family name may have lost nearly all its value, and they could be reduced to running golf courses and selling the Trump name for peanuts overseas (consumers in second and third-world countries might still be impressed by it and makers of toilet paper et al might pay the family a few bucks for its use).
This is not a pleasant prospect for the Trumps.
So what can they do? My guess is that they will cut their losses by making a deal with the GOP: have the big donors cough up a few billion dollars in exchange for Trump withdrawing and endorsing the new Presidential team of Paul Ryan and Mike Pence. The electors will vote Ryan/Pence if assured no “faithless” accusations will be lodged. And Trump will, in exchange for the cash, tell his fans to vote the straight GOP ticket, including all the down-ballot races. Peace will reign.
Trump will be offered a well-crafted cover story to save his pride: perhaps it will be said that Melania was just diagnosed with a terminal illness, and he has to step aside to tend to her. All the requisite supportive documents will be ready to hand out to the skeptics and the story will pass.
And now he will have the huge settlement to play with (and keep his children in big-game hunts). He can tell himself he’ll launch his new network and take down Fox News, and that will keep him relatively happy.
But not this. Why would anyone toss away a billion bucks to have the GOP lose with someone else? The first rally Trump does after the debate will convince him that everyone loves him. The kids have failed to keep him under control so far - I don’t think they can convince him to drop out.
Rich Republicans who don’t like Trump will want him to fail big in order to purge the party of his supporters.
That will leak in about a millisecond. And they better find some doctor more believable than crazy Dr. Lebowski to sell this story. His base will either think he sold out or get convinced he is being held hostage and will freak out.
I agree that the GOP’s only hope is to buy Trump off, and luckily for them, he’s eminently negotiable.
But I don’t think that would save the GOP at the voting booth. I think there would be too much confusion, what with Trump’s name being on the ballot, still, and no real time to get any sort of competent campaign in place to counter the Clinton juggernaut. There is no Republican ground game in place; Donald’s never bothered to build it. The Republicans can’t suddenly get one going in the next few weeks.
Plus, like I said, if the RNC picks anyone other than Cruz they’re going to have a lawsuit, so that’s more confusion and money down the drain. Plus, nothing they can do will placate Trump’s feral fans. So there’s another fight on a different front.
You just can’t throw a presidential campaign together at the last minute and hope to succeed, even if your opponent is the literal Hildabeast of the Manpocolypse.
I think that unless even worse comes down the pipeline for the GOP, keeping Trump is actually the smarter move (even if they could get rid of him). I really don’t think they could win the Presidency with anyone else at this very late date and I honestly believe they’d face more negative feedback from Republican voters by ousting him. The will of the people not being represented an all. If they were going to do that, it should have been earlier.
So the only potential for presidential victory (IMO) is Trump. So how much do they lose by keeping him that they haven’t already lost by having him and him having done and said what he’s done and said? Including 2018 races. Think about the base - they’ve not been inclined to alienate this segment in the past. Though some individual politicians will.
With individual GOP politicians renouncing him, they can get that credit (particularly those that represent moderate areas) without “denying the will of the people.” As long as he loses, though, I think most people won’t care so much whether or not a politician backed him (after he won primary) because it can be written off as “s/he had to support the party’s candidate; that’s just the way it is” by most of the population, the ones that aren’t that into politics.
Without Trump being caught in the act of committing either violent crime or a very film-worthy one, I think it’d cost the GOP more than it would gain them. At least in the short-to-medium-term, which is often what politicians think of. If they play it right, and Trump loses, he can both get the blame for everything, and be forgotten in two years. He was never a real Republican, anyway.
If Trump wins…I don’t even know.
Cue Trump-conspiring-with-Hilary conspiracy theories from a small set and “the vote was rigged” from another.
Not to mention that all the ad buys on television from here to November have likely already been finalized, the dates for the two remaining debates will have passed before any replacement to Trump is nominated by the RNC, and Hillary’s campaign certainly won’t agree to any last minute ad hoc new debates. Any replacement campaign won’t have nearly as much opportunity for exposure and outreach, let alone the time to do additional fundraising necessary to print tens/hundreds of thousands of new signs and other typical campaign branding.
Also, a whole new campaign organization and infrastructure would have to be developed, including a new campaign manager, team of advisors, and arrangements made to conduct campaign tours and rallies. There is just too much of a logistical hurdle for everything to come together with less than a month to election day (by the time a replacement is named), even if the RNC could still cover a lot of it as they are currently doing for the Trump campaign. The Republican calls for Trump to step aside seem to be entirely about optics and not a feasible solution.
not true. Republicans give lots of stuff for free. On average Republicans give 30% - 100% more of their income to charitable causes than democrats. The difference is they give their own stuff away. Democrats prefer to give other people’s stuff for free.
Of course what that shows really is how tightwad Trump** is an anomaly among wealthy Republicans**. No wonder he is no longer seen as “role model” by some supporters.
I don’t see Trump leaving the race. If he didn’t get that he lost the debate and doesn’t get stuff like debate prep, he’s not going to get that he’s down in the polls. Donald Trump could actually paint his shit gold, stamp his name on it, sell it to people, and actually over time believe that his shit is really gold and not feces. He’s a pathological salesman.
I think your are overestimating how much this loss will hurt Trump’s brand. Trump has come back from several failed business ventures and a few bankruptcies. Win or lose, Trump has gained millions of new supporters. Trump’s brand will now just appeal to a different crowd. Instead of people who like tacky billionaires, now Trump will appeal to whatever you want to describe the people who make up his base. Trump will easily find a way to make money off them.
His children also gained a good deal of publicity from this and have come across more favorably than Trump has (especially Ivanka). Remember that Sarah Palin quit being the Governor of Alaska because she could make more money selling books and giving speeches. Trump’s children will do just fine.
That depends on what you consider a “charitable cause”. A large chunk of Republican charity is to their own churches, and if you cut that out of the figures, the lead vanishes.
Get Pence to withdraw on Monday and announce that for the good of the country and the party, HE is running for President.
Start a massive PR campaign (either through the national GOP or a new PAC) stating that a vote for Trump will be a vote for Pence. Think of a catchy slogan. Have, say, 50 Trump electors pledge their support for Pence. (The ones in states where they are not bound).
Get a sufficient number of Congressman to say that they will vote for Pence in case no person gets a majority of the EC votes.
Then Trump can do whatever he wants because any vote for him will be a vote for Pence.
Then:
When the EC votes, if Trump AND Pence can get enough votes to deny Hillary 269 votes, (Say the final tally is Hillary 242, Pence 200, Trump 93) then election goes to the House of Representatives who votes for Pence.