Please don’t fight the hypothetical.
This audio of Trump from 11 years ago seems to not be going away and for many Republicans it was the final straw. Consider if it is still an issue and Trump refuses to drop out. The Republican National Committee says it will “suggest” that Republican electors will vote for Pence as President and many electors® publicly agree along with many Representatives if it goes to the House.
What happens election day?
Hillary is elected President.
Hillary wins by more than she would have the day before as Trump supporters stay home.
You win the internet!! 
Not trying to fight the hypothetical - but can the RNC direct Electors to do anything? Aren’t they governed by state laws?
But assuming the hypothetical, then I agree with Jophiel. The Republican party would go down in a single, seething, ball of infighting and confusion.
There’s only a handful of states with laws that bind electors to vote for their guy (otherwise “faithless electors” wouldn’t be a thing). It’s uncertain whether or not those laws would hold up if tested and, I believe, the punishment is a fine so it’s not certain whether the vote could be revoked. Also, some of the states are blue states so those likely wouldn’t be in play anyway.
It is an open question if state laws mandating how electors vote would be Constitutional. IMO they are unconstitutional, the Legislature can decide how to select electors but it would be tough to read the Constitution to force someone on how to vote.
I’m betting that Pence is contemplating withdrawing from the ticket at this point. Trump has given him an out with the release of the tape. He can leave the ticket based on his religious views without alienating the evangelical base.
He has to be thinking: “We cannot win this election, which means I will be tarred with the same ‘loser’ brush as Trump, making any chance of a run in 2020 out of the question. If by some miracle we win, Trump will go down in flames in 2020, and take me with him. If I get out now, I may be able to take on Hilary in four years.”
Not to fight the hypo, but the RNC telling electors to vote for someone wouldn’t have much effect. They don’t have to do what the RNC says, no matter what the RNC says.
Even if Trump were to withdraw (he won’t), I don’t think it is automatic that Pence would replace him at the top of the GOP ticket. Besides, it’s only a few weeks until the election - it isn’t practical to replace anyone, and trying an end run isn’t going to work for the GOP either.
For better or worse, Trump is the Republican nominee for President. The only vaguely possible scenario is that Trump announces that, if elected, he will resign immediately upon being sworn in. He won’t do that, nor will Pence withdraw as VP nominee.
It’s too late. Things are as they are, and we are going to have to deal with them as they are. God help us.
Regards,
Shodan
You’d get some electors voting for Pence and some voting for Trump.
I suspect that the rules regarding write ins will be fatal in swing states for the GOP. Many states don’t count write ins. Others have rules about how the name has to be written in (e.g. Pence may not be specific enough). Write ins are going to pick different Republicans than Pence - Cruz, Kasisch and Romney will certainly get votes. Educating our population in a month about rules that are poorly understood, vary across fifty states and for which there really isn’t a good process to deal with will be an impossible task. But most people believe they can write in a candidate and have it counted.
No way, but I will admit that was also my first thought.
Staying on the ticket is win-win-win.
If he stays and Trump gets hammered, it ain’t his fault. But he gets points for loyalty.
If he stays and Trump quits in a huff, he has marginally better chances of being elected and can even stand on the ashes of Trump’s mess to distance himself from them.
If he stays and the GOP loses, he’s got that much more clout and chops for 2020.
If he leaves… he’s a Palin except to Democrats who might applaud him but would never vote for him.
Nope. Staying and staying “pure” is his best possible course, for this cycle and the next.
Three quarters of the population will say “Electoral College? What’s that?”
Someone may try to explain that they elect the President and the public will go “Whoa! Why are they ignoring my vote and letting a bunch of college professors pick the President?”
Pence has confirmed that he’s in for the duration -
Dunno, but I think that a major party VP nominee dropping out less than a month before the election would pretty much kill his chances of ever becoming a national nominee for said party ever again. I could be wrong, but I can’t imagine that his dropping out now would be better for his future prospects than simply losing.
Yeah-Right after Trump said that he and Pence hadn’t been talking and that he disagreed with him on policy, Pence texted congrats for Trump’s “win”.
Whack! “Thank you sir! May I have another?” Whack! “Thank you sir! May I have another?”
I guess you mean Palin quitting as governor, and I agree there’s no way that helped her (though it didn’t make her disappear immediately as a powerful figure in the GOP, by now she pretty much has). But there was no way to construe her quitting as having directly helped the Democrats. In Pence’s case there would be.
Threads here lately about Trump or Pence quitting are by Democrats who would like to see the Republicans hurt. Which gives you your answer as to whether the Republicans would actually do stuff like that: of course not, as things stand now*. The only caveat is wrt Trump himself, who is not really a Republican, the party’s interests per se have no particular relevance to him, but there’s no upside for him personally to quit either, that I can see. But Pence is a Republican. His political future depends on working within that party. VP quits is a disaster for that party, which tends to outweigh any theoretical tactical advantage for Pence to do it. It’s a very high bar to get over, would take way more than the situation lately.
*never say never, if there are much worse Trump tapes.
Of course Hillary wins, but that’s obvious.
But let’s just add to the hypothetical that there’s a massive salmonella outbreak at Whole Foods across the country, so Dems are all home throwing up instead of voting on Election Day, and somehow the Republican presidential ticket - however it may be displayed on the ballot - wins.
If the Republican electors all decided to vote for Pence, he’s the President. Period. End of story. I hope it would lead to the electoral college being abolished, but whatever.
I think it is wrong that states would seek to punish unfaithful electors. And I think leveling state charges based on a Federal duty is wrong, to the same extent that states are not allowed to impose term limits on Federal officials because the Constitution ought to be the ultimate authority on how Federal elections work. And since the Constitution pretty clearly doesn’t limit how electors may act, then states shouldn’t be able to impose their own restrictions.
You’re probably right, and I see below that he’s still being a cheerleader. I think that it will damage him in the future, when he will be attacked for supporting the worst presidential candidate in American history.
In theory, it depends on who controls the House and Senate.
If both are Republican controlled, then the states that vote for Trump can have “alternative” lists of electors that vote for Pence, and it would be up to the House and Senate (or, if they split, each of those state’s governors) to decide which were counted.
If both are Democrat controlled, I wouldn’t be surprised if the same thing happens, only for the alternative electors to vote for Clinton on the grounds that she got more votes in those states than Pence.
Of course, there is another alternative; I believe the saying is, “Call the Bulgarian embassy and see if they have any spare umbrellas.”
Only if there were two slates of electors. If there were one slate and they voted Pence instead of Trump those votes would be unquestionable.