So here is a question pertaining to the hypothetical. Most electors are party faithful that have worked their way up the ranks. If they vote “Trump” despite the party’s suggestion is there any blowback? Would a split in the electors be the start of the party splitting?
In this hypothetical there will only be about 100 Republican electors. No one will care much how they vote so there will be no blowback.
Or the other way around. Some of the electors will be people like county party chairs, and some of them will come from places that were heavily pro-Trump in the primaries. What happens when they go back home after having stolen the election away from their area’s guy?
For real.
Historically, it hasn’t fared well for the party that decides to change horses in mid-stream.
Presidential death during the election process
1872 - Greely vs Grant. Greely died, but he was doing so badly in the polls that the DNC didn’t even bother to name his successor. Grant won handily.
1912 - Taft/Sherman vs Wilson/Marshall. Sherman died just before the election. The RNC scheduled a meeting to discuss a replacement VP for a week after the election, but it turned out to be moot - Wilson won the election.
1972 - McGovern/Eagleton vs Nixon/Agnew. Eagleton was faced with a scandal when it was revealed that he had undergone electric shock therapy, and stepped down. The DNC managed to replace him on the ticket since it was still early August, but it didn’t matter, as Nixon walked away with the win.
It’s possible that the party that changes candidates could win, but the historical precedent is a big hurdle. Not to mention that these were all candidates that weren’t in the way - Sherman and Greely were in no position to argue, and Eagleton willingly stepped aside. Would Trump be willing to give up? It seems unlikely. Even if the RNC were to officially renounce him, all that would result in is a split ticket and a clear win for Clinton.