After the vice presidential debate, one theme I heard is that many Republicans wished it was Pence at the top of the ticket. As has been noted in the thread about the stretch run, some Republican officeholders are rescinding their endorsement of Trump and asking for him to step down. I’m assuming that if that does happen it would most likely be Pence that is tapped as the new nominee. Should Clinton supporters be at all concerned about this possibility? How well do you all think that Pence would do at the top of the ticket? I’m assuming a scenario where Trump has a massive breakdown during the debate tomorrow night and come Monday Reince Priebus is making the rounds announcing Pence as the new nominee. How do you all think something like this would play out? Is it even worth worrying about this possibility?
Trump would still be at the top of the ballot. State rules differ on how electors can vote – some require them to vote for the candidate on the ballot, which means electoral votes for Trump.
With that in mind, I don’t see how Pence could possibly win. When you add in disgruntled Trump fanatics who stay home or vote Johnson or something and you could have a landslide.
Oh, my! Oh, dear me! A “landslide”, you say? Dreadful prospect looms!
Don’t forget the confusion it will cause - “who am I voting for - it says Trump, I don’t want to vote for Trump.”
Trump’s most hardcore supporters would not take his removal well, Pence would lose even worse than Trump would.
Trump can’t quit. The voting has already started in some states. Plus, the ballots are probably already printed. Trump can resign if he wins, but that’s looking less and less likely. It’s not a worry, at least, not until 2020.
I believe the first thing that would happen is that the RNC would be immediately sued by Ted Cruz and maybe even John Kasich. Just because Pence is the VP choice of the winner, doesn’t make him the runner up in the Republican nomination race.
But yeah, it’s not going to happen. It’s too late in the process.
Trump has already vowed to stay in the race. People are already voting, and there’s no practical way to remove him from the ballot. I can see conservatives pushing a Pence write-in campaign as a face-saving gesture (#writeinpence is already turning up on Twitter), and Stein and Johnson might pick up a few more votes, but none of that will amount to much. So no, it’s not worth worrying about.
No.
And that is a perfectly reasonable and sensible way of analyzing the situation. And therein lies the weakness.
Just curious. Assuming Trump won, and Trump bails, leaving Pence at the top, would Ryan (as 3rd in line) be the VP?
The beautiful part of this is, I think Donald Trump will still have a loyal following of 30-35 percent of the electorate and maybe even 35-40 percent. Electorally? Yeah, he’s toast.
But keep your eyes on the prize. Donald’s 30-35 percent could still be enough to ignite a civil war in the republican party, and in that we can all rejoice.
If Trump bailed before the electoral college voted, then the President and the VP would be whoever the Republican electors chose, which would presumably be coordinated by the national party. If Trump bailed after the electoral college voted, then there would be no VP until such time as the new President nominated one and got the nomination confirmed by the Senate (which would, by that time, be the new Senate, since they’re sworn in before the President is). If, during the time in which there was no VP, the new President died or otherwise left office, then the current rules of succession would result in Ryan becoming President, but without ever being VP.
EDIT:
Unless that civil war is literal.
I’ve often thought that Trump was the only major candidate who could lose to Clinton. Unfortunately it might be too late for someone else to step in.
No. It doesn’t work that way. And people who are saying that Trump can’t quit because voting has already started are wrong as well. Remember your high school Government class, people! You aren’t voting for Trump - you are voting for a slate of electors in your state who are pledged to Trump. If Trump bails, then those electors are free to vote for whomever they wish, or whomever their state GOP committee instructs them to vote for. They could vote for absolutely anybody if their state doesn’t have an “unfaithful elector” law, and even then I don’t think those laws cover someone quitting the race at this point in time. Pence doesn’t automatically go to the top of the ticket, either. The state committee could tell their electors to all vote for Ted Cruz.
Remember that there are readers who are not American citizens and thus need this explained to them.
I think the great white hope for the GOP would have to be someone who has given perhaps managed to keep his distance from Trump yet managed to garner some tea party and gun rights love. Pence ain’t their guy. Cruz would be that guy but everyone in the GOP hates his guts. I could possibly see Paul Ryan becoming the de facto nominee.
But we’re getting ahead of ourselves – Trump has to quit first. That hasn’t happened, and maybe the Donald deludes himself into believing he can ride this thing out. I already suspect tomorrow’s debate will be another disaster though. The pressure would only continue to mount but I could see him staying in the race just to spite the GOP. There’s absolutely no loyalty there at all, so if he decides that the GOP is his enemy number one again then he’ll stay in and throw the race for Hillary. Hell he might even end up endorsing her.
Ted Cruz would probably have lost to Clinton as well, given that his unlikeability is pretty substantial too and he has a significant number of haters in GOP/RNC circles for his feuds with party leaders, particularly in the Senate, in the past few years. He’s smarmily smug, which seriously detracts from his considerable debating ability, takes some pretty extreme positions that would be big disadvantages with the general electorate, and he is widely blamed for being the chief supporter and enabler of the unpopular 2013 government shutdown.
The grassroots GOPers might have been more comfortable with Cruz, but he makes Mitt Romney look like Santa Claus.
A “faithless elector” law would IMO be moot if the nominee is no longer a candidate (by death or resignation), but yes it would perhaps be a novel question as to whether whether the national committee could bind the state committees to the “consensus” candidate and then in turn have the state committees bind the electors under that same law to that person.
This.
Trumpy supporters are people who want to vote for an asshole and who is not a politician. Pence, who’s pretty much anti-women as Orangeman is, won’t stand a chance.